The Sherwin-Williams Company

SHWNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

Email me when the SHW thesis changes

Evidence-based analysis, not personalized investment advice. Every alert email carries an unsubscribe link.

Follow on X
$349.89
−$0.70 (−0.20%)Today 1M +7.96%
After hours$349.890.00%

Updated Nov 13, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$350.59
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$348.92–$353.96
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.0M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 13, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 28 projected
Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$289.86–$377.77
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own SHW if Sherwin-Williams converts a large, durable professional and retail paint franchise, vertical manufacturing and a dense U.S. store network into pricing power, high cash generation and repeatable capital returns — provided it sustains pricing and.

SHW price history

Latest price$349.89Today−$0.70 (-0.20%)
SHW +8.79%S&P 500 -2.05%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Sherwin's dense Paint Stores network and professional customer focus provide durable pricing power that can offset volume softness and drive top-line resilience.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Consolidated Net sales (revenue) increased 2.1% to $23.574 billion in 2025. If pricing power holds, revenue and margins will remain stable and cash returns (dividends/buybacks) continue; if it breaks, revenue growth will require higher volumes and margins will compress.

    Watch: Major retail customers (Home Depot / Lowe's) expanding private-label assortments and promotional intensity that shift share away from branded product.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Consolidated Net sales (revenue) increased 2.1% to $23.574 billion in 2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Vertical manufacturing via the Consumer Brands Group and intersegment flows gives Sherwin an ability to protect and expand gross profit when pricing is available, supporting margin resilience versus stand-alone distributors.HoldingMateriality: High

    Gross profit increased to $11.5155 billion in 2025 from $11.1951 billion in 2024. If integration continues to let Sherwin pass costs and manage mix, gross profit and margins hold; if integration fails or raw-material/tariff shocks outpace price realization, gross profit will erode and margins will compress.

    Watch: A large, sustained spike in key inputs (titanium dioxide, resins) combined with tariff changes that prevent passing costs through.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Gross profit increased to $11.5155 billion in 2025 from $11.1951 billion in 2024.

    Open source ↗
  • High operating cash flow from recurring coatings demand supports a balanced capital allocation: targeted store growth, tuck-in M&A and shareholder returns without meaningful dilution.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Operating cash flow was $3.452 billion in 2025, up from $3.153 billion in 2024. If operating cash flow stays high, management can fund growth and returns while keeping leverage manageable; if cash flow weakens, the company may cut buybacks/dividends or take on higher-cost debt, compressing EPS and valuation.

    Watch: Rising interest expense (management expects ~ $85 million increase in 2026) and higher debt service that reduce free cash available for returns.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow was $3.452 billion in 2025, up from $3.153 billion in 2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Geographic and product diversification (Suvinil acquisition and three reportable segments) reduces dependence on any single market, but value hinges on executing cross-border integration and managing currency/translation risk.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Net income was $2.5685 billion in 2025 (stable vs. prior years) while reporting increased Latin America sales following the Suvinil acquisition. If management integrates Suvinil and Latin America performance stabilizes (or hedges are effective), consolidated profitability benefits; if currency devaluations and integration miscues occur, consolidated net income and margins will be impaired.

    Watch: Significant devaluation in Latin American currencies increasing local cost base and reducing translated revenue/profit.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Net income was $2.5685 billion in 2025 (stable vs. prior years) while reporting increased Latin America sales following the Suvinil.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Sherwin's dense Paint Stores network and professional customer focus provide durable pricing power that can offset volume softness and drive top-line resilience. If pricing power holds, revenue and margins will remain stable and cash returns (dividends/buybacks) continue; if it breaks, revenue growth will require higher volumes and margins will compress.

Vertical manufacturing via the Consumer Brands Group and intersegment flows gives Sherwin an ability to protect and expand gross profit when pricing is available, supporting margin resilience versus stand-alone distributors. If integration continues to let Sherwin pass costs and manage mix, gross profit and margins hold; if integration fails or raw-material/tariff shocks outpace price realization, gross profit will erode and margins will compress.

