Palomar Holdings
PLMRNASDAQUSD
- — Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- — Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- — Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $156.78 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $153.76–$161.37 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 555.2K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 10 projected Projected for 2027-02-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $100.81–$162.08 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own PLMR if Palomar can compound value by using data-driven, granular specialty underwriting (especially in earthquake and other niche lines), an A-rated admitted/surplus platform and reinsurance to scale premium and earnings while preserving underwriting returns.
PLMR price history
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INVESTMENT THESIS
What must happen next
Palomar’s data-driven, granular underwriting sustains above-market risk-adjusted returns and drives profitable organic growth as scale increases.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Business text: "We have been profitable since 2016, and our net income has increased over that period at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 46%.". If underwriting discipline holds, revenue growth converts directly into net income and cash, supporting valuation and capital for reinvestment; if it breaks, growth will produce losses and force capital actions or higher reinsurance costs.
Watch: A major catastrophe (large earthquake or weather event) causing large catastrophe losses that overwhelm XOL reinsurance or increase loss adjustment expenses.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business text: "We have been profitable since 2016, and our net income has increased over that period at a compound.
Open source ↗Palomar’s comprehensive reinsurance program materially reduces earnings volatility and enables capital-efficient growth; access to affordable XOL/quota-share capacity is a required input for scaling premium without capital strain.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A: explicit description of a comprehensive risk transfer program intended to reduce earnings volatility. If reinsurance capacity and pricing remain available, Palomar can scale faster with limited capital strain; if reinsurance hardens or reinsurers withdraw, growth will either slow or require higher capital/retentions, pressuring returns.
Watch: Hardening reinsurance market: rising XOL costs or reinsurer capacity withdrawal leading to materially higher ceded cost or reduced quota-share participation.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: explicit description of a comprehensive risk transfer program intended to reduce earnings volatility.
Open source ↗Scale in earthquake and other specialty niches (supported by admitted and E&S offerings) gives Palomar distribution advantages and pricing power that support above-market growth.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Business text: "we have quickly and profitably grown to become the 2nd largest earthquake insurer in the state of California and the 3rd largest earthquake insurer in the United States.". Sustained niche leadership lets Palomar grow premium faster than peers while defending margins; losing that niche position or distribution would slow growth and compress returns.
Watch: A large earthquake or series of losses making insurers/unicorns retreat from offering earthquake capacity, compressing Palomar’s ability to re-price or causing reserve hits.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business text: "we have quickly and profitably grown to become the 2nd largest earthquake insurer in the state of California.
Open source ↗Acquisitions (e.g., Gray Surety) financed by external credit increase leverage and concentration risk; these deals must produce underwriting returns in-line with Palomar’s specialty margins to justify the capital and maintain ratings.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Business text: acquisition of Gray Surety in Jan 2026 and a $450 million unsecured credit facility to facilitate the acquisition. If acquisitions deliver expected returns, they diversify and accelerate growth; if not, they erode equity, pressure ratings and force either equity raises or slower growth.
Watch: Poor integration or underwriting losses from surety/casualty businesses producing negative reserve development or persistent losses.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business text: acquisition of Gray Surety in Jan 2026 and a $450 million unsecured credit facility to facilitate the acquisition.
Open source ↗Maintaining an A.M. Best A financial strength rating (backed by capital) is a key structural moat that supports admitted product distribution and favorable terms; preserving capital adequacy (equity) is therefore essential to preserve pricing and distribution advantages.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Business text: "Our insurance company subsidiaries ... carry an A financial strength rating from A.M. Best Company.". A downgrade would raise reinsurance and borrowing costs and constrain admitted business growth; sustained capital build supports rating and distribution.
Watch: A major underwriting loss or sustained below-cost pricing that materially erodes equity.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business text: "Our insurance company subsidiaries ... carry an A financial strength rating from A.M. Best Company.".
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Palomar’s data-driven, granular underwriting sustains above-market risk-adjusted returns and drives profitable organic growth as scale increases. If underwriting discipline holds, revenue growth converts directly into net income and cash, supporting valuation and capital for reinvestment; if it breaks, growth will produce losses and force capital actions or higher reinsurance costs.
