Penumbra

PENNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$321.72
+$0.26 (+0.08%)Today 1M +0.64%
After hours$321.85+0.04%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$321.46
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$320.28–$322.24
Regular-session low and high so far today.
320.2K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$274.20–$362.41
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own PEN if its differentiated thrombectomy and embolization devices keep gaining physician adoption while FY2025’s margin step proves structural rather than temporary.

PEN price history

Latest price$321.72Today+$0.26 (+0.08%)
PEN +0.49%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Physicians and hospitals continue to adopt Penumbra’s minimally invasive thrombectomy and embolization tools because they solve time-sensitive vascular problems with specialized device performance, so procedure growth keeps translating into consumable device demand.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $847.1 million in FY2022 to $1.404 billion in FY2025. If adoption remains intact, Penumbra can keep compounding from procedure volume; if physicians migrate to rival platforms, revenue growth would weaken before fixed costs adjust.

    Watch: Stryker, Medtronic or Johnson & Johnson/Cerenovus publishes or commercializes neurovascular data that causes stroke centers to standardize away from Penumbra devices.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $847.1 million in FY2022 to $1.404 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Penumbra’s devices retain enough clinical differentiation and manufacturing quality that hospitals do not treat them as commodity catheters, preserving pricing and mix despite medtech competition.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit rose from $535.2 million in FY2022 to $942.4 million in FY2025. Gross margin is the clearest proof that growth is not being bought through discounting; if differentiation fades, revenue can grow while value creation deteriorates.

    Watch: Hospital group purchasing organizations or integrated delivery networks force Penumbra into broad price concessions for thrombectomy and embolization devices.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit rose from $535.2 million in FY2022 to $942.4 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Penumbra’s commercial infrastructure, R&D base and manufacturing footprint are becoming scalable enough that incremental procedure-driven sales can produce materially more GAAP operating income rather than being consumed by expenses.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating income increased to $189.2 million in FY2025 from $9.3 million in FY2024. This determines whether Penumbra is merely a growth medical-device company or a compounding earnings business.

    Watch: Penumbra must materially expand its sales force or clinical-support infrastructure just to defend existing accounts against larger medtech competitors.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income increased to $189.2 million in FY2025 from $9.3 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Penumbra can fund product innovation, clinical programs, inventory and manufacturing needs internally, reducing the need for dilutive equity or balance-sheet risk while it scales.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $55.7 million in FY2022 to positive $238.7 million in FY2025. Self-funded growth lets more of the operating improvement accrue to shareholders; external funding needs would dilute or de-risk the upside.

    Watch: A major recall, litigation settlement or regulatory remediation program consumes cash before revenue is visibly impaired.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $55.7 million in FY2022 to positive $238.7 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Management must keep growth investment disciplined enough that Penumbra’s clinical and commercial gains show up in GAAP diluted EPS, not just in revenue scale.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS improved from negative $0.05 in FY2022 to $4.52 in FY2025. Shareholders ultimately own per-share earnings power; if growth requires excessive spending, stock compensation or acquisitions, business momentum may not translate into per-share value.

    Watch: Stock-based compensation or acquisition-related share issuance materially offsets operating income growth.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS improved from negative $0.05 in FY2022 to $4.52 in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Physicians and hospitals continue to adopt Penumbra’s minimally invasive thrombectomy and embolization tools because they solve time-sensitive vascular problems with specialized device performance, so procedure growth keeps translating into consumable device demand. If adoption remains intact, Penumbra can keep compounding from procedure volume; if physicians migrate to rival platforms, revenue growth would weaken before fixed costs adjust.

Penumbra’s devices retain enough clinical differentiation and manufacturing quality that hospitals do not treat them as commodity catheters, preserving pricing and mix despite medtech competition. Gross margin is the clearest proof that growth is not being bought through discounting; if differentiation fades, revenue can grow while value creation deteriorates.

Penumbra’s commercial infrastructure, R&D base and manufacturing footprint are becoming scalable enough that incremental procedure-driven sales can produce materially more GAAP operating income rather than being consumed by expenses. This determines whether Penumbra is merely a growth medical-device company or a compounding earnings business.

Penumbra can fund product innovation, clinical programs, inventory and manufacturing needs internally, reducing the need for dilutive equity or balance-sheet risk while it scales. Self-funded growth lets more of the operating improvement accrue to shareholders; external funding needs would dilute or de-risk the upside.

Management must keep growth investment disciplined enough that Penumbra’s clinical and commercial gains show up in GAAP diluted EPS, not just in revenue scale. Shareholders ultimately own per-share earnings power; if growth requires excessive spending, stock compensation or acquisitions, business momentum may not translate into per-share value.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its differentiated thrombectomy and embolization devices keep gaining physician adoption while FY2025’s margin step proves structural rather than temporary.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Penumbra

Where the evidence on Penumbra stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Physicians and hospitals continue to adopt Penumbra’s minimally invasive thrombectomy and embolization tools because they solve time-sensitive vascular problems with specialized device performance, so procedure growth keeps translating into consumable device demand.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Penumbra’s devices retain enough clinical differentiation and manufacturing quality that hospitals do not treat them as commodity catheters, preserving pricing and mix despite medtech competition.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Penumbra’s commercial infrastructure, R&D base and manufacturing footprint are becoming scalable enough that incremental procedure-driven sales can produce materially more GAAP operating income rather than being consumed by expenses.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Penumbra can fund product innovation, clinical programs, inventory and manufacturing needs internally, reducing the need for dilutive equity or balance-sheet risk while it scales.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management must keep growth investment disciplined enough that Penumbra’s clinical and commercial gains show up in GAAP diluted EPS, not just in revenue scale.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Stryker, Medtronic or Johnson & Johnson/Cerenovus publishes or commercializes neurovascular data that causes stroke centers to standardize away from Penumbra devices.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Hospital group purchasing organizations or integrated delivery networks force Penumbra into broad price concessions for thrombectomy and embolization devices.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Penumbra must materially expand its sales force or clinical-support infrastructure just to defend existing accounts against larger medtech competitors.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Penumbra

Loading the break-condition record for Penumbra.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Penumbra filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Penumbra filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Stryker, Medtronic or Johnson & Johnson/Cerenovus publishes or commercializes neurovascular data that causes stroke centers to standardize away from Penumbra devices.
  • Hospital group purchasing organizations or integrated delivery networks force Penumbra into broad price concessions for thrombectomy and embolization devices.
  • Penumbra must materially expand its sales force or clinical-support infrastructure just to defend existing accounts against larger medtech competitors.
  • A major recall, litigation settlement or regulatory remediation program consumes cash before revenue is visibly impaired.
  • Stock-based compensation or acquisition-related share issuance materially offsets operating income growth.

PEN news

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Financial statements

PEN income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

PEN: quick answers

Have members of Congress traded PEN?
3 trades in PEN have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed PEN trade
Which well-known investors own PEN?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported PEN shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

PEN in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported PEN shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.00%$499K−84.3%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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