High operating cash flow from recurring coatings demand supports a balanced capital allocation: targeted store growth, tuck-in M&A and shareholder returns without meaningful dilution. If operating cash flow stays high, management can fund growth and returns while keeping leverage manageable; if cash flow weakens, the company may cut buybacks/dividends or take on higher-cost debt, compressing EPS and valuation.

Geographic and product diversification (Suvinil acquisition and three reportable segments) reduces dependence on any single market, but value hinges on executing cross-border integration and managing currency/translation risk. If management integrates Suvinil and Latin America performance stabilizes (or hedges are effective), consolidated profitability benefits; if currency devaluations and integration miscues occur, consolidated net income and margins will be impaired.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Sherwin-Williams converts a large, durable professional and retail paint franchise, vertical manufacturing and a dense U.S. store network into pricing power, high cash generation and repeatable capital returns — provided it sustains pricing and.

Evidence assessed Oct 30, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Sherwin Williams Co

Where the evidence on Sherwin Williams Co stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 30, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Sherwin's dense Paint Stores network and professional customer focus provide durable pricing power that can offset volume softness and drive top-line resilience.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Vertical manufacturing via the Consumer Brands Group and intersegment flows gives Sherwin an ability to protect and expand gross profit when pricing is available, supporting margin resilience versus stand-alone distributors.

    sec.gov ↗

  • High operating cash flow from recurring coatings demand supports a balanced capital allocation: targeted store growth, tuck-in M&A and shareholder returns without meaningful dilution.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Geographic and product diversification (Suvinil acquisition and three reportable segments) reduces dependence on any single market, but value hinges on executing cross-border integration and managing currency/translation risk.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Major retail customers (Home Depot / Lowe's) expanding private-label assortments and promotional intensity that shift share away from branded product.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A large, sustained spike in key inputs (titanium dioxide, resins) combined with tariff changes that prevent passing costs through.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Rising interest expense (management expects ~ $85 million increase in 2026) and higher debt service that reduce free cash available for returns.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Sherwin Williams Co

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

Loading the break-condition record for Sherwin Williams Co.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Sherwin Williams Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Sherwin Williams Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-29: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Sherwin Williams Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Major retail customers (Home Depot / Lowe's) expanding private-label assortments and promotional intensity that shift share away from branded product.
  • A large, sustained spike in key inputs (titanium dioxide, resins) combined with tariff changes that prevent passing costs through.
  • Rising interest expense (management expects ~ $85 million increase in 2026) and higher debt service that reduce free cash available for returns.
  • Significant devaluation in Latin American currencies increasing local cost base and reducing translated revenue/profit.

SHW news

Loading headlines…

Financial statements

SHW income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

SHW: quick answers

When does Sherwin Williams Co (SHW) report earnings next?
Sherwin Williams Co's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is SHW's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 6.1M SHW shares were sold short, 2.52% of its shares outstanding, down 7.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SHW short interest history
Which well-known investors own SHW?
6 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported SHW shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Viking Global Investors (Andreas Halvorsen), 3.8%; Maverick Capital, 1.8%; D1 Capital Partners (Dan Sundheim), 1.2%. Fund portfolios

SHW in well-known investors’ portfolios

6 of 37 funds reported SHW shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors3.8%$1.3B+24.5%Q2 2026
Maverick Capital1.8%$198M+46.8%Q2 2026
Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners1.2%$431M+164.4%Q2 2026
Chase ColemanTiger Global Management0.37%$88.5MNo changeQ2 2026
Tom GaynerMarkel Group0.24%$30.4MNo changeQ3 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.00%$273K−93.0%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

ScoutJUST THIS STORY

LET’S MAKE THIS USEFUL · 1 OF 5

How would you like me to explain this?

Tell me what you want from this read. Start with a quick note, then adjust the details. Your other stories stay as they are.

We’ll remember your view of this story. The published article stays unchanged.

THIS STORY’S READING VIEWStandard · The whole picture

Clear explanations with context. Both sides of the evidence.