RLI

RLINYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

Email me when the RLI thesis changes

Evidence-based analysis, not personalized investment advice. Every alert email carries an unsubscribe link.

Follow on X
$68.70
−$0.17 (−0.25%)Today 1M +23.62%
After hours$69.00+0.44%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$68.87
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$67.58–$69.47
Regular-session low and high so far today.
642.1K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 20 projected
Projected for 2027-01-20 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$47.26–$71.90
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own RLI if disciplined risk selection keeps broker flow, cash generation and book-value growth intact through insurance cycles.

RLI price history

Latest price$68.70Today−$0.17 (-0.25%)
RLI +22.07%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • RLI’s specialty-insurance relationships keep attracting risks that standard carriers avoid, so growth can be selected rather than bought through broad price cuts; needs calibration: segment premium growth and retention thresholds are not provided.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue rose from $1.512 billion in FY2023 to $1.770 billion in FY2024 and $1.882 billion in FY2025. If broker flow remains advantaged, RLI can grow without surrendering underwriting quality; if broker flow is competed away, growth becomes lower-margin and more cyclical.

    Watch: Specialty competitors such as W.R. Berkley, Markel, Kinsale, Arch or Chubb win wholesale broker flow by offering broader appetite, faster quoting or lower pricing.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue rose from $1.512 billion in FY2023 to $1.770 billion in FY2024 and $1.882 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • RLI’s value creation depends on management preserving underwriting discipline when specialty pricing gets competitive, even if that means giving up premium volume; needs calibration: combined ratio and reserve-development history are not provided.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual net income remained positive in each supplied year and increased from $304.6 million in FY2023 to $345.8 million in FY2024 and $403.3 million in FY2025. Disciplined underwriting turns premium growth into economic value; undisciplined growth can create several years of apparent revenue gains followed by reserve charges.

    Watch: Casualty loss-cost inflation or social inflation rises faster than renewal pricing, making prior-year reserves inadequate.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual net income remained positive in each supplied year and increased from $304.6 million in FY2023 to $345.8 million.

    Open source ↗
  • RLI’s premium float and claims-payment timing remain cash generative enough to fund the investment portfolio and capital needs without relying on external financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $250.4 million in FY2022 to $464.3 million in FY2023, $560.2 million in FY2024 and $614.2 million in FY2025. Sustained operating cash flow lets RLI compound investment assets and absorb volatility; a cash-flow reversal would make growth and capital returns more fragile.

    Watch: A major catastrophe or cluster of specialty property losses accelerates claims payments and consumes float.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $250.4 million in FY2022 to $464.3 million in FY2023, $560.2 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • RLI’s balance-sheet capacity and rating credibility allow it to keep writing specialty risk through market dislocations instead of retreating when competitors tighten.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $1.177 billion at FY2022 year-end to $1.414 billion at FY2023 year-end, $1.522 billion at FY2024 year-end and $1.778 billion at FY2025 year-end. Capacity is part of the customer promise in insurance; if capital strength weakens, brokers and insureds can shift business before losses show up in revenue.

    Watch: A.M. Best or another rating agency downgrades RLI or puts the company on negative outlook after loss or reserve pressure.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $1.177 billion at FY2022 year-end to $1.414 billion at FY2023 year-end, $1.522 billion at FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • RLI’s risk selection and capital allocation convert underwriting and investment profits into per-share value rather than requiring dilutive capital raises; needs calibration: share count, buyback and dividend data are not provided.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS increased from $3.31 in FY2023 to $3.74 in FY2024 and $4.37 in FY2025. Owners benefit only if business gains accrue per share; dilution or capital strain can offset otherwise healthy underwriting growth.

    Watch: RLI issues equity after a large loss event or acquisition, diluting existing owners.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS increased from $3.31 in FY2023 to $3.74 in FY2024 and $4.37 in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

RLI’s specialty-insurance relationships keep attracting risks that standard carriers avoid, so growth can be selected rather than bought through broad price cuts; needs calibration: segment premium growth and retention thresholds are not provided. If broker flow remains advantaged, RLI can grow without surrendering underwriting quality; if broker flow is competed away, growth becomes lower-margin and more cyclical.

