Roblox

RBLXNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$52.61
+$1.42 (+2.77%)Today 1M +9.40%
After hours$52.00−1.16%

Updated Nov 11, 4:03 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$51.19
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$51.05–$54.20
Regular-session low and high so far today.
7.6M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:03 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$33.88–$105.30
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own RBLX if Roblox is a creator-driven social platform whose two network effects — user-generated content and social connections — convert growing engagement into high-margin top-line and strong operating cash flow, while heavy ongoing investment and safety.

RBLX price history

Latest price$52.61Today+$1.42 (+2.77%)
RBLX +8.32%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Roblox’s two network effects (user-generated content and social connections) will continue to convert engagement into sustained revenue growth because creators are economically incentivized to supply more content as monetization opportunities rise.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    revenue grew from 2,799,274,000 USD in FY2023 to 3,601,979,000 USD in FY2024 to 4,890,551,000 USD in FY2025 (revenue). If true, revenue growth continues and funds investment; if false, top-line growth could decelerate and the valuation compresses.

    Watch: a sustained creator exodus to a competing platform (e.g., a rival offering materially better monetization or tools) that reduces new content supply and engagement.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    revenue grew from 2,799,274,000 USD in FY2023 to 3,601,979,000 USD in FY2024 to 4,890,551,000 USD in FY2025 (revenue).

    Open source ↗
  • The core platform economics can and have produced durable, growing operating cash flow that funds investments and cushions the equity value even while GAAP operating income remains negative.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    operating_cash_flow increased from 458,180,000 USD (FY2023) to 822,316,000 USD (FY2024) to 1,796,358,000 USD (FY2025) (operating_cash_flow). Sustained operating cash flow reduces the need for equity dilution or debt and makes the business defensible even if GAAP profits lag.

    Watch: a sharp rise in payout rates to creators, payment-processing fees, or infrastructure costs (e.g., large new cloud/AI compute contracts) that materially reduces cash conversion.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow increased from 458,180,000 USD (FY2023) to 822,316,000 USD (FY2024) to 1,796,358,000 USD (FY2025) (operating_cash_flow).

    Open source ↗
  • Roblox’s expanding gross profit indicates the platform’s monetization and core economics are high-margin, creating room for operating leverage if growth continues and operating expense growth is controlled.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    gross_profit rose from 2,150,159,000 USD (FY2023 estimate) to 2,800,817,000 USD (FY2024 estimate) to 3,818,252,000 USD (FY2025 estimate) (gross_profit). High gross margins make profitable scaling feasible; if margins compress, the path to sustainable profits narrows.

    Watch: increases in cost of revenue such as higher creator payouts, elevated payment-processing fees, or higher trust & safety delivery costs that materially lower gross margins.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    gross_profit rose from 2,150,159,000 USD (FY2023 estimate) to 2,800,817,000 USD (FY2024 estimate) to 3,818,252,000 USD (FY2025 estimate) (gross_profit).

    Open source ↗
  • The market requires a credible route to materially smaller GAAP operating losses (or sustained high free cash flow); absent visible operating_income improvement the stock is at risk of multiple compression.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    operating_income has been a large negative number: -1,259,067,000 USD (FY2023), -1,063,317,000 USD (FY2024), and -1,232,342,000 USD (FY2025) (operating_income). If operating losses persist or widen without explanation, investors may demand a lower valuation despite revenue growth.

    Watch: continued heavy investment in R&D, creator incentives, and safety that keep GAAP operating losses persistent.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_income has been a large negative number: -1,259,067,000 USD (FY2023), -1,063,317,000 USD (FY2024), and -1,232,342,000 USD (FY2025) (operating_income).

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Roblox’s two network effects (user-generated content and social connections) will continue to convert engagement into sustained revenue growth because creators are economically incentivized to supply more content as monetization opportunities rise. If true, revenue growth continues and funds investment; if false, top-line growth could decelerate and the valuation compresses.

The core platform economics can and have produced durable, growing operating cash flow that funds investments and cushions the equity value even while GAAP operating income remains negative. Sustained operating cash flow reduces the need for equity dilution or debt and makes the business defensible even if GAAP profits lag.

Roblox’s expanding gross profit indicates the platform’s monetization and core economics are high-margin, creating room for operating leverage if growth continues and operating expense growth is controlled. High gross margins make profitable scaling feasible; if margins compress, the path to sustainable profits narrows.

The market requires a credible route to materially smaller GAAP operating losses (or sustained high free cash flow); absent visible operating_income improvement the stock is at risk of multiple compression. If operating losses persist or widen without explanation, investors may demand a lower valuation despite revenue growth.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Roblox is a creator-driven social platform whose two network effects — user-generated content and social connections — convert growing engagement into high-margin top-line and strong operating cash flow, while heavy ongoing investment and safety.

Evidence assessed Oct 30, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Roblox

Where the evidence on Roblox disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 30, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 1 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Roblox’s two network effects (user-generated content and social connections) will continue to convert engagement into sustained revenue growth because creators are economically incentivized to supply more content as monetization opportunities rise.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The core platform economics can and have produced durable, growing operating cash flow that funds investments and cushions the equity value even while GAAP operating income remains negative.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Roblox’s expanding gross profit indicates the platform’s monetization and core economics are high-margin, creating room for operating leverage if growth continues and operating expense growth is controlled.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • The market requires a credible route to materially smaller GAAP operating losses (or sustained high free cash flow); absent visible operating_income improvement the stock is at risk of multiple compression.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Roblox

Loading the break-condition record for Roblox.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Roblox filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Roblox filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Roblox filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-19: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • a sustained creator exodus to a competing platform (e.g., a rival offering materially better monetization or tools) that reduces new content supply and engagement.
  • a sharp rise in payout rates to creators, payment-processing fees, or infrastructure costs (e.g., large new cloud/AI compute contracts) that materially reduces cash conversion.
  • increases in cost of revenue such as higher creator payouts, elevated payment-processing fees, or higher trust & safety delivery costs that materially lower gross margins.
  • continued heavy investment in R&D, creator incentives, and safety that keep GAAP operating losses persistent.

RBLX news

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Financial statements

RBLX income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

RBLX: quick answers

What is RBLX's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 17.7M RBLX shares were sold short, down 31.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. RBLX short interest history
Have members of Congress traded RBLX?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 7 trades in RBLX by 1 filer: 2 purchases and 5 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed RBLX trade
Which well-known investors own RBLX?
3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported RBLX shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: ValueAct, 3.0%; ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 2.3%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

RBLX in well-known investors’ portfolios

3 of 37 funds reported RBLX shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
ValueAct3.0%$171M−46.2%Q2 2026
Cathie WoodARK Investment Management2.3%$352M+9.7%Q2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.00%$697KNo changeQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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