RXO
RXONYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $27.93 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $27.89–$28.41 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 4.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 5 projected Projected for 2027-02-05 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $10.43–$29.90 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own RXO if RXO is a cyclical recovery-and-execution bet: its technology-enabled, asset-light brokerage platform must turn larger freight volumes into real operating profit, not merely bigger low-margin revenue.
RXO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
RXO’s technology-enabled, asset-light brokerage remains a preferred way for shippers to buy flexible transportation capacity, so it can keep converting freight demand into load volume without adding owned assets.StrengtheningMateriality: High
The SEC profile describes RXO as a brokered transportation platform defined by cutting-edge technology and an asset-light business model. If this holds, RXO can gain share with limited capital intensity; if it breaks, revenue scale loses strategic value.
Watch: Large freight brokers such as C.H. Robinson, Echo Global Logistics, or Uber Freight win shipper RFPs by offering better pricing, automation, or routing visibility.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The SEC profile describes RXO as a brokered transportation platform defined by cutting-edge technology and an asset-light business model.
Open source ↗RXO’s added brokerage scale must improve load density, automation, and pricing discipline enough to restore positive GAAP operating profit; if price competition captures the benefit, scale is not a moat.WeakeningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating income was positive in FY2021, FY2022, and FY2023, showing the model has earned profits in prior conditions. This is the difference between a scalable platform and a low-margin volume aggregator.
Watch: Carrier capacity tightens faster than RXO can reprice shipper contracts, compressing brokerage spreads.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income was positive in FY2021, FY2022, and FY2023, showing the model has earned profits in prior conditions.
Open source ↗Because RXO brokers transportation rather than owning a large fleet, the model should fund itself through working-capital discipline even when GAAP earnings are weak; persistent cash absorption would show the asset-light economics are not carrying through.HoldingMateriality: Medium
The SEC profile identifies RXO’s business model as asset-light. Cash conversion lets shareholders wait for a freight recovery; cash burn would force financing risk or strategic retrenchment.
Watch: Shipper receivable collections slow while RXO must keep paying carriers on time.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The SEC profile identifies RXO’s business model as asset-light.
Open source ↗RXO must avoid a liquidity squeeze before brokerage margins recover, because an asset-light broker with very little cash loses strategic flexibility if working capital, integration costs, or freight weakness require expensive financing.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
Cash was $17 million at FY2025, down from $35 million at FY2024 and $98 million at FY2022. If liquidity remains adequate, the company can bridge the cycle; if not, equity owners risk dilution or balance-sheet-driven decisions.
Watch: A prolonged freight downturn drives working-capital needs higher before margins recover.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash was $17 million at FY2025, down from $35 million at FY2024 and $98 million at FY2022.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
RXO’s technology-enabled, asset-light brokerage remains a preferred way for shippers to buy flexible transportation capacity, so it can keep converting freight demand into load volume without adding owned assets. If this holds, RXO can gain share with limited capital intensity; if it breaks, revenue scale loses strategic value.
RXO’s added brokerage scale must improve load density, automation, and pricing discipline enough to restore positive GAAP operating profit; if price competition captures the benefit, scale is not a moat. This is the difference between a scalable platform and a low-margin volume aggregator.
Because RXO brokers transportation rather than owning a large fleet, the model should fund itself through working-capital discipline even when GAAP earnings are weak; persistent cash absorption would show the asset-light economics are not carrying through. Cash conversion lets shareholders wait for a freight recovery; cash burn would force financing risk or strategic retrenchment.
RXO must avoid a liquidity squeeze before brokerage margins recover, because an asset-light broker with very little cash loses strategic flexibility if working capital, integration costs, or freight weakness require expensive financing. If liquidity remains adequate, the company can bridge the cycle; if not, equity owners risk dilution or balance-sheet-driven decisions.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
RXO is a cyclical recovery-and-execution bet: its technology-enabled, asset-light brokerage platform must turn larger freight volumes into real operating profit, not merely bigger low-margin revenue.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for RXO
Where the evidence on RXO disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 23, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 1 holding and 2 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
RXO’s technology-enabled, asset-light brokerage remains a preferred way for shippers to buy flexible transportation capacity, so it can keep converting freight demand into load volume without adding owned assets.
Because RXO brokers transportation rather than owning a large fleet, the model should fund itself through working-capital discipline even when GAAP earnings are weak; persistent cash absorption would show the asset-light economics are not carrying through.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
RXO’s added brokerage scale must improve load density, automation, and pricing discipline enough to restore positive GAAP operating profit; if price competition captures the benefit, scale is not a moat.
RXO must avoid a liquidity squeeze before brokerage margins recover, because an asset-light broker with very little cash loses strategic flexibility if working capital, integration costs, or freight weakness require expensive financing.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in RXO’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on RXO, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for RXO.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through RXO’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Revenue decline, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 3,039 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 32% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on RXO at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
RXO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-05: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
RXO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-09: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
RXO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large freight brokers such as C.H. Robinson, Echo Global Logistics, or Uber Freight win shipper RFPs by offering better pricing, automation, or routing visibility.
- Carrier capacity tightens faster than RXO can reprice shipper contracts, compressing brokerage spreads.
- Shipper receivable collections slow while RXO must keep paying carriers on time.
- A prolonged freight downturn drives working-capital needs higher before margins recover.
RXO news
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Financial statements
RXO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
RXO: quick answers
- When does RXO (RXO) report earnings next?
- RXO's next results are projected for February 5, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is RXO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 7.8M RXO shares were sold short, 4.72% of its shares outstanding, down 28.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. RXO short interest history