Rocky Brands

RCKYNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$52.89
−$0.64 (−1.20%)Today 1M +19.16%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$53.54
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$52.72–$53.36
Regular-session low and high so far today.
22.3K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 23 projected
Projected for 2027-02-23 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$28.34–$55.38
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own RCKY if Rocky Brands earns durable returns by selling branded, performance/work footwear through stable wholesale channels where product durability, brand loyalty and mix drive gross profit and allow modest margins even when volumes cycle.

RCKY price history

Latest price$52.89Today−$0.64 (-1.20%)
RCKY +16.19%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Rocky’s branded footwear and product mix provide pricing and mix resilience that should keep gross profit from collapsing during volume cycles, supporting stable underlying margins.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    gross_profit increased to 197,290,000 (USD) in FY2025 from 179,010,000 in FY2024 and 178,598,000 in FY2023 — a recovery/expansion of absolute gross profit in 2025 despite prior cycles. If gross-profit resilience holds, Rocky can fund SG&A and operating investment without deep margin cuts; if it breaks, operating income and EPS will be undercut even if revenue stabilizes.

    Watch: Large national retailers shift shelf space to lower-cost private-label footwear, reducing Rocky’s ability to maintain price/mix.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    gross_profit increased to 197,290,000 (USD) in FY2025 from 179,010,000 in FY2024 and 178,598,000 in FY2023 — a recovery/expansion of absolute.

    Open source ↗
  • Top-line growth depends on restoring and expanding wholesale/retail distribution and product introductions rather than a cyclical bounce; channel relationships therefore drive revenue more than macro trends.HoldingMateriality: High

    revenue fell from 615,475,000 in FY2022 to 461,833,000 in FY2023, then recovered to 481,976,000 in FY2025 — showing revenue is sensitive to distribution/product cycles. Sustained revenue growth requires management to keep/expand retail placement and sell new SKUs; losing share at major accounts would show up as an early channel read and reverse growth.

    Watch: Major customer/retailer reduces orders or switches to private-label suppliers.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    revenue fell from 615,475,000 in FY2022 to 461,833,000 in FY2023, then recovered to 481,976,000 in FY2025 — showing revenue is.

    Open source ↗
  • Operating-income performance (cost control over SG&A and distribution) is the lever that converts gross profit into shareholder returns — sustaining or growing operating_income is required to justify the current EV/EBITDA multiple.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    operating_income recovered to 37,187,000 (USD) in FY2025 from 31,066,000 in FY2024 after earlier declines from 44,038,000 in FY2022 — showing operating-income sensitivity to cost control. If operating income rises with gross profit, EPS and cash flow can improve; if SG&A or logistics costs scale up, margin leverage disappears and the valuation will look expensive.

    Watch: Permanent increase in SG&A (marketing, DTC investments) or distribution/fulfillment costs that outpace revenue gains.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_income recovered to 37,187,000 (USD) in FY2025 from 31,066,000 in FY2024 after earlier declines from 44,038,000 in FY2022 — showing.

    Open source ↗
  • Rocky’s ability to fund dividends, buybacks and growth depends on stabilizing operating cash flow; current cash generation has been volatile and can constrain capital returns if working-capital swings repeat.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    operating_cash_flow was 73,576,000 (USD) in FY2023, 52,764,000 in FY2024 then dropped to 16,299,000 in FY2025 — a large swing that indicates working-capital/cash conversion volatility. If operating_cash_flow remains volatile and low, management will have to choose between capex, M&A, dividends and buybacks; steady cash flow enables shareholder returns and de-risking.

    Watch: Persistent inventory builds or receivable deterioration tied to slower wholesale collections.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow was 73,576,000 (USD) in FY2023, 52,764,000 in FY2024 then dropped to 16,299,000 in FY2025 — a large swing that.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Rocky’s branded footwear and product mix provide pricing and mix resilience that should keep gross profit from collapsing during volume cycles, supporting stable underlying margins. If gross-profit resilience holds, Rocky can fund SG&A and operating investment without deep margin cuts; if it breaks, operating income and EPS will be undercut even if revenue stabilizes.

Top-line growth depends on restoring and expanding wholesale/retail distribution and product introductions rather than a cyclical bounce; channel relationships therefore drive revenue more than macro trends. Sustained revenue growth requires management to keep/expand retail placement and sell new SKUs; losing share at major accounts would show up as an early channel read and reverse growth.

Operating-income performance (cost control over SG&A and distribution) is the lever that converts gross profit into shareholder returns — sustaining or growing operating_income is required to justify the current EV/EBITDA multiple. If operating income rises with gross profit, EPS and cash flow can improve; if SG&A or logistics costs scale up, margin leverage disappears and the valuation will look expensive.

Rocky’s ability to fund dividends, buybacks and growth depends on stabilizing operating cash flow; current cash generation has been volatile and can constrain capital returns if working-capital swings repeat. If operating_cash_flow remains volatile and low, management will have to choose between capex, M&A, dividends and buybacks; steady cash flow enables shareholder returns and de-risking.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Rocky Brands earns durable returns by selling branded, performance/work footwear through stable wholesale channels where product durability, brand loyalty and mix drive gross profit and allow modest margins even when volumes cycle.

Evidence assessed Nov 7, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Rocky Brands

Where the evidence on Rocky Brands disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Rocky’s branded footwear and product mix provide pricing and mix resilience that should keep gross profit from collapsing during volume cycles, supporting stable underlying margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Top-line growth depends on restoring and expanding wholesale/retail distribution and product introductions rather than a cyclical bounce; channel relationships therefore drive revenue more than macro trends.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Operating-income performance (cost control over SG&A and distribution) is the lever that converts gross profit into shareholder returns — sustaining or growing operating_income is required to justify the current EV/EBITDA multiple.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Rocky’s ability to fund dividends, buybacks and growth depends on stabilizing operating cash flow; current cash generation has been volatile and can constrain capital returns if working-capital swings repeat.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Rocky Brands’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Rocky Brands, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Rocky Brands.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Rocky Brands filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Rocky Brands filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Rocky Brands filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-18: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large national retailers shift shelf space to lower-cost private-label footwear, reducing Rocky’s ability to maintain price/mix.
  • Major customer/retailer reduces orders or switches to private-label suppliers.
  • Permanent increase in SG&A (marketing, DTC investments) or distribution/fulfillment costs that outpace revenue gains.
  • Persistent inventory builds or receivable deterioration tied to slower wholesale collections.

RCKY news

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Financial statements

RCKY income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

RCKY: quick answers

When does Rocky Brands (RCKY) report earnings next?
Rocky Brands's next results are projected for February 23, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is RCKY's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 158,572 RCKY shares were sold short, 2.11% of its shares outstanding, down 12.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. RCKY short interest history
Have members of Congress traded RCKY?
5 trades in RCKY have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed RCKY trade
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