Saia
SAIANASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $339.48 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $333.17–$341.37 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 182.7K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 9 projected Projected for 2027-02-09 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $249.32–$494.71 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own SAIA if its less-than-truckload network expansion turns into dense, profitable freight rather than low-margin volume bought with price.
SAIA price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Saia’s broader LTL coverage can attract shippers only if it creates enough lane density and service reliability to price as a quality carrier rather than buy freight with discounts.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue was $3.234 billion in FY2025 versus $3.209 billion in FY2024 and $2.881 billion in FY2023, showing the top line has remained above the pre-expansion base despite a difficult freight backdrop. If density and service hold, revenue growth can be profitable; if not, volume growth becomes low-return freight.
Watch: Old Dominion, XPO, FedEx Freight, or regional LTL carriers win back Saia-targeted lanes by matching service quality while underpricing Saia.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue was $3.234 billion in FY2025 versus $3.209 billion in FY2024 and $2.881 billion in FY2023, showing the.
Open source ↗Terminal and fleet growth create value only if freight density catches up with fixed labor, linehaul, dock, and facility costs; otherwise Saia loses the operating leverage that makes LTL attractive.WeakeningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating income remained positive at $352.2 million in FY2025. This determines whether network expansion lifts owner earnings or merely adds cost and complexity.
Watch: New or expanded terminals remain underutilized because shipment density does not build fast enough in new lanes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income remained positive at $352.2 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗The asset-heavy LTL build is investable only while internal cash generation funds terminals, tractors, trailers, and technology without forcing balance-sheet risk or dilution.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was $595.0 million in FY2025, up from $583.7 million in FY2024 and $577.9 million in FY2023. Self-funding lets Saia compound through cycles; external funding pressure would make expansion much riskier for shareholders.
Watch: Terminal real estate, equipment, or technology spending consistently outruns operating cash flow and forces materially higher debt.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was $595.0 million in FY2025, up from $583.7 million in FY2024 and $577.9 million in.
Open source ↗Management’s network expansion must earn back toward prior-cycle per-share returns; simply adding assets is not enough if shippers do not reward the broader footprint with profitable freight.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual diluted EPS remained positive at $9.52 in FY2025. Owners need profitable compounding per share, not just a larger trucking network.
Watch: New terminals and lanes add depreciation, labor, and operating complexity without enough high-yield freight to rebuild returns.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual diluted EPS remained positive at $9.52 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Saia’s broader LTL coverage can attract shippers only if it creates enough lane density and service reliability to price as a quality carrier rather than buy freight with discounts. If density and service hold, revenue growth can be profitable; if not, volume growth becomes low-return freight.
Terminal and fleet growth create value only if freight density catches up with fixed labor, linehaul, dock, and facility costs; otherwise Saia loses the operating leverage that makes LTL attractive. This determines whether network expansion lifts owner earnings or merely adds cost and complexity.
The asset-heavy LTL build is investable only while internal cash generation funds terminals, tractors, trailers, and technology without forcing balance-sheet risk or dilution. Self-funding lets Saia compound through cycles; external funding pressure would make expansion much riskier for shareholders.
Management’s network expansion must earn back toward prior-cycle per-share returns; simply adding assets is not enough if shippers do not reward the broader footprint with profitable freight. Owners need profitable compounding per share, not just a larger trucking network.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its less-than-truckload network expansion turns into dense, profitable freight rather than low-margin volume bought with price.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for SAIA
Where the evidence on SAIA disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 1 holding and 2 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Saia’s broader LTL coverage can attract shippers only if it creates enough lane density and service reliability to price as a quality carrier rather than buy freight with discounts.
The asset-heavy LTL build is investable only while internal cash generation funds terminals, tractors, trailers, and technology without forcing balance-sheet risk or dilution.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Terminal and fleet growth create value only if freight density catches up with fixed labor, linehaul, dock, and facility costs; otherwise Saia loses the operating leverage that makes LTL attractive.
Management’s network expansion must earn back toward prior-cycle per-share returns; simply adding assets is not enough if shippers do not reward the broader footprint with profitable freight.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · SAIA
No break has crossed SAIA’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedOther material event.
SAIA filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-03: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
SAIA filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
SAIA filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Old Dominion, XPO, FedEx Freight, or regional LTL carriers win back Saia-targeted lanes by matching service quality while underpricing Saia.
- New or expanded terminals remain underutilized because shipment density does not build fast enough in new lanes.
- Terminal real estate, equipment, or technology spending consistently outruns operating cash flow and forces materially higher debt.
- New terminals and lanes add depreciation, labor, and operating complexity without enough high-yield freight to rebuild returns.
SAIA news
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Financial statements
SAIA income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
SAIA: quick answers
- When does SAIA (SAIA) report earnings next?
- SAIA's next results are projected for February 9, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is SAIA's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 1.0M SAIA shares were sold short, 3.87% of its shares outstanding, down 9.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SAIA short interest history