Palomar’s comprehensive reinsurance program materially reduces earnings volatility and enables capital-efficient growth; access to affordable XOL/quota-share capacity is a required input for scaling premium without capital strain. If reinsurance capacity and pricing remain available, Palomar can scale faster with limited capital strain; if reinsurance hardens or reinsurers withdraw, growth will either slow or require higher capital/retentions, pressuring returns.
Scale in earthquake and other specialty niches (supported by admitted and E&S offerings) gives Palomar distribution advantages and pricing power that support above-market growth. Sustained niche leadership lets Palomar grow premium faster than peers while defending margins; losing that niche position or distribution would slow growth and compress returns.
Acquisitions (e.g., Gray Surety) financed by external credit increase leverage and concentration risk; these deals must produce underwriting returns in-line with Palomar’s specialty margins to justify the capital and maintain ratings. If acquisitions deliver expected returns, they diversify and accelerate growth; if not, they erode equity, pressure ratings and force either equity raises or slower growth.
Maintaining an A.M. Best A financial strength rating (backed by capital) is a key structural moat that supports admitted product distribution and favorable terms; preserving capital adequacy (equity) is therefore essential to preserve pricing and distribution advantages. A downgrade would raise reinsurance and borrowing costs and constrain admitted business growth; sustained capital build supports rating and distribution.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Palomar can compound value by using data-driven, granular specialty underwriting (especially in earthquake and other niche lines), an A-rated admitted/surplus platform and reinsurance to scale premium and earnings while preserving underwriting returns.
BULL CASE / BEAR CASE
Bull case and bear case for Palomar Holdings
Where the evidence on Palomar Holdings stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Palomar’s data-driven, granular underwriting sustains above-market risk-adjusted returns and drives profitable organic growth as scale increases.
Palomar’s comprehensive reinsurance program materially reduces earnings volatility and enables capital-efficient growth; access to affordable XOL/quota-share capacity is a required input for scaling premium without capital strain.
Scale in earthquake and other specialty niches (supported by admitted and E&S offerings) gives Palomar distribution advantages and pricing power that support above-market growth.
Acquisitions (e.g., Gray Surety) financed by external credit increase leverage and concentration risk; these deals must produce underwriting returns in-line with Palomar’s specialty margins to justify the capital and maintain ratings.
Maintaining an A.M. Best A financial strength rating (backed by capital) is a key structural moat that supports admitted product distribution and favorable terms; preserving capital adequacy (equity) is therefore essential to preserve pricing and distribution advantages.
Bear case: what would count against it
A major catastrophe (large earthquake or weather event) causing large catastrophe losses that overwhelm XOL reinsurance or increase loss adjustment expenses.
Hardening reinsurance market: rising XOL costs or reinsurer capacity withdrawal leading to materially higher ceded cost or reduced quota-share participation.
A large earthquake or series of losses making insurers/unicorns retreat from offering earthquake capacity, compressing Palomar’s ability to re-price or causing reserve hits.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Palomar Holdings
No break has crossed Palomar Holdings’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MIXEDReported results of operations (earnings release).
Palomar Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDRegulation FD disclosure.
Palomar Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-11: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDReported results of operations (earnings release).
Palomar Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
RISKS / FALSIFIERS
What could break the thesis
- A major catastrophe (large earthquake or weather event) causing large catastrophe losses that overwhelm XOL reinsurance or increase loss adjustment expenses.
- Hardening reinsurance market: rising XOL costs or reinsurer capacity withdrawal leading to materially higher ceded cost or reduced quota-share participation.
- A large earthquake or series of losses making insurers/unicorns retreat from offering earthquake capacity, compressing Palomar’s ability to re-price or causing reserve hits.
- Poor integration or underwriting losses from surety/casualty businesses producing negative reserve development or persistent losses.
- A major underwriting loss or sustained below-cost pricing that materially erodes equity.
PLMR news
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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
PLMR income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
PLMR: quick answers
- When does Palomar Holdings (PLMR) report earnings next?
- Palomar Holdings's next results are projected for February 10, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is PLMR's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 612,461 PLMR shares were sold short, down 14.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. PLMR short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded PLMR?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in PLMR by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed PLMR trade