Ross Stores

ROSTNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$238.22
−$0.73 (−0.31%)Today 1M +7.11%

Updated Nov 11, 10:49 AM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

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Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
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Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
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Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$238.95
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$237.34–$239.91
Regular-session low and high so far today.
249.4K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 10:49 AM ET.
Nov 19 projected
Projected for 2026-11-19 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$157.73–$257.00
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own ROST if Ross Stores' off-price, treasure-hunt retail model converts disciplined, opportunistic buying and a low-cost store network into recurring cash flow and steady EPS growth.

ROST price history

LATEST PRICE$238.22TODAY−$0.73 (-0.31%)
ROST +5.30%S&P 500 -2.68%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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INVESTMENT THESIS

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Ross's ability to buy branded excess and opportunistic inventory at scale is the primary driver of sustained gross-margin resilience and pricing advantage versus full-price competitors.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    gross_profit increased from 5,868,713,000 (FY2025) to 6,303,303,000 (FY2026). If procurement discipline holds, Ross keeps a margin and value gap that drives repeat traffic and protects pricing power; if suppliers cut off or reduce closeout flows the margin cushion evaporates.

    Watch: major brands restrict selling of overstock/closeouts to off-price channels, reducing Ross's access to low-cost inventory.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    gross_profit increased from 5,868,713,000 (FY2025) to 6,303,303,000 (FY2026).

    Open source ↗
  • Ross's low-capex footprint and high inventory turnover translate revenue into strong operating cash flow that can fund buybacks and support EPS per share growth without heavy debt.HoldingMateriality: High

    operating_cash_flow rose from 2,356,988,000 (FY2025) to 3,026,883,000 (FY2026). Sustained high cash conversion funds shareholder returns and makes EPS growth less reliant on risky margin expansion or aggressive M&A.

    Watch: management redirects cash to heavy store capex or acquisitions, reducing buybacks.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow rose from 2,356,988,000 (FY2025) to 3,026,883,000 (FY2026).

    Open source ↗
  • Revenue growth over time will be driven primarily by incremental store openings and productivity of the existing store base rather than meaningful e-commerce expansion.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    revenue increased year-over-year from 21,129,219,000 (FY2025) to 22,750,559,000 (FY2026). If new stores and SSS gains continue, unit economics and cash flow compound; if store expansion stalls or cannibalization/traffic decline occurs, top-line leverage and cash generation fade.

    Watch: inability to secure attractive retail real estate or increased competition for off-price sites.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    revenue increased year-over-year from 21,129,219,000 (FY2025) to 22,750,559,000 (FY2026).

    Open source ↗
  • Ross's limited e-commerce exposure and no-frills cost structure make its operating margin less vulnerable to online competition and promotions than full-price retailers.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    operating_income rose from 2,585,586,000 (FY2025) to 2,707,357,000 (FY2026), showing continuing operating-profitability in aggregate. If true, Ross can retain higher operating margins through cycles and sustain returns; if e-commerce meaningfully displaces in-store treasure-hunt behavior, margins compress and cash conversion falls.

    Watch: large omnichannel competitors (or entrenched e-commerce leaders) replicate off-price assortment and convenience, pulling traffic away.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_income rose from 2,585,586,000 (FY2025) to 2,707,357,000 (FY2026), showing continuing operating-profitability in aggregate.

    Open source ↗
  • EPS per share growth will be sustained by combined revenue expansion, margin maintenance and continued use of cash for share repurchases.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    eps_diluted rose from 6.32 (FY2025) to 6.61 (FY2026). If buybacks continue and margins hold, EPS can grow faster than revenue; if buybacks stop or margins decline, EPS growth will slow even with revenue gains.

    Watch: management suspends or materially reduces share repurchases.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    eps_diluted rose from 6.32 (FY2025) to 6.61 (FY2026).

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Ross's ability to buy branded excess and opportunistic inventory at scale is the primary driver of sustained gross-margin resilience and pricing advantage versus full-price competitors. If procurement discipline holds, Ross keeps a margin and value gap that drives repeat traffic and protects pricing power; if suppliers cut off or reduce closeout flows the margin cushion evaporates.

Ross's low-capex footprint and high inventory turnover translate revenue into strong operating cash flow that can fund buybacks and support EPS per share growth without heavy debt. Sustained high cash conversion funds shareholder returns and makes EPS growth less reliant on risky margin expansion or aggressive M&A.

Revenue growth over time will be driven primarily by incremental store openings and productivity of the existing store base rather than meaningful e-commerce expansion. If new stores and SSS gains continue, unit economics and cash flow compound; if store expansion stalls or cannibalization/traffic decline occurs, top-line leverage and cash generation fade.

Ross's limited e-commerce exposure and no-frills cost structure make its operating margin less vulnerable to online competition and promotions than full-price retailers. If true, Ross can retain higher operating margins through cycles and sustain returns; if e-commerce meaningfully displaces in-store treasure-hunt behavior, margins compress and cash conversion falls.

EPS per share growth will be sustained by combined revenue expansion, margin maintenance and continued use of cash for share repurchases. If buybacks continue and margins hold, EPS can grow faster than revenue; if buybacks stop or margins decline, EPS growth will slow even with revenue gains.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Ross Stores' off-price, treasure-hunt retail model converts disciplined, opportunistic buying and a low-cost store network into recurring cash flow and steady EPS growth.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

BULL CASE / BEAR CASE

Bull case and bear case for Ross Stores

Where the evidence on Ross Stores stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Ross's ability to buy branded excess and opportunistic inventory at scale is the primary driver of sustained gross-margin resilience and pricing advantage versus full-price competitors.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Ross's low-capex footprint and high inventory turnover translate revenue into strong operating cash flow that can fund buybacks and support EPS per share growth without heavy debt.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Revenue growth over time will be driven primarily by incremental store openings and productivity of the existing store base rather than meaningful e-commerce expansion.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Ross's limited e-commerce exposure and no-frills cost structure make its operating margin less vulnerable to online competition and promotions than full-price retailers.

    sec.gov ↗

  • EPS per share growth will be sustained by combined revenue expansion, margin maintenance and continued use of cash for share repurchases.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • major brands restrict selling of overstock/closeouts to off-price channels, reducing Ross's access to low-cost inventory.

    sec.gov ↗

  • management redirects cash to heavy store capex or acquisitions, reducing buybacks.

    sec.gov ↗

  • inability to secure attractive retail real estate or increased competition for off-price sites.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Ross Stores

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Ross Stores’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. MIXED
    Director or principal officer change.

    Ross Stores filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-17: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. MIXED
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Ross Stores filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-20: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. MIXED
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Ross Stores filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-21: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

RISKS / FALSIFIERS

What could break the thesis

  • major brands restrict selling of overstock/closeouts to off-price channels, reducing Ross's access to low-cost inventory.
  • management redirects cash to heavy store capex or acquisitions, reducing buybacks.
  • inability to secure attractive retail real estate or increased competition for off-price sites.
  • large omnichannel competitors (or entrenched e-commerce leaders) replicate off-price assortment and convenience, pulling traffic away.
  • management suspends or materially reduces share repurchases.

ROST news

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

ROST income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

ROST: quick answers

When does Ross Stores (ROST) report earnings next?
Ross Stores's next results are projected for November 19, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 20, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is ROST's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 9.0M ROST shares were sold short, 2.80% of its shares outstanding, down 8.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ROST short interest history
Have members of Congress traded ROST?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in ROST by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed ROST trade
Which well-known investors own ROST?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ROST shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios

ROST in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported ROST shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.08%$20.6M+55.1%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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