RLI’s value creation depends on management preserving underwriting discipline when specialty pricing gets competitive, even if that means giving up premium volume; needs calibration: combined ratio and reserve-development history are not provided. Disciplined underwriting turns premium growth into economic value; undisciplined growth can create several years of apparent revenue gains followed by reserve charges.

RLI’s premium float and claims-payment timing remain cash generative enough to fund the investment portfolio and capital needs without relying on external financing. Sustained operating cash flow lets RLI compound investment assets and absorb volatility; a cash-flow reversal would make growth and capital returns more fragile.

RLI’s balance-sheet capacity and rating credibility allow it to keep writing specialty risk through market dislocations instead of retreating when competitors tighten. Capacity is part of the customer promise in insurance; if capital strength weakens, brokers and insureds can shift business before losses show up in revenue.

RLI’s risk selection and capital allocation convert underwriting and investment profits into per-share value rather than requiring dilutive capital raises; needs calibration: share count, buyback and dividend data are not provided. Owners benefit only if business gains accrue per share; dilution or capital strain can offset otherwise healthy underwriting growth.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

disciplined risk selection keeps broker flow, cash generation and book-value growth intact through insurance cycles.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for RLI

Where the evidence on RLI stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • RLI’s specialty-insurance relationships keep attracting risks that standard carriers avoid, so growth can be selected rather than bought through broad price cuts; needs calibration: segment premium growth and retention thresholds are not provided.

    sec.gov ↗

  • RLI’s value creation depends on management preserving underwriting discipline when specialty pricing gets competitive, even if that means giving up premium volume; needs calibration: combined ratio and reserve-development history are not provided.

    sec.gov ↗

  • RLI’s premium float and claims-payment timing remain cash generative enough to fund the investment portfolio and capital needs without relying on external financing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • RLI’s balance-sheet capacity and rating credibility allow it to keep writing specialty risk through market dislocations instead of retreating when competitors tighten.

    sec.gov ↗

  • RLI’s risk selection and capital allocation convert underwriting and investment profits into per-share value rather than requiring dilutive capital raises; needs calibration: share count, buyback and dividend data are not provided.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Specialty competitors such as W.R. Berkley, Markel, Kinsale, Arch or Chubb win wholesale broker flow by offering broader appetite, faster quoting or lower pricing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Casualty loss-cost inflation or social inflation rises faster than renewal pricing, making prior-year reserves inadequate.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A major catastrophe or cluster of specialty property losses accelerates claims payments and consumes float.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · RLI

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed RLI’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    RLI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    RLI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-28: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    RLI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Specialty competitors such as W.R. Berkley, Markel, Kinsale, Arch or Chubb win wholesale broker flow by offering broader appetite, faster quoting or lower pricing.
  • Casualty loss-cost inflation or social inflation rises faster than renewal pricing, making prior-year reserves inadequate.
  • A major catastrophe or cluster of specialty property losses accelerates claims payments and consumes float.
  • A.M. Best or another rating agency downgrades RLI or puts the company on negative outlook after loss or reserve pressure.
  • RLI issues equity after a large loss event or acquisition, diluting existing owners.

RLI news

Loading headlines…

Financial statements

RLI income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

RLI: quick answers

When does RLI (RLI) report earnings next?
RLI's next results are projected for January 20, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 19, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is RLI's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 8.5M RLI shares were sold short, 9.29% of its shares outstanding, down 5.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 8.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. RLI short interest history
Have members of Congress traded RLI?
10 trades in RLI have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed RLI trade
Which well-known investors own RLI?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported RLI shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 1.0%. Fund portfolios

RLI in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported RLI shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Tom GaynerMarkel Group1.0%$134M+1.1%Q3 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

ScoutJUST THIS STORY

LET’S MAKE THIS USEFUL · 1 OF 5

How would you like me to explain this?

Tell me what you want from this read. Start with a quick note, then adjust the details. Your other stories stay as they are.

We’ll remember your view of this story. The published article stays unchanged.

THIS STORY’S READING VIEWStandard · The whole picture

Clear explanations with context. Both sides of the evidence.