Saia

SAIANASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$339.57
+$0.09 (+0.03%)Today 1M +0.81%
After hours$339.570.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$339.48
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$333.17–$341.37
Regular-session low and high so far today.
182.7K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 9 projected
Projected for 2027-02-09 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$249.32–$494.71
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own SAIA if its less-than-truckload network expansion turns into dense, profitable freight rather than low-margin volume bought with price.

SAIA price history

Latest price$339.57Today+$0.09 (+0.03%)
SAIA +0.70%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Saia’s broader LTL coverage can attract shippers only if it creates enough lane density and service reliability to price as a quality carrier rather than buy freight with discounts.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue was $3.234 billion in FY2025 versus $3.209 billion in FY2024 and $2.881 billion in FY2023, showing the top line has remained above the pre-expansion base despite a difficult freight backdrop. If density and service hold, revenue growth can be profitable; if not, volume growth becomes low-return freight.

    Watch: Old Dominion, XPO, FedEx Freight, or regional LTL carriers win back Saia-targeted lanes by matching service quality while underpricing Saia.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue was $3.234 billion in FY2025 versus $3.209 billion in FY2024 and $2.881 billion in FY2023, showing the.

    Open source ↗
  • Terminal and fleet growth create value only if freight density catches up with fixed labor, linehaul, dock, and facility costs; otherwise Saia loses the operating leverage that makes LTL attractive.WeakeningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual operating income remained positive at $352.2 million in FY2025. This determines whether network expansion lifts owner earnings or merely adds cost and complexity.

    Watch: New or expanded terminals remain underutilized because shipment density does not build fast enough in new lanes.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income remained positive at $352.2 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • The asset-heavy LTL build is investable only while internal cash generation funds terminals, tractors, trailers, and technology without forcing balance-sheet risk or dilution.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was $595.0 million in FY2025, up from $583.7 million in FY2024 and $577.9 million in FY2023. Self-funding lets Saia compound through cycles; external funding pressure would make expansion much riskier for shareholders.

    Watch: Terminal real estate, equipment, or technology spending consistently outruns operating cash flow and forces materially higher debt.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was $595.0 million in FY2025, up from $583.7 million in FY2024 and $577.9 million in.

    Open source ↗
  • Management’s network expansion must earn back toward prior-cycle per-share returns; simply adding assets is not enough if shippers do not reward the broader footprint with profitable freight.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual diluted EPS remained positive at $9.52 in FY2025. Owners need profitable compounding per share, not just a larger trucking network.

    Watch: New terminals and lanes add depreciation, labor, and operating complexity without enough high-yield freight to rebuild returns.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual diluted EPS remained positive at $9.52 in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Saia’s broader LTL coverage can attract shippers only if it creates enough lane density and service reliability to price as a quality carrier rather than buy freight with discounts. If density and service hold, revenue growth can be profitable; if not, volume growth becomes low-return freight.

Terminal and fleet growth create value only if freight density catches up with fixed labor, linehaul, dock, and facility costs; otherwise Saia loses the operating leverage that makes LTL attractive. This determines whether network expansion lifts owner earnings or merely adds cost and complexity.

The asset-heavy LTL build is investable only while internal cash generation funds terminals, tractors, trailers, and technology without forcing balance-sheet risk or dilution. Self-funding lets Saia compound through cycles; external funding pressure would make expansion much riskier for shareholders.

Management’s network expansion must earn back toward prior-cycle per-share returns; simply adding assets is not enough if shippers do not reward the broader footprint with profitable freight. Owners need profitable compounding per share, not just a larger trucking network.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its less-than-truckload network expansion turns into dense, profitable freight rather than low-margin volume bought with price.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for SAIA

Where the evidence on SAIA disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 1 holding and 2 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Saia’s broader LTL coverage can attract shippers only if it creates enough lane density and service reliability to price as a quality carrier rather than buy freight with discounts.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The asset-heavy LTL build is investable only while internal cash generation funds terminals, tractors, trailers, and technology without forcing balance-sheet risk or dilution.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Terminal and fleet growth create value only if freight density catches up with fixed labor, linehaul, dock, and facility costs; otherwise Saia loses the operating leverage that makes LTL attractive.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management’s network expansion must earn back toward prior-cycle per-share returns; simply adding assets is not enough if shippers do not reward the broader footprint with profitable freight.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · SAIA

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed SAIA’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    SAIA filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-03: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    SAIA filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    SAIA filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Old Dominion, XPO, FedEx Freight, or regional LTL carriers win back Saia-targeted lanes by matching service quality while underpricing Saia.
  • New or expanded terminals remain underutilized because shipment density does not build fast enough in new lanes.
  • Terminal real estate, equipment, or technology spending consistently outruns operating cash flow and forces materially higher debt.
  • New terminals and lanes add depreciation, labor, and operating complexity without enough high-yield freight to rebuild returns.

SAIA news

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Financial statements

SAIA income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

SAIA: quick answers

When does SAIA (SAIA) report earnings next?
SAIA's next results are projected for February 9, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is SAIA's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 1.0M SAIA shares were sold short, 3.87% of its shares outstanding, down 9.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SAIA short interest history
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