Safety Insurance Group
SAFTNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $104.49 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $104.41–$104.46 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 91.7K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 24 projected Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $67.93–$104.54 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own SAFT if Safety earns a durable regional-insurer return by leveraging deep independent-agent distribution and local underwriting expertise to raise rates, control claims, and convert premiums into predictable cash and capital.
SAFT price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Regulator-approved rate increases plus strong agent relationships will keep direct written premium and earned premium growing in Safety’s New England footprint, so underwriting scale and average premium per policy rise without needing national distribution.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue rose from 930,956,000 (2023) to 1,120,017,000 (2024) to 1,263,732,000 (2025), showing sustained premium growth. If true, premium growth funds higher earnings and operating cash flow without diluting unit economics; if false, growth stalls and margin leverage evaporates.
Watch: State regulators refuse to approve material rate requests in key lines (e.g., Massachusetts private-passenger auto), blocking price realization.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue rose from 930,956,000 (2023) to 1,120,017,000 (2024) to 1,263,732,000 (2025), showing sustained premium growth.
Open source ↗Safety’s underwriting discipline and local claims management will keep combined ratios near historical levels, preventing underwriting losses and allowing net income to trend upward as premiums grow.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Net income increased materially: 18,875,000 (2023) → 70,734,000 (2024) → 99,255,000 (2025), consistent with improved combined results noted in MD&A. Sustained underwriting profitability preserves capital, supports ratings and enables cash returns; a structural rise in loss ratios would destroy earnings and equity.
Watch: Persistently higher auto severity (inflation, repair costs) or a cluster of Northeast catastrophes increases incurred losses and pulls combined ratios above 100% for multiple quarters.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Net income increased materially: 18,875,000 (2023) → 70,734,000 (2024) → 99,255,000 (2025), consistent with improved combined results noted in MD&A.
Open source ↗A solid statutory/economic capital position (reflected in rising shareholders' equity) and an investment posture that management describes as high-quality will sustain Safety’s A (Excellent) A.M. Best rating, preserving capacity to write new business and return capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Reported stockholders' equity increased from 804,267,000 (2023) → 828,464,000 (2024) → 892,311,000 (2025). Maintained rating preserves distribution relationships, lowers reinsurance/pricing pressure and allows continued share growth and capital returns; a downgrade would raise costs and constrain growth.
Watch: A large catastrophe or adverse reserve development materially draws capital, triggering an A.M. Best downgrade.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Reported stockholders' equity increased from 804,267,000 (2023) → 828,464,000 (2024) → 892,311,000 (2025).
Open source ↗Strong, growing operating cash flow will continue to fund dividends, opportunistic share repurchases and working capital without pressuring underwriting or requiring external capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow rose materially year-over-year: 52,114,000 (2023) → 128,688,000 (2024) → 194,498,000 (2025). Predictable cash conversion limits dilution and supports shareholder returns; if cash flow weakens, capital returns must be cut or leverage increased.
Watch: Large reserve builds, claims spikes or investment impairments materially reduce operating cash flow.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow rose materially year-over-year: 52,114,000 (2023) → 128,688,000 (2024) → 194,498,000 (2025).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Regulator-approved rate increases plus strong agent relationships will keep direct written premium and earned premium growing in Safety’s New England footprint, so underwriting scale and average premium per policy rise without needing national distribution. If true, premium growth funds higher earnings and operating cash flow without diluting unit economics; if false, growth stalls and margin leverage evaporates.
Safety’s underwriting discipline and local claims management will keep combined ratios near historical levels, preventing underwriting losses and allowing net income to trend upward as premiums grow. Sustained underwriting profitability preserves capital, supports ratings and enables cash returns; a structural rise in loss ratios would destroy earnings and equity.
A solid statutory/economic capital position (reflected in rising shareholders' equity) and an investment posture that management describes as high-quality will sustain Safety’s A (Excellent) A.M. Best rating, preserving capacity to write new business and return capital. Maintained rating preserves distribution relationships, lowers reinsurance/pricing pressure and allows continued share growth and capital returns; a downgrade would raise costs and constrain growth.
Strong, growing operating cash flow will continue to fund dividends, opportunistic share repurchases and working capital without pressuring underwriting or requiring external capital. Predictable cash conversion limits dilution and supports shareholder returns; if cash flow weakens, capital returns must be cut or leverage increased.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Safety earns a durable regional-insurer return by leveraging deep independent-agent distribution and local underwriting expertise to raise rates, control claims, and convert premiums into predictable cash and capital.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Safety Insurance Group
Where the evidence on Safety Insurance Group stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Regulator-approved rate increases plus strong agent relationships will keep direct written premium and earned premium growing in Safety’s New England footprint, so underwriting scale and average premium per policy rise without needing national distribution.
Safety’s underwriting discipline and local claims management will keep combined ratios near historical levels, preventing underwriting losses and allowing net income to trend upward as premiums grow.
A solid statutory/economic capital position (reflected in rising shareholders' equity) and an investment posture that management describes as high-quality will sustain Safety’s A (Excellent) A.M. Best rating, preserving capacity to write new business and return capital.
Strong, growing operating cash flow will continue to fund dividends, opportunistic share repurchases and working capital without pressuring underwriting or requiring external capital.
Bear case: what would count against it
State regulators refuse to approve material rate requests in key lines (e.g., Massachusetts private-passenger auto), blocking price realization.
Persistently higher auto severity (inflation, repair costs) or a cluster of Northeast catastrophes increases incurred losses and pulls combined ratios above 100% for multiple quarters.
A large catastrophe or adverse reserve development materially draws capital, triggering an A.M. Best downgrade.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Safety Insurance Group
No break has crossed Safety Insurance Group’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Safety Insurance Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Safety Insurance Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-15: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Safety Insurance Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- State regulators refuse to approve material rate requests in key lines (e.g., Massachusetts private-passenger auto), blocking price realization.
- Persistently higher auto severity (inflation, repair costs) or a cluster of Northeast catastrophes increases incurred losses and pulls combined ratios above 100% for multiple quarters.
- A large catastrophe or adverse reserve development materially draws capital, triggering an A.M. Best downgrade.
- Large reserve builds, claims spikes or investment impairments materially reduce operating cash flow.
SAFT news
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Financial statements
SAFT income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
SAFT: quick answers
- When does Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) report earnings next?
- Safety Insurance Group's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is SAFT's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 388,356 SAFT shares were sold short, 2.65% of its shares outstanding, up 7.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SAFT short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded SAFT?
- 1 trade in SAFT has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed SAFT trade