Restaurant Brands International

QSRNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$75.48
−$1.18 (−1.54%)Today 1M +6.13%
After hours$75.49+0.01%

Updated Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$76.66
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$75.11–$77.10
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.8M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 11 projected
Projected for 2027-02-11 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$65.43–$81.96
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own QSR if Restaurant Brands International converts a predominantly franchised global portfolio (Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, Firehouse Subs) and accelerated refranchising into high cash conversion, steady royalty growth and margin expansion driven by unit growth, digital/drive-thru.

QSR price history

Latest price$75.48Today−$1.18 (-1.54%)
QSR +5.83%S&P 500 -2.67%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • The high-share franchised model (>95% franchised) is the primary driver of durable free cash generation and operating leverage; continued royalty and fee growth will convert into steady operating_cash_flow and high cash returns with limited capital spend.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Business text: over 95% of system-wide restaurants were franchised (Item 1 Business). If franchise economics hold, RBI can compound cash flow and fund buybacks/dividends or reinvest, justifying a premium multiple; if franchisee profitability or the ability to collect royalties is impaired, cash generation will fall and the valuation compresses.

    Watch: A sustained decline in franchisee profitability (cost pressures, labor/food inflation) that forces royalty concessions or higher franchisee failures.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Business text: over 95% of system-wide restaurants were franchised (Item 1 Business).

    Open source ↗
  • Executing the planned refranchising of Carrols restaurants and moving China and Brazil restaurants to partners/JVs will shift line-item sales into royalties and reduce Company restaurant costs, producing operating margin expansion (higher operating_income) over time.HoldingMateriality: High

    MD&A: management intends to refranchise the vast majority of Carrols Burger King restaurants and find new partners for PLK China and FHS Brazil (Restaurant Holdings segment description). Successful execution materially increases operating margins and capital efficiency; failure or low-value deals leave RBI carrying company-restaurant costs and depress margins.

    Watch: An inability to find buyers/partners at acceptable economics, forcing RBI to retain company restaurants.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    MD&A: management intends to refranchise the vast majority of Carrols Burger King restaurants and find new partners for PLK China.

    Open source ↗
  • A diversified portfolio of four iconic brands with complementary dayparts and a large international footprint supports resilient system-wide sales growth and reduces brand-specific cyclicality, allowing consolidated revenue growth even if individual markets soften.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Business text: nearly $47B in system-wide sales and 33,041 restaurants across 120+ countries as of Dec 31, 2025. If system-wide sales and unit growth continue, RBI converts that breadth into higher royalties and fee income; if brands lose share or a major region weakens (e.g., China), consolidated revenue growth will slow and royalties will lag.

    Watch: Loss of market share in a key brand or region (for example a poor Burger King or Popeyes rollout) due to stronger local competitors or failed menu initiatives.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Business text: nearly $47B in system-wide sales and 33,041 restaurants across 120+ countries as of Dec 31, 2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Investments in digital ordering, loyalty programs and drive-thru/restaurant modernization will increase guest frequency and average unit volumes, improving margins and EPS over time if franchisees adopt and economics scale.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Business text: management emphasizes loyalty programs, digital ordering platforms (kiosks), and drive-thru/delivery expansion as strategic priorities to enhance convenience and guest experience. If digital/loyalty adoption materially increases AUVs, revenue growth will be higher-margin and justify a premium multiple; if adoption stalls or delivery/digital costs rise, ROI will be poor and margins could compress.

    Watch: Franchisee resistance to funding or adopting digital initiatives, reducing scale and diluting benefit.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Business text: management emphasizes loyalty programs, digital ordering platforms (kiosks), and drive-thru/delivery expansion as strategic priorities to enhance convenience and.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

The high-share franchised model (>95% franchised) is the primary driver of durable free cash generation and operating leverage; continued royalty and fee growth will convert into steady operating_cash_flow and high cash returns with limited capital spend. If franchise economics hold, RBI can compound cash flow and fund buybacks/dividends or reinvest, justifying a premium multiple; if franchisee profitability or the ability to collect royalties is impaired, cash generation will fall and the valuation compresses.

