PEDEVCO

PEDNYSE AmericanUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$13.62
+$0.28 (+2.10%)Today 1M −0.97%
After hours$13.620.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$13.34
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$13.57–$14.06
Regular-session low and high so far today.
8.1K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Nov 16 projected
Projected for 2026-11-16 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$8.64–$18.89
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own PED if its enlarged 2025 asset base proves to be economically developable, not merely bigger.

PED price history

Latest price$13.62Today+$0.28 (+2.10%)
PED +1.04%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • PED’s enlarged oil-and-gas asset base must contain economically developable reserves whose well productivity justifies the capital deployed; otherwise size will not translate into owner value.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP total assets increased from $128.349 million at FY2024 year-end to $375.869 million at FY2025 year-end, showing a materially larger operating asset base. If the assets are economic, PED can grow cash flow from a larger reserve base; if not, the company faces impairments, weak returns, and possible dilution.

    Watch: Independent reserve reports or management updates show negative reserve revisions on acquired or developed properties.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP total assets increased from $128.349 million at FY2024 year-end to $375.869 million at FY2025 year-end, showing a materially larger.

    Open source ↗
  • PED’s operating model must keep lease operating, depletion, G&A, and service costs low enough for commodity-price exposure to produce full-cycle operating profit, not just revenue growth.WeakeningMateriality: High

    PED generated positive GAAP annual operating income in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024, including $4.717 million in FY2024. If margins recover, incremental production can create equity value; if costs absorb the revenue, PED remains a commodity producer without economic leverage.

    Watch: Oil or natural gas prices fall, or local basis differentials widen, before PED has hedges or cost reductions in place.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    PED generated positive GAAP annual operating income in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024, including $4.717 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • PED’s producing wells must generate enough operating cash flow to fund maintenance and selective development, because oil-and-gas decline curves can otherwise turn growth into a capital treadmill.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow remained positive at $10.758 million in FY2025. Sustained cash conversion gives PED control over timing and capital allocation; weak conversion makes growth dependent on lenders or shareholders.

    Watch: Base production declines accelerate faster than new drilling can replace it.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow remained positive at $10.758 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • PED must keep enough balance-sheet flexibility to drill through commodity cycles without being forced into distressed asset sales, covenant-driven retrenchment, or dilutive equity issuance.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP stockholders' equity of $207.364 million at FY2025 year-end exceeded GAAP liabilities of $168.505 million. A weak balance sheet can transfer upside from common shareholders to lenders or new capital providers just as assets begin to perform.

    Watch: Reserve-based lenders reduce borrowing availability after lower commodity prices or reserve downgrades.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP stockholders' equity of $207.364 million at FY2025 year-end exceeded GAAP liabilities of $168.505 million.

    Open source ↗
  • Management must prioritize per-share returns over simply expanding acreage, reserves, or production, because acquisitions and drilling only help owners if returns exceed the cost of capital after depletion and dilution.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS was positive in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024, including $2.76 in FY2024. The common stock benefits only if growth increases per-share value; otherwise larger assets can coexist with lower earnings power.

    Watch: Stock-financed acquisitions or compensation materially dilute existing holders without clear accretion.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS was positive in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024, including $2.76 in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

PED’s enlarged oil-and-gas asset base must contain economically developable reserves whose well productivity justifies the capital deployed; otherwise size will not translate into owner value. If the assets are economic, PED can grow cash flow from a larger reserve base; if not, the company faces impairments, weak returns, and possible dilution.

PED’s operating model must keep lease operating, depletion, G&A, and service costs low enough for commodity-price exposure to produce full-cycle operating profit, not just revenue growth. If margins recover, incremental production can create equity value; if costs absorb the revenue, PED remains a commodity producer without economic leverage.

PED’s producing wells must generate enough operating cash flow to fund maintenance and selective development, because oil-and-gas decline curves can otherwise turn growth into a capital treadmill. Sustained cash conversion gives PED control over timing and capital allocation; weak conversion makes growth dependent on lenders or shareholders.

PED must keep enough balance-sheet flexibility to drill through commodity cycles without being forced into distressed asset sales, covenant-driven retrenchment, or dilutive equity issuance. A weak balance sheet can transfer upside from common shareholders to lenders or new capital providers just as assets begin to perform.

Management must prioritize per-share returns over simply expanding acreage, reserves, or production, because acquisitions and drilling only help owners if returns exceed the cost of capital after depletion and dilution. The common stock benefits only if growth increases per-share value; otherwise larger assets can coexist with lower earnings power.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its enlarged 2025 asset base proves to be economically developable, not merely bigger.

Evidence assessed Nov 8, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Pedevco

Where the evidence on Pedevco disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 holding and 3 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • PED’s enlarged oil-and-gas asset base must contain economically developable reserves whose well productivity justifies the capital deployed; otherwise size will not translate into owner value.

    sec.gov ↗

  • PED’s producing wells must generate enough operating cash flow to fund maintenance and selective development, because oil-and-gas decline curves can otherwise turn growth into a capital treadmill.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • PED’s operating model must keep lease operating, depletion, G&A, and service costs low enough for commodity-price exposure to produce full-cycle operating profit, not just revenue growth.

    sec.gov ↗

  • PED must keep enough balance-sheet flexibility to drill through commodity cycles without being forced into distressed asset sales, covenant-driven retrenchment, or dilutive equity issuance.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management must prioritize per-share returns over simply expanding acreage, reserves, or production, because acquisitions and drilling only help owners if returns exceed the cost of capital after depletion and dilution.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Pedevco’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Pedevco, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Pedevco.

peers+15%-20%-2%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -2% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -20%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Pedevco filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-21: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Pedevco filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-16: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Pedevco filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-28: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Independent reserve reports or management updates show negative reserve revisions on acquired or developed properties.
  • Oil or natural gas prices fall, or local basis differentials widen, before PED has hedges or cost reductions in place.
  • Base production declines accelerate faster than new drilling can replace it.
  • Reserve-based lenders reduce borrowing availability after lower commodity prices or reserve downgrades.
  • Stock-financed acquisitions or compensation materially dilute existing holders without clear accretion.

PED news

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Financial statements

PED income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

PED: quick answers

When does Pedevco (PED) report earnings next?
Pedevco's next results are projected for November 16, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 13, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is PED's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 60,725 PED shares were sold short, up 7.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. PED short interest history
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