RLI
RLINYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $68.87 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $67.58–$69.47 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 642.1K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 20 projected Projected for 2027-01-20 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $47.26–$71.90 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own RLI if disciplined risk selection keeps broker flow, cash generation and book-value growth intact through insurance cycles.
RLI price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
RLI’s specialty-insurance relationships keep attracting risks that standard carriers avoid, so growth can be selected rather than bought through broad price cuts; needs calibration: segment premium growth and retention thresholds are not provided.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue rose from $1.512 billion in FY2023 to $1.770 billion in FY2024 and $1.882 billion in FY2025. If broker flow remains advantaged, RLI can grow without surrendering underwriting quality; if broker flow is competed away, growth becomes lower-margin and more cyclical.
Watch: Specialty competitors such as W.R. Berkley, Markel, Kinsale, Arch or Chubb win wholesale broker flow by offering broader appetite, faster quoting or lower pricing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue rose from $1.512 billion in FY2023 to $1.770 billion in FY2024 and $1.882 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗RLI’s value creation depends on management preserving underwriting discipline when specialty pricing gets competitive, even if that means giving up premium volume; needs calibration: combined ratio and reserve-development history are not provided.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual net income remained positive in each supplied year and increased from $304.6 million in FY2023 to $345.8 million in FY2024 and $403.3 million in FY2025. Disciplined underwriting turns premium growth into economic value; undisciplined growth can create several years of apparent revenue gains followed by reserve charges.
Watch: Casualty loss-cost inflation or social inflation rises faster than renewal pricing, making prior-year reserves inadequate.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual net income remained positive in each supplied year and increased from $304.6 million in FY2023 to $345.8 million.
Open source ↗RLI’s premium float and claims-payment timing remain cash generative enough to fund the investment portfolio and capital needs without relying on external financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $250.4 million in FY2022 to $464.3 million in FY2023, $560.2 million in FY2024 and $614.2 million in FY2025. Sustained operating cash flow lets RLI compound investment assets and absorb volatility; a cash-flow reversal would make growth and capital returns more fragile.
Watch: A major catastrophe or cluster of specialty property losses accelerates claims payments and consumes float.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $250.4 million in FY2022 to $464.3 million in FY2023, $560.2 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗RLI’s balance-sheet capacity and rating credibility allow it to keep writing specialty risk through market dislocations instead of retreating when competitors tighten.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $1.177 billion at FY2022 year-end to $1.414 billion at FY2023 year-end, $1.522 billion at FY2024 year-end and $1.778 billion at FY2025 year-end. Capacity is part of the customer promise in insurance; if capital strength weakens, brokers and insureds can shift business before losses show up in revenue.
Watch: A.M. Best or another rating agency downgrades RLI or puts the company on negative outlook after loss or reserve pressure.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $1.177 billion at FY2022 year-end to $1.414 billion at FY2023 year-end, $1.522 billion at FY2024.
Open source ↗RLI’s risk selection and capital allocation convert underwriting and investment profits into per-share value rather than requiring dilutive capital raises; needs calibration: share count, buyback and dividend data are not provided.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $3.31 in FY2023 to $3.74 in FY2024 and $4.37 in FY2025. Owners benefit only if business gains accrue per share; dilution or capital strain can offset otherwise healthy underwriting growth.
Watch: RLI issues equity after a large loss event or acquisition, diluting existing owners.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $3.31 in FY2023 to $3.74 in FY2024 and $4.37 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
RLI’s specialty-insurance relationships keep attracting risks that standard carriers avoid, so growth can be selected rather than bought through broad price cuts; needs calibration: segment premium growth and retention thresholds are not provided. If broker flow remains advantaged, RLI can grow without surrendering underwriting quality; if broker flow is competed away, growth becomes lower-margin and more cyclical.
RLI’s value creation depends on management preserving underwriting discipline when specialty pricing gets competitive, even if that means giving up premium volume; needs calibration: combined ratio and reserve-development history are not provided. Disciplined underwriting turns premium growth into economic value; undisciplined growth can create several years of apparent revenue gains followed by reserve charges.
RLI’s premium float and claims-payment timing remain cash generative enough to fund the investment portfolio and capital needs without relying on external financing. Sustained operating cash flow lets RLI compound investment assets and absorb volatility; a cash-flow reversal would make growth and capital returns more fragile.
RLI’s balance-sheet capacity and rating credibility allow it to keep writing specialty risk through market dislocations instead of retreating when competitors tighten. Capacity is part of the customer promise in insurance; if capital strength weakens, brokers and insureds can shift business before losses show up in revenue.
RLI’s risk selection and capital allocation convert underwriting and investment profits into per-share value rather than requiring dilutive capital raises; needs calibration: share count, buyback and dividend data are not provided. Owners benefit only if business gains accrue per share; dilution or capital strain can offset otherwise healthy underwriting growth.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
disciplined risk selection keeps broker flow, cash generation and book-value growth intact through insurance cycles.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for RLI
Where the evidence on RLI stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
RLI’s specialty-insurance relationships keep attracting risks that standard carriers avoid, so growth can be selected rather than bought through broad price cuts; needs calibration: segment premium growth and retention thresholds are not provided.
RLI’s value creation depends on management preserving underwriting discipline when specialty pricing gets competitive, even if that means giving up premium volume; needs calibration: combined ratio and reserve-development history are not provided.
RLI’s premium float and claims-payment timing remain cash generative enough to fund the investment portfolio and capital needs without relying on external financing.
RLI’s balance-sheet capacity and rating credibility allow it to keep writing specialty risk through market dislocations instead of retreating when competitors tighten.
RLI’s risk selection and capital allocation convert underwriting and investment profits into per-share value rather than requiring dilutive capital raises; needs calibration: share count, buyback and dividend data are not provided.
Bear case: what would count against it
Specialty competitors such as W.R. Berkley, Markel, Kinsale, Arch or Chubb win wholesale broker flow by offering broader appetite, faster quoting or lower pricing.
Casualty loss-cost inflation or social inflation rises faster than renewal pricing, making prior-year reserves inadequate.
A major catastrophe or cluster of specialty property losses accelerates claims payments and consumes float.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · RLI
No break has crossed RLI’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedOther material event.
RLI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
RLI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-28: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
RLI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Specialty competitors such as W.R. Berkley, Markel, Kinsale, Arch or Chubb win wholesale broker flow by offering broader appetite, faster quoting or lower pricing.
- Casualty loss-cost inflation or social inflation rises faster than renewal pricing, making prior-year reserves inadequate.
- A major catastrophe or cluster of specialty property losses accelerates claims payments and consumes float.
- A.M. Best or another rating agency downgrades RLI or puts the company on negative outlook after loss or reserve pressure.
- RLI issues equity after a large loss event or acquisition, diluting existing owners.
RLI news
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Financial statements
RLI income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
RLI: quick answers
- When does RLI (RLI) report earnings next?
- RLI's next results are projected for January 20, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 19, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is RLI's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 8.5M RLI shares were sold short, 9.29% of its shares outstanding, down 5.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 8.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. RLI short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded RLI?
- 10 trades in RLI have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed RLI trade
- Which well-known investors own RLI?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported RLI shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 1.0%. Fund portfolios
RLI in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported RLI shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 1.0% | $134M | +1.1% | Q3 2026 |
