Prologis

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THESIS ALERT

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$130.03
−$0.07 (−0.05%)Today 1M +0.42%
After hours$130.62+0.45%

Updated Nov 11, 4:03 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$130.10
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$128.66–$130.58
Regular-session low and high so far today.
3.7M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:03 PM ET.
Jan 20 projected
Projected for 2027-01-20 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$121.40–$153.35
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own PLD if Prologis leverages a scarce, globally dispersed logistics real‑estate footprint, long leases and scale to convert durable tenant demand into predictable cash flow and repeatable capital recycling, compounding NAV and shareholder returns.

PLD price history

Latest price$130.03Today−$0.07 (-0.05%)
PLD -0.81%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Prologis’s scarce, well‑located logistics footprint and long lease profile will sustain occupancy and allow rent growth/pricing power, so reported revenue continues to grow even in modest downturns.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Revenue (GAAP, annual) rose from $4.76B in 2021 to $8.79B in 2025, showing multi‑year top‑line expansion (fields: revenue 2021–2025). If true, revenue resilience preserves cash available for dividends and development; if false, rent cuts and vacancy will pressure cash flow, NAV and the dividend.

    Watch: A large, sustained slowdown in e‑commerce or a reversal of inventories-to-sales that reduces demand for modern distribution space in Prologis’s core markets.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue (GAAP, annual) rose from $4.76B in 2021 to $8.79B in 2025, showing multi‑year top‑line expansion (fields: revenue 2021–2025).

    Open source ↗
  • Prologis reliably converts rental revenue into operating cash flow at scale, and that OCF funds dividends, development and capital recycling without requiring excess external financing.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Operating cash flow (annual) increased from $4.13B in 2021 to $5.01B in 2025 and remained roughly stable year‑to‑year (fields: operating_cash_flow 2021–2025). Stable, growing OCF lets the company self‑fund development and return cash to shareholders; a drop in OCF forces external financing, slows development and pressures dividends.

    Watch: A material increase in tenant delinquencies or lease restructuring that reduces cash receipts.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow (annual) increased from $4.13B in 2021 to $5.01B in 2025 and remained roughly stable year‑to‑year (fields: operating_cash_flow.

    Open source ↗
  • Prologis’s growing asset base and scale enable disciplined capital recycling (sell high, build where rents justify higher returns), which compounds NAV and supports EPS growth over time.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Total assets (instant) expanded from ~$87.9B at 2022 year‑end to ~$98.7B at 2025 year‑end, showing balance‑sheet growth and activity (fields: assets 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025). If capital recycling stays accretive, NAV per share and EPS should rise; if the company cannot sell assets at attractive prices or buy/develop profitably, NAV and EPS growth stall.

    Watch: A public market selloff that materially compresses cap rates, making dispositions unattractive or loss‑making and halting capital recycling.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Total assets (instant) expanded from ~$87.9B at 2022 year‑end to ~$98.7B at 2025 year‑end, showing balance‑sheet growth and activity (fields.

    Open source ↗
  • Property operating leverage and long‑dated leases make operating income (GAAP) relatively resilient to short revenue swings, preserving operating margins.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Operating income (annual) rose from $3.21B in 2021 to $4.42B in 2024 and remained near $4.36B in 2025 despite revenue growth — indicating operating income tracked revenue with limited downside (fields: operating_income 2021–2025). Resilient operating income sustains earnings and dividend capacity; if operating income proves volatile it signals underlying rent or occupancy weakness.

    Watch: Rising property operating expenses (taxes, utilities, insurance, wages) or materially higher vacancy forcing a drop in NOI and operating income.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating income (annual) rose from $3.21B in 2021 to $4.42B in 2024 and remained near $4.36B in 2025 despite revenue.

    Open source ↗
  • Reported diluted EPS is materially affected by portfolio valuation, transaction timing and capital allocation; therefore per‑share returns depend on management’s ability to execute accretive transactions and buybacks, not just rental operations.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Diluted EPS (annual) moved from $3.94 in 2021 to $4.25 in 2022, $3.29 in 2023, $4.01 in 2024 and $3.56 in 2025 — illustrating volatility in EPS despite generally rising assets and cash flows (fields: eps_diluted 2021–2025). Even with stable rental cash flow, EPS can swing with valuation gains/losses and share count changes; owners must monitor capital allocation to assess realized shareholder returns.