Executing the planned refranchising of Carrols restaurants and moving China and Brazil restaurants to partners/JVs will shift line-item sales into royalties and reduce Company restaurant costs, producing operating margin expansion (higher operating_income) over time. Successful execution materially increases operating margins and capital efficiency; failure or low-value deals leave RBI carrying company-restaurant costs and depress margins.

A diversified portfolio of four iconic brands with complementary dayparts and a large international footprint supports resilient system-wide sales growth and reduces brand-specific cyclicality, allowing consolidated revenue growth even if individual markets soften. If system-wide sales and unit growth continue, RBI converts that breadth into higher royalties and fee income; if brands lose share or a major region weakens (e.g., China), consolidated revenue growth will slow and royalties will lag.

Investments in digital ordering, loyalty programs and drive-thru/restaurant modernization will increase guest frequency and average unit volumes, improving margins and EPS over time if franchisees adopt and economics scale. If digital/loyalty adoption materially increases AUVs, revenue growth will be higher-margin and justify a premium multiple; if adoption stalls or delivery/digital costs rise, ROI will be poor and margins could compress.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Restaurant Brands International converts a predominantly franchised global portfolio (Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, Firehouse Subs) and accelerated refranchising into high cash conversion, steady royalty growth and margin expansion driven by unit growth, digital/drive-thru.

Evidence assessed Nov 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Restaurant Brands International

Where the evidence on Restaurant Brands International stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • The high-share franchised model (>95% franchised) is the primary driver of durable free cash generation and operating leverage; continued royalty and fee growth will convert into steady operating_cash_flow and high cash returns with limited capital spend.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Executing the planned refranchising of Carrols restaurants and moving China and Brazil restaurants to partners/JVs will shift line-item sales into royalties and reduce Company restaurant costs, producing operating margin expansion (higher operating_income) over time.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A diversified portfolio of four iconic brands with complementary dayparts and a large international footprint supports resilient system-wide sales growth and reduces brand-specific cyclicality, allowing consolidated revenue growth even if individual markets soften.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Investments in digital ordering, loyalty programs and drive-thru/restaurant modernization will increase guest frequency and average unit volumes, improving margins and EPS over time if franchisees adopt and economics scale.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A sustained decline in franchisee profitability (cost pressures, labor/food inflation) that forces royalty concessions or higher franchisee failures.

    sec.gov ↗

  • An inability to find buyers/partners at acceptable economics, forcing RBI to retain company restaurants.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Loss of market share in a key brand or region (for example a poor Burger King or Popeyes rollout) due to stronger local competitors or failed menu initiatives.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Restaurant Brands International

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Restaurant Brands International’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Restaurant Brands International filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Restaurant Brands International filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-10: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Restaurant Brands International filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A sustained decline in franchisee profitability (cost pressures, labor/food inflation) that forces royalty concessions or higher franchisee failures.
  • An inability to find buyers/partners at acceptable economics, forcing RBI to retain company restaurants.
  • Loss of market share in a key brand or region (for example a poor Burger King or Popeyes rollout) due to stronger local competitors or failed menu initiatives.
  • Franchisee resistance to funding or adopting digital initiatives, reducing scale and diluting benefit.

QSR news

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Financial statements

QSR income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

QSR: quick answers

When does Restaurant Brands International (QSR) report earnings next?
Restaurant Brands International's next results are projected for February 11, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is QSR's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 16.0M QSR shares were sold short, down 6.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. QSR short interest history
Which well-known investors own QSR?
3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported QSR shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Pershing Square (Bill Ackman), 9.6%; Baupost Group (Seth Klarman), 9.0%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

QSR in well-known investors’ portfolios

3 of 37 funds reported QSR shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Bill AckmanPershing Square9.6%$1.9B—Q2 2026
Seth KlarmanBaupost Group9.0%$490M−16.4%Q2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.03%$6.8M−11.0%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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