Quantum

QMCONASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$16.87
+$0.57 (+3.50%)Today 1M −44.56%
After hours$16.56−1.84%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$16.30
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$16.40–$17.97
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.8M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$4.19–$35.65
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own QMCO if QMCO is a levered turnaround option on Quantum proving its niche in unstructured-data storage for AI is differentiated enough to restore cash generation before the balance sheet closes the window.

QMCO price history

Latest price$16.87Today+$0.57 (+3.50%)
QMCO -39.67%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • AI-era unstructured-data workloads remain complex enough that enterprises continue to need Quantum’s end-to-end data-management offering rather than moving new projects entirely to cloud-native or larger-OEM storage stacks.HoldingMateriality: High

    Item 1 Business overview describes Quantum as delivering end-to-end data management solutions for unstructured data in the AI era. If this holds, revenue stabilization can be the base for a turnaround; if it breaks, Quantum loses the demand engine before cost cuts can matter.

    Watch: Enterprise AI data projects standardize on hyperscale cloud storage and data platforms such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Snowflake, or Databricks instead of dedicated Quantum-managed infrastructure.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Item 1 Business overview describes Quantum as delivering end-to-end data management solutions for unstructured data in the AI era.

    Open source ↗
  • Workflow specialization and installed-base/service mix preserve enough pricing power for Quantum to avoid competing purely as a commodity storage hardware vendor.HoldingMateriality: High

    FY2026 annual GAAP gross profit was $103.0 million on $279.6 million of GAAP revenue, implying a gross margin of about 36.9%. If pricing power holds, revenue can translate into usable gross profit; if Quantum is forced into commodity bids, growth would be low-quality and cash-negative.

    Watch: Dell, HPE, NetApp, Pure Storage, or other larger vendors discount aggressively and make Quantum match price to retain enterprise accounts.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2026 annual GAAP gross profit was $103.0 million on $279.6 million of GAAP revenue, implying a gross margin of about.

    Open source ↗
  • Restructuring and operating discipline can turn a stabilized revenue base into operating leverage, provided the sales, support, and R&D required for specialized storage workflows do not rise in lockstep with each deployment.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    FY2026 annual GAAP operating loss was $24.5 million, improved from a $41.7 million GAAP operating loss in FY2025. If this holds, even modest revenue stability can improve equity value; if it fails, Quantum remains a structurally loss-making niche vendor.

    Watch: Service complexity rises as customers deploy more heterogeneous AI and unstructured-data workflows, requiring more engineering and support headcount.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2026 annual GAAP operating loss was $24.5 million, improved from a $41.7 million GAAP operating loss in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Liquidity is the gating factor: the turnaround must stop consuming cash before vendors, lenders, or customers force uneconomic financing terms.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2026 annual GAAP operating cash flow was negative $37.9 million, worse than negative $23.6 million in FY2025 and negative $10.2 million in FY2024. If cash burn persists, common shareholders may be diluted or impaired even if the product thesis is partly right.

    Watch: A committed refinancing, strategic investment, or customer prepayment materially extends liquidity without punitive dilution.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2026 annual GAAP operating cash flow was negative $37.9 million, worse than negative $23.6 million in FY2025 and negative $10.2.

    Open source ↗
  • The capital structure will cap common-equity upside unless creditor claims are reduced, extended, or converted on terms that leave shareholders with meaningful participation.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Liabilities were $355.7 million at March 31, 2026, compared with assets of $156.9 million. This determines whether operating improvement accrues to common shareholders or mainly rescues creditors.

    Watch: Quantum completes a debt exchange or refinancing that extends maturities and lowers cash burden without material dilution.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Liabilities were $355.7 million at March 31, 2026, compared with assets of $156.9 million.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

AI-era unstructured-data workloads remain complex enough that enterprises continue to need Quantum’s end-to-end data-management offering rather than moving new projects entirely to cloud-native or larger-OEM storage stacks. If this holds, revenue stabilization can be the base for a turnaround; if it breaks, Quantum loses the demand engine before cost cuts can matter.

Workflow specialization and installed-base/service mix preserve enough pricing power for Quantum to avoid competing purely as a commodity storage hardware vendor. If pricing power holds, revenue can translate into usable gross profit; if Quantum is forced into commodity bids, growth would be low-quality and cash-negative.

Restructuring and operating discipline can turn a stabilized revenue base into operating leverage, provided the sales, support, and R&D required for specialized storage workflows do not rise in lockstep with each deployment. If this holds, even modest revenue stability can improve equity value; if it fails, Quantum remains a structurally loss-making niche vendor.

Liquidity is the gating factor: the turnaround must stop consuming cash before vendors, lenders, or customers force uneconomic financing terms. If cash burn persists, common shareholders may be diluted or impaired even if the product thesis is partly right.

The capital structure will cap common-equity upside unless creditor claims are reduced, extended, or converted on terms that leave shareholders with meaningful participation. This determines whether operating improvement accrues to common shareholders or mainly rescues creditors.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

QMCO is a levered turnaround option on Quantum proving its niche in unstructured-data storage for AI is differentiated enough to restore cash generation before the balance sheet closes the window.

Evidence assessed Oct 16, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Quantum

Where the evidence on Quantum stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 16, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • AI-era unstructured-data workloads remain complex enough that enterprises continue to need Quantum’s end-to-end data-management offering rather than moving new projects entirely to cloud-native or larger-OEM storage stacks.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Workflow specialization and installed-base/service mix preserve enough pricing power for Quantum to avoid competing purely as a commodity storage hardware vendor.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Restructuring and operating discipline can turn a stabilized revenue base into operating leverage, provided the sales, support, and R&D required for specialized storage workflows do not rise in lockstep with each deployment.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Liquidity is the gating factor: the turnaround must stop consuming cash before vendors, lenders, or customers force uneconomic financing terms.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The capital structure will cap common-equity upside unless creditor claims are reduced, extended, or converted on terms that leave shareholders with meaningful participation.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Enterprise AI data projects standardize on hyperscale cloud storage and data platforms such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Snowflake, or Databricks instead of dedicated Quantum-managed infrastructure.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Dell, HPE, NetApp, Pure Storage, or other larger vendors discount aggressively and make Quantum match price to retain enterprise accounts.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Service complexity rises as customers deploy more heterogeneous AI and unstructured-data workflows, requiring more engineering and support headcount.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Quantum’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Quantum, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Quantum.

peers+15%-20%-2%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -2% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -20%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Quantum filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-09: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Quantum filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-28: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Quantum filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-01: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Enterprise AI data projects standardize on hyperscale cloud storage and data platforms such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Snowflake, or Databricks instead of dedicated Quantum-managed infrastructure.
  • Dell, HPE, NetApp, Pure Storage, or other larger vendors discount aggressively and make Quantum match price to retain enterprise accounts.
  • Service complexity rises as customers deploy more heterogeneous AI and unstructured-data workflows, requiring more engineering and support headcount.
  • A committed refinancing, strategic investment, or customer prepayment materially extends liquidity without punitive dilution.
  • Quantum completes a debt exchange or refinancing that extends maturities and lowers cash burden without material dilution.

QMCO news

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Financial statements

QMCO income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

QMCO: quick answers

What is QMCO's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 4.5M QMCO shares were sold short, 11.4% of its shares outstanding, up 46.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.0 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. QMCO short interest history
Which well-known investors own QMCO?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported QMCO shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks), 0.3%. Fund portfolios

QMCO in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported QMCO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Howard MarksOaktree Capital Management0.31%$22.1MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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