Southern Copper
SCCONYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $170.36 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $170.48–$174.45 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 899.3K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $114.60–$218.59 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own SCCO if copper demand and operating continuity in Peru/Mexico justify paying for peak-cycle economics rather than normalized mining profits.
SCCO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Global copper scarcity and electrification-linked demand keep buyers competing for Southern Copper’s output, so the company’s integrated copper position continues to convert market tightness into sales rather than losing relevance to substitution or new supply.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased from $9.896 billion in FY2023 to $11.433 billion in FY2024 and $13.420 billion in FY2025. If this holds, revenue has structural support beyond a one-year commodity price move; if it breaks, Southern Copper becomes a cyclical price taker with less reason to deserve a premium.
Watch: A sustained China construction or industrial demand contraction reduces refined copper demand before reported revenue rolls over.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased from $9.896 billion in FY2023 to $11.433 billion in FY2024 and $13.420 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗Southern Copper’s integrated mining and processing model and asset quality allow it to keep a structurally advantaged cost position, so copper-price upside falls through to operating profit rather than being consumed by energy, labor, royalties, or maintenance costs.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating income rose from $4.192 billion in FY2023 to $5.555 billion in FY2024 and $7.002 billion in FY2025. This is the core quality claim: if margins are cost-advantaged and durable, earnings deserve more than a pure commodity-cycle multiple; if not, normalized profits are much lower.
Watch: Ore grades decline or stripping requirements rise faster than expected, structurally increasing unit mining costs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income rose from $4.192 billion in FY2023 to $5.555 billion in FY2024 and $7.002 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗Southern Copper’s cash-generative operations give it enough internal funding capacity to ride copper cycles and fund sustaining/growth investment without relying on distressed financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $2.803 billion in FY2022 to $3.573 billion in FY2023, $4.422 billion in FY2024, and $4.752 billion in FY2025. If true, downturns are survivable and can be value-creating; if false, shareholders face dividend cuts, project delays, leverage stress, or dilution at the wrong point in the cycle.
Watch: A multi-year copper price downturn cuts cash generation before major capital commitments can be reduced.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $2.803 billion in FY2022 to $3.573 billion in FY2023, $4.422 billion in FY2024.
Open source ↗The investment case requires Southern Copper to preserve its operating license in its mining jurisdictions, because community, labor, permitting, or government disruptions can break the production engine before copper demand weakens.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
The company reported 16,617 employees as of December 31, 2025, indicating a large operating workforce requiring labor stability. Copper scarcity only helps shareholders if the company can actually mine, process, and ship metal; jurisdictional failure would turn a demand bull case into stranded-resource risk.
Watch: A material strike, blockade, or community protest shuts down a major mine or transport route in Peru or Mexico.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The company reported 16,617 employees as of December 31, 2025, indicating a large operating workforce requiring labor stability.
Open source ↗High commodity earnings create shareholder value only if Southern Copper converts operating profit into per-share earnings without offsetting dilution, balance-sheet strain, or value-destructive capital allocation.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $3.05 in FY2023 to $4.21 in FY2024 and $5.24 in FY2025. Owners are paid on per-share outcomes, not mine-level output; if capital allocation absorbs the cycle upside, the business can be strong while the stock underperforms.
Watch: Large equity issuance, minority leakage, or related-party transactions prevent mine-level gains from accruing proportionately to public shareholders.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $3.05 in FY2023 to $4.21 in FY2024 and $5.24 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Global copper scarcity and electrification-linked demand keep buyers competing for Southern Copper’s output, so the company’s integrated copper position continues to convert market tightness into sales rather than losing relevance to substitution or new supply. If this holds, revenue has structural support beyond a one-year commodity price move; if it breaks, Southern Copper becomes a cyclical price taker with less reason to deserve a premium.
Southern Copper’s integrated mining and processing model and asset quality allow it to keep a structurally advantaged cost position, so copper-price upside falls through to operating profit rather than being consumed by energy, labor, royalties, or maintenance costs. This is the core quality claim: if margins are cost-advantaged and durable, earnings deserve more than a pure commodity-cycle multiple; if not, normalized profits are much lower.
Southern Copper’s cash-generative operations give it enough internal funding capacity to ride copper cycles and fund sustaining/growth investment without relying on distressed financing. If true, downturns are survivable and can be value-creating; if false, shareholders face dividend cuts, project delays, leverage stress, or dilution at the wrong point in the cycle.
The investment case requires Southern Copper to preserve its operating license in its mining jurisdictions, because community, labor, permitting, or government disruptions can break the production engine before copper demand weakens. Copper scarcity only helps shareholders if the company can actually mine, process, and ship metal; jurisdictional failure would turn a demand bull case into stranded-resource risk.
High commodity earnings create shareholder value only if Southern Copper converts operating profit into per-share earnings without offsetting dilution, balance-sheet strain, or value-destructive capital allocation. Owners are paid on per-share outcomes, not mine-level output; if capital allocation absorbs the cycle upside, the business can be strong while the stock underperforms.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
copper demand and operating continuity in Peru/Mexico justify paying for peak-cycle economics rather than normalized mining profits.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Southern Copper
Where the evidence on Southern Copper stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Global copper scarcity and electrification-linked demand keep buyers competing for Southern Copper’s output, so the company’s integrated copper position continues to convert market tightness into sales rather than losing relevance to substitution or new supply.
Southern Copper’s integrated mining and processing model and asset quality allow it to keep a structurally advantaged cost position, so copper-price upside falls through to operating profit rather than being consumed by energy, labor, royalties, or maintenance costs.
Southern Copper’s cash-generative operations give it enough internal funding capacity to ride copper cycles and fund sustaining/growth investment without relying on distressed financing.
The investment case requires Southern Copper to preserve its operating license in its mining jurisdictions, because community, labor, permitting, or government disruptions can break the production engine before copper demand weakens.
High commodity earnings create shareholder value only if Southern Copper converts operating profit into per-share earnings without offsetting dilution, balance-sheet strain, or value-destructive capital allocation.
Bear case: what would count against it
A sustained China construction or industrial demand contraction reduces refined copper demand before reported revenue rolls over.
Ore grades decline or stripping requirements rise faster than expected, structurally increasing unit mining costs.
A multi-year copper price downturn cuts cash generation before major capital commitments can be reduced.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Southern Copper’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Southern Copper, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Southern Copper.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Southern Copper at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Southern Copper filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Southern Copper filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-26: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Southern Copper filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-25: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A sustained China construction or industrial demand contraction reduces refined copper demand before reported revenue rolls over.
- Ore grades decline or stripping requirements rise faster than expected, structurally increasing unit mining costs.
- A multi-year copper price downturn cuts cash generation before major capital commitments can be reduced.
- A material strike, blockade, or community protest shuts down a major mine or transport route in Peru or Mexico.
- Large equity issuance, minority leakage, or related-party transactions prevent mine-level gains from accruing proportionately to public shareholders.
SCCO news
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Financial statements
SCCO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
SCCO: quick answers
- What is SCCO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 10.5M SCCO shares were sold short, 1.24% of its shares outstanding, down 0.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 7.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SCCO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded SCCO?
- 19 trades in SCCO have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed SCCO trade
- Which well-known investors own SCCO?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported SCCO shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller), 0.4%. Fund portfolios
SCCO in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported SCCO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office | 0.41% | $21.4M | +1.0% | Q2 2026 |