Stifel Financial
SFNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $73.12 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $72.39–$73.79 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.0M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 27 projected Projected for 2027-01-27 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $65.40–$89.83 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own SF if recruiting, deal flow and NII remain strong and legal/regulatory shocks do not recur.
SF price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Organic advisor recruiting and small tuck-in acquisitions will increase client assets under administration and recurring wealth-management fees, which in turn will sustain mid-single-digit+ revenue growth independent of volatile transactional revenue.StrengtheningMateriality: High
MD&A: "Global Wealth Management segment posted record net revenues" and firm-wide net revenues increased 11.3% to $5.53 billion in 2025. If true, it smooths revenue, raises predictable fee income and reduces earnings cyclicality; if false, Stifel remains highly exposed to transaction cycles and revenue will be more volatile.
Watch: Large wirehouses or independent networks aggressively outcompete on payouts and platform, causing elevated advisor attrition.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: "Global Wealth Management segment posted record net revenues" and firm-wide net revenues increased 11.3% to $5.53 billion in 2025.
Open source ↗The Bryan Garnier acquisition and an active investment banking pipeline will expand European and sector coverage, increasing fee-based investment banking revenue and diversifying transactional income beyond the U.S. markets.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A: "investment banking revenues" were a primary contributor to 2025 revenue growth and the company acquired Bryan Garnier (June 2, 2025) to expand European technology and healthcare coverage. If investment banking revenues grow and diversify, they amplify top-line growth and improve cross-sell; if deal activity stalls, Stifel's revenue will remain sensitive to U.S. market cycles.
Watch: A sharp slowdown in ECM/M&A activity in Europe/US that reduces fees.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: "investment banking revenues" were a primary contributor to 2025 revenue growth and the company acquired Bryan Garnier (June 2.
Open source ↗A significant interest rate-sensitive asset base at Stifel's bank subsidiaries will sustain net interest income and drive elevated operating cash flow, providing the financial flexibility to fund acquisitions and capital returns.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
MD&A: notes a "significant interest rate-sensitive asset base at our bank subsidiaries" and a strong investment banking pipeline entering 2026. Strong NII and cash generation reduce reliance on equity capital for growth and support EPS compounding; if NII collapses, cash-funded M&A and buybacks become harder without diluting returns.
Watch: A rapid easing cycle or deposit outflows that compress net interest margins materially, reducing NII.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: notes a "significant interest rate-sensitive asset base at our bank subsidiaries" and a strong investment banking pipeline entering 2026.
Open source ↗Large, discrete legal or regulatory provisions can move GAAP EPS materially; avoiding further adverse FINRA/arbitration outcomes is necessary for EPS recovery to previous levels.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
MD&A: net income available to common shareholders decreased in 2025 and was "negatively impacted by elevated provisions for legal matters of $1.16 per diluted common share" related to a FINRA Arbitration Panel decision. Recurrent or larger legal charges erase earnings even when underlying revenue is growing; if legal risk is controlled, EPS can resume compounding from the existing revenue base.
Watch: New FINRA rulings, class actions, or regulatory enforcement that impose larger-than-expected damages or remediation costs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: net income available to common shareholders decreased in 2025 and was "negatively impacted by elevated provisions for legal matters.
Open source ↗Operating cash and liquidity give Stifel the optionality to pursue opportunistic tuck-ins and to fund strategic initiatives without diluting shareholders, but continued elevated operating cash flow is required to sustain that strategy.HoldingMateriality: Medium
MD&A: the company paid cash from operations for the April 7, 2025 and June 2, 2025 acquisitions. If cash and operating cash flow stay high, management can self-fund acquisitions and capital returns; if not, growth may require capital markets activity or cutbacks.
Watch: Material acquisition(s) or large capital return programs that deplete cash reserves or force leverage increases beyond comfort thresholds.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: the company paid cash from operations for the April 7, 2025 and June 2, 2025 acquisitions.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Organic advisor recruiting and small tuck-in acquisitions will increase client assets under administration and recurring wealth-management fees, which in turn will sustain mid-single-digit+ revenue growth independent of volatile transactional revenue. If true, it smooths revenue, raises predictable fee income and reduces earnings cyclicality; if false, Stifel remains highly exposed to transaction cycles and revenue will be more volatile.
