AVITA Medical
RCELNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $17.65 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $17.12–$18.24 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 674.5K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 11 projected Projected for 2027-02-11 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $3.22–$18.43 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own RCEL if its acute-wound technology becomes a routine hospital standard in burns and full-thickness skin defects before losses and funding needs overwhelm the equity.
RCEL price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Hospitals continue to choose AVITA’s acute-wound solution because it improves clinical and economic wound outcomes versus graft-only pathways, allowing usage in burns and full-thickness skin defects to deepen.HoldingMateriality: High
Annual GAAP revenue increased from $34.421 million in FY2022 to $71.610 million in FY2025. If adoption deepens, the small revenue base can compound; if hospitals view the product as optional, growth will stall before scale economics arrive.
Watch: Burn centers standardize protocols around conventional split-thickness autograft plus dermal matrices rather than AVITA’s approach.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual GAAP revenue increased from $34.421 million in FY2022 to $71.610 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Differentiation and reimbursement value keep realized pricing above manufacturing and consumable cost, so growth is not being bought through discounting.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Annual GAAP gross profit was $58.816 million on $71.610 million of FY2025 revenue, an implied gross margin of about 82%. High gross profit gives AVITA room to fund commercialization; margin erosion would mean adoption is less valuable than headline revenue suggests.
Watch: CMS or private payer reimbursement changes reduce hospital willingness to pay for AVITA’s acute-wound solution.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual GAAP gross profit was $58.816 million on $71.610 million of FY2025 revenue, an implied gross margin of about 82%.
Open source ↗The commercial infrastructure is scalable: incremental hospital adoption can be serviced without adding selling, clinical-support, and R&D cost dollar-for-dollar.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Annual GAAP operating loss improved from $(56.593) million in FY2024 to $(42.534) million in FY2025. The equity needs operating leverage, not just revenue growth; otherwise high gross margins will not translate into cash generation.
Watch: Surgeons require intensive case-by-case training and clinical support, preventing leverage as accounts expand.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual GAAP operating loss improved from $(56.593) million in FY2024 to $(42.534) million in FY2025.
Open source ↗AVITA reaches a funding bridge to self-sufficiency before balance-sheet pressure forces value transfer to new capital providers.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
Cash remained positive at $10.243 million at FY2025 year-end. Even a useful product can be a poor stock if cash burn, debt, or dilution captures the upside before breakeven.
Watch: Capital markets close to small loss-making med-tech issuers, forcing a dilutive equity raise.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash remained positive at $10.243 million at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Hospitals continue to choose AVITA’s acute-wound solution because it improves clinical and economic wound outcomes versus graft-only pathways, allowing usage in burns and full-thickness skin defects to deepen. If adoption deepens, the small revenue base can compound; if hospitals view the product as optional, growth will stall before scale economics arrive.
Differentiation and reimbursement value keep realized pricing above manufacturing and consumable cost, so growth is not being bought through discounting. High gross profit gives AVITA room to fund commercialization; margin erosion would mean adoption is less valuable than headline revenue suggests.
The commercial infrastructure is scalable: incremental hospital adoption can be serviced without adding selling, clinical-support, and R&D cost dollar-for-dollar. The equity needs operating leverage, not just revenue growth; otherwise high gross margins will not translate into cash generation.
AVITA reaches a funding bridge to self-sufficiency before balance-sheet pressure forces value transfer to new capital providers. Even a useful product can be a poor stock if cash burn, debt, or dilution captures the upside before breakeven.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its acute-wound technology becomes a routine hospital standard in burns and full-thickness skin defects before losses and funding needs overwhelm the equity.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for AVITA Medical
Where the evidence on AVITA Medical disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Hospitals continue to choose AVITA’s acute-wound solution because it improves clinical and economic wound outcomes versus graft-only pathways, allowing usage in burns and full-thickness skin defects to deepen.
Differentiation and reimbursement value keep realized pricing above manufacturing and consumable cost, so growth is not being bought through discounting.
The commercial infrastructure is scalable: incremental hospital adoption can be serviced without adding selling, clinical-support, and R&D cost dollar-for-dollar.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
AVITA reaches a funding bridge to self-sufficiency before balance-sheet pressure forces value transfer to new capital providers.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · AVITA Medical
No break has crossed AVITA Medical’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through AVITA Medical’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Revenue decline, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 3,039 times before. Those stocks beat the market by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 32% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
AVITA Medical filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-11: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
AVITA Medical filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
AVITA Medical filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-08: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Burn centers standardize protocols around conventional split-thickness autograft plus dermal matrices rather than AVITA’s approach.
- CMS or private payer reimbursement changes reduce hospital willingness to pay for AVITA’s acute-wound solution.
- Surgeons require intensive case-by-case training and clinical support, preventing leverage as accounts expand.
- Capital markets close to small loss-making med-tech issuers, forcing a dilutive equity raise.
RCEL news
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Financial statements
RCEL income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
RCEL: quick answers
- When does AVITA Medical (RCEL) report earnings next?
- AVITA Medical's next results are projected for February 11, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is RCEL's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 2.8M RCEL shares were sold short, 8.93% of its shares outstanding, down 1.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. RCEL short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded RCEL?
- 1 trade in RCEL has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed RCEL trade