    Watch: Large, repeated negative valuation adjustments or impairment charges that depress EPS independent of cash operations.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Diluted EPS (annual) moved from $3.94 in 2021 to $4.25 in 2022, $3.29 in 2023, $4.01 in 2024 and $3.56.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Prologis’s scarce, well‑located logistics footprint and long lease profile will sustain occupancy and allow rent growth/pricing power, so reported revenue continues to grow even in modest downturns. If true, revenue resilience preserves cash available for dividends and development; if false, rent cuts and vacancy will pressure cash flow, NAV and the dividend.

Prologis reliably converts rental revenue into operating cash flow at scale, and that OCF funds dividends, development and capital recycling without requiring excess external financing. Stable, growing OCF lets the company self‑fund development and return cash to shareholders; a drop in OCF forces external financing, slows development and pressures dividends.

Prologis’s growing asset base and scale enable disciplined capital recycling (sell high, build where rents justify higher returns), which compounds NAV and supports EPS growth over time. If capital recycling stays accretive, NAV per share and EPS should rise; if the company cannot sell assets at attractive prices or buy/develop profitably, NAV and EPS growth stall.

Property operating leverage and long‑dated leases make operating income (GAAP) relatively resilient to short revenue swings, preserving operating margins. Resilient operating income sustains earnings and dividend capacity; if operating income proves volatile it signals underlying rent or occupancy weakness.

Reported diluted EPS is materially affected by portfolio valuation, transaction timing and capital allocation; therefore per‑share returns depend on management’s ability to execute accretive transactions and buybacks, not just rental operations. Even with stable rental cash flow, EPS can swing with valuation gains/losses and share count changes; owners must monitor capital allocation to assess realized shareholder returns.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Prologis leverages a scarce, globally dispersed logistics real‑estate footprint, long leases and scale to convert durable tenant demand into predictable cash flow and repeatable capital recycling, compounding NAV and shareholder returns.

Evidence assessed Oct 14, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Prologis

Where the evidence on Prologis stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 14, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Prologis’s scarce, well‑located logistics footprint and long lease profile will sustain occupancy and allow rent growth/pricing power, so reported revenue continues to grow even in modest downturns.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Prologis reliably converts rental revenue into operating cash flow at scale, and that OCF funds dividends, development and capital recycling without requiring excess external financing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Prologis’s growing asset base and scale enable disciplined capital recycling (sell high, build where rents justify higher returns), which compounds NAV and supports EPS growth over time.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Property operating leverage and long‑dated leases make operating income (GAAP) relatively resilient to short revenue swings, preserving operating margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Reported diluted EPS is materially affected by portfolio valuation, transaction timing and capital allocation; therefore per‑share returns depend on management’s ability to execute accretive transactions and buybacks, not just rental operations.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A large, sustained slowdown in e‑commerce or a reversal of inventories-to-sales that reduces demand for modern distribution space in Prologis’s core markets.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A material increase in tenant delinquencies or lease restructuring that reduces cash receipts.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A public market selloff that materially compresses cap rates, making dispositions unattractive or loss‑making and halting capital recycling.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Prologis

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Prologis’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Prologis filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Prologis filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Prologis filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-04: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A large, sustained slowdown in e‑commerce or a reversal of inventories-to-sales that reduces demand for modern distribution space in Prologis’s core markets.
  • A material increase in tenant delinquencies or lease restructuring that reduces cash receipts.
  • A public market selloff that materially compresses cap rates, making dispositions unattractive or loss‑making and halting capital recycling.
  • Rising property operating expenses (taxes, utilities, insurance, wages) or materially higher vacancy forcing a drop in NOI and operating income.
  • Large, repeated negative valuation adjustments or impairment charges that depress EPS independent of cash operations.

PLD news

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Financial statements

PLD income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

PLD: quick answers

When does Prologis (PLD) report earnings next?
Prologis's next results are projected for January 20, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 15, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is PLD's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 16.9M PLD shares were sold short, down 3.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. PLD short interest history
Have members of Congress traded PLD?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in PLD by 1 filer: 2 purchases and 0 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed PLD trade
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