The Bryan Garnier acquisition and an active investment banking pipeline will expand European and sector coverage, increasing fee-based investment banking revenue and diversifying transactional income beyond the U.S. markets. If investment banking revenues grow and diversify, they amplify top-line growth and improve cross-sell; if deal activity stalls, Stifel's revenue will remain sensitive to U.S. market cycles.
A significant interest rate-sensitive asset base at Stifel's bank subsidiaries will sustain net interest income and drive elevated operating cash flow, providing the financial flexibility to fund acquisitions and capital returns. Strong NII and cash generation reduce reliance on equity capital for growth and support EPS compounding; if NII collapses, cash-funded M&A and buybacks become harder without diluting returns.
Large, discrete legal or regulatory provisions can move GAAP EPS materially; avoiding further adverse FINRA/arbitration outcomes is necessary for EPS recovery to previous levels. Recurrent or larger legal charges erase earnings even when underlying revenue is growing; if legal risk is controlled, EPS can resume compounding from the existing revenue base.
Operating cash and liquidity give Stifel the optionality to pursue opportunistic tuck-ins and to fund strategic initiatives without diluting shareholders, but continued elevated operating cash flow is required to sustain that strategy. If cash and operating cash flow stay high, management can self-fund acquisitions and capital returns; if not, growth may require capital markets activity or cutbacks.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
recruiting, deal flow and NII remain strong and legal/regulatory shocks do not recur.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Stifel Financial
Where the evidence on Stifel Financial stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Organic advisor recruiting and small tuck-in acquisitions will increase client assets under administration and recurring wealth-management fees, which in turn will sustain mid-single-digit+ revenue growth independent of volatile transactional revenue.
The Bryan Garnier acquisition and an active investment banking pipeline will expand European and sector coverage, increasing fee-based investment banking revenue and diversifying transactional income beyond the U.S. markets.
A significant interest rate-sensitive asset base at Stifel's bank subsidiaries will sustain net interest income and drive elevated operating cash flow, providing the financial flexibility to fund acquisitions and capital returns.
Large, discrete legal or regulatory provisions can move GAAP EPS materially; avoiding further adverse FINRA/arbitration outcomes is necessary for EPS recovery to previous levels.
Operating cash and liquidity give Stifel the optionality to pursue opportunistic tuck-ins and to fund strategic initiatives without diluting shareholders, but continued elevated operating cash flow is required to sustain that strategy.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large wirehouses or independent networks aggressively outcompete on payouts and platform, causing elevated advisor attrition.
A sharp slowdown in ECM/M&A activity in Europe/US that reduces fees.
A rapid easing cycle or deposit outflows that compress net interest margins materially, reducing NII.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Stifel Financial
No break has crossed Stifel Financial’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Stifel Financial filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-21: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Stifel Financial filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-24: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Stifel Financial filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-27: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large wirehouses or independent networks aggressively outcompete on payouts and platform, causing elevated advisor attrition.
- A sharp slowdown in ECM/M&A activity in Europe/US that reduces fees.
- A rapid easing cycle or deposit outflows that compress net interest margins materially, reducing NII.
- New FINRA rulings, class actions, or regulatory enforcement that impose larger-than-expected damages or remediation costs.
- Material acquisition(s) or large capital return programs that deplete cash reserves or force leverage increases beyond comfort thresholds.
SF news
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Financial statements
SF income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
SF: quick answers
- When does Stifel Financial (SF) report earnings next?
- Stifel Financial's next results are projected for January 27, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 21, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is SF's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.9M SF shares were sold short, 3.31% of its shares outstanding, up 14.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SF short interest history
- Which well-known investors own SF?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported SF shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
SF in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported SF shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.00% | $1.1M | −62.3% | Q2 2026 |