RenaissanceRe Holdings

RNRNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$353.89
−$1.96 (−0.55%)Today 1M +7.38%
After hours$355.10+0.34%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$355.85
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$349.63–$355.03
Regular-session low and high so far today.
343.8K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 2 projected
Projected for 2027-02-02 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$251.60–$363.84
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own RNR if RenaissanceRe (RNR) earns above-market returns by underwriting large, hard-to-transfer catastrophe and specialty P&C risks, using actuarial modeling and a deep capital base to price selectively through reinsurance cycles while converting underwriting and investment income.

RNR price history

Latest price$353.89Today−$1.96 (-0.55%)
RNR +4.17%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • RenaissanceRe’s top-line growth is driven by reinsurance market cycles and its ability to selectively deploy capacity when pricing is favorable; sustained revenue growth will continue only if the firm maintains pricing discipline through renewals and avoids market share chasing in.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Revenue rose from $5,060,412,000 (FY 2022) to $9,134,608,000 (FY 2023) and then to $11,695,148,000 (FY 2024) and $12,848,074,000 (FY 2025), showing strong top-line expansion through recent cycles. If underwriting discipline holds, revenue growth reflects profitable deployment of capital and supports margins and cash returns; if the company chases share in a soft market, top-line growth will precede margin compression and capital losses.

    Watch: Large capital inflows into reinsurance/ILS or a prolonged period of benign catastrophe losses that drive broad market rate declines and force price concessions.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue rose from $5,060,412,000 (FY 2022) to $9,134,608,000 (FY 2023) and then to $11,695,148,000 (FY 2024) and $12,848,074,000 (FY 2025).

    Open source ↗
  • RenaissanceRe’s growing shareholders’ equity and balance sheet capacity give it optionality to refuse poor-priced risks and to write larger, higher-margin business when markets harden, protecting long-run returns and pricing power.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Stockholders' equity increased from $5,325,274,000 (FY 2022) to $9,454,958,000 (FY 2023), $10,574,012,000 (FY 2024) and $11,608,657,000 (FY 2025), indicating rising capital available to underwrite risk. A durable capital base allows selective underwriting and limits forced underwriting at low rates; if equity erodes, the firm loses both capacity and negotiating leverage, compressing future returns.

    Watch: Large reserve development or a major CAT event that materially reduces equity or triggers rating agency capital actions.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Stockholders' equity increased from $5,325,274,000 (FY 2022) to $9,454,958,000 (FY 2023), $10,574,012,000 (FY 2024) and $11,608,657,000 (FY 2025), indicating rising.

    Open source ↗
  • Reliable operating cash flow generation from underwriting and investments gives RenaissanceRe flexibility to return capital and withstand loss years without forced capital raises, so sustained positive OCF preserves the thesis.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Operating cash flow expanded from $1,603,683,000 (FY 2022) to $1,911,634,000 (FY 2023), $4,164,822,000 (FY 2024) and $3,693,107,000 (FY 2025), showing strong cash generation. If operating cash flow remains robust, management can fund buybacks/dividends and maintain underwriting capacity; if cash flow collapses, the company must conserve capital, reducing shareholder returns and competitive positioning.

    Watch: A spike in claim payments from a major catastrophe season or sustained underwriting losses that drive operating cash flow materially lower.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow expanded from $1,603,683,000 (FY 2022) to $1,911,634,000 (FY 2023), $4,164,822,000 (FY 2024) and $3,693,107,000 (FY 2025), showing.

    Open source ↗
  • RenaissanceRe’s per-share earnings depend on stable underwriting margins and investment income; sustaining EPS requires disciplined underwriting and controlled reserve volatility rather than relying on transient investment gains.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Diluted EPS moved from -$25.50 (FY 2022) to $52.27 (FY 2023), $35.21 (FY 2024) and $56.03 (FY 2025), indicating large variation but strong recent per-share profitability. If EPS growth is durable and comes from underwriting profits and recurring investment returns, shareholder value compounds; if EPS is volatile due to reserve releases or episodic gains, the stock’s premium will not be justified.

    Watch: Large one-time reserve reversals or realized investment gains driving EPS spikes (i.e., earnings driven by non-repeatable items), or alternatively, sizeable realized losses that depress EPS.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Diluted EPS moved from -$25.50 (FY 2022) to $52.27 (FY 2023), $35.21 (FY 2024) and $56.03 (FY 2025), indicating large.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

RenaissanceRe’s top-line growth is driven by reinsurance market cycles and its ability to selectively deploy capacity when pricing is favorable; sustained revenue growth will continue only if the firm maintains pricing discipline through renewals and avoids market share chasing in. If underwriting discipline holds, revenue growth reflects profitable deployment of capital and supports margins and cash returns; if the company chases share in a soft market, top-line growth will precede margin compression and capital losses.

RenaissanceRe’s growing shareholders’ equity and balance sheet capacity give it optionality to refuse poor-priced risks and to write larger, higher-margin business when markets harden, protecting long-run returns and pricing power. A durable capital base allows selective underwriting and limits forced underwriting at low rates; if equity erodes, the firm loses both capacity and negotiating leverage, compressing future returns.

Reliable operating cash flow generation from underwriting and investments gives RenaissanceRe flexibility to return capital and withstand loss years without forced capital raises, so sustained positive OCF preserves the thesis. If operating cash flow remains robust, management can fund buybacks/dividends and maintain underwriting capacity; if cash flow collapses, the company must conserve capital, reducing shareholder returns and competitive positioning.

RenaissanceRe’s per-share earnings depend on stable underwriting margins and investment income; sustaining EPS requires disciplined underwriting and controlled reserve volatility rather than relying on transient investment gains. If EPS growth is durable and comes from underwriting profits and recurring investment returns, shareholder value compounds; if EPS is volatile due to reserve releases or episodic gains, the stock’s premium will not be justified.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

RenaissanceRe (RNR) earns above-market returns by underwriting large, hard-to-transfer catastrophe and specialty P&C risks, using actuarial modeling and a deep capital base to price selectively through reinsurance cycles while converting underwriting and investment income.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Renaissancere Holdings

Where the evidence on Renaissancere Holdings stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • RenaissanceRe’s top-line growth is driven by reinsurance market cycles and its ability to selectively deploy capacity when pricing is favorable; sustained revenue growth will continue only if the firm maintains pricing discipline through renewals and avoids market share chasing in.

    sec.gov ↗

  • RenaissanceRe’s growing shareholders’ equity and balance sheet capacity give it optionality to refuse poor-priced risks and to write larger, higher-margin business when markets harden, protecting long-run returns and pricing power.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Reliable operating cash flow generation from underwriting and investments gives RenaissanceRe flexibility to return capital and withstand loss years without forced capital raises, so sustained positive OCF preserves the thesis.

    sec.gov ↗

  • RenaissanceRe’s per-share earnings depend on stable underwriting margins and investment income; sustaining EPS requires disciplined underwriting and controlled reserve volatility rather than relying on transient investment gains.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Large capital inflows into reinsurance/ILS or a prolonged period of benign catastrophe losses that drive broad market rate declines and force price concessions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Large reserve development or a major CAT event that materially reduces equity or triggers rating agency capital actions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A spike in claim payments from a major catastrophe season or sustained underwriting losses that drive operating cash flow materially lower.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Renaissancere Holdings’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Renaissancere Holdings, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Renaissancere Holdings.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Renaissancere Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Renaissancere Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-14: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Renaissancere Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-06: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large capital inflows into reinsurance/ILS or a prolonged period of benign catastrophe losses that drive broad market rate declines and force price concessions.
  • Large reserve development or a major CAT event that materially reduces equity or triggers rating agency capital actions.
  • A spike in claim payments from a major catastrophe season or sustained underwriting losses that drive operating cash flow materially lower.
  • Large one-time reserve reversals or realized investment gains driving EPS spikes (i.e., earnings driven by non-repeatable items), or alternatively, sizeable realized losses that depress EPS.

RNR news

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Financial statements

RNR income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

RNR: quick answers

When does Renaissancere Holdings (RNR) report earnings next?
Renaissancere Holdings's next results are projected for February 2, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is RNR's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 1.2M RNR shares were sold short, 2.90% of its shares outstanding, down 14.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. RNR short interest history
Have members of Congress traded RNR?
4 trades in RNR have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed RNR trade
Which well-known investors own RNR?
2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported RNR shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.2%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios

RNR in well-known investors’ portfolios

2 of 37 funds reported RNR shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Tom GaynerMarkel Group0.17%$22.3MNo changeQ3 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.10%$24.0M−8.0%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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