Puma Biotechnology
PBYINASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $8.14 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $8.02–$8.31 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 397.8K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 25 projected Projected for 2027-02-25 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $4.76–$11.50 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own PBYI if Nerlynx remains clinically relevant long enough for high gross margins and lean spending to fund pipeline optionality without dilution.
PBYI price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Nerlynx’s role in HER2-positive breast cancer remains clinically defensible enough that prescriptions erode slowly rather than disappear as newer HER2 agents expand.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue was $228.4 million in FY2025, $230.5 million in FY2024, and $228.0 million in FY2022, showing a mature but not collapsing franchise. If this holds, Puma has time to harvest cash; if it breaks, the company loses the revenue base that funds everything else.
Watch: NCCN or major oncology guidelines shift patient flow toward competing HER2 regimens such as Enhertu or Tukysa and away from neratinib-based treatment.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue was $228.4 million in FY2025, $230.5 million in FY2024, and $228.0 million in FY2022, showing a mature.
Open source ↗The franchise retains specialty-oncology pricing and access, so stable demand converts into high gross profit rather than being absorbed by rebates, royalties, or manufacturing cost inflation.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Estimated GAAP gross profit was $170.2 million in FY2025 on $228.4 million of GAAP revenue, implying a gross margin of about 74.5%. High gross profit is what makes a flat revenue base economically valuable; margin compression would turn stability into a poor cash engine.
Watch: Payers impose tougher prior authorization, step edits, or rebate demands because competing HER2 therapies gain preference.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Estimated GAAP gross profit was $170.2 million in FY2025 on $228.4 million of GAAP revenue, implying a gross margin of.
Open source ↗Puma can be run as a lean commercial oncology platform because a focused sales effort and selective development spending are sufficient to support the mature franchise.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP operating income rose to $37.3 million in FY2025 from $23.7 million in FY2022 while GAAP revenue was essentially flat over the same period. Cost discipline determines whether Puma’s revenue base becomes owner earnings or is consumed by overhead and R&D.
Watch: Management commits to a large late-stage development program that materially expands R&D spend before a clear financing path exists.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP operating income rose to $37.3 million in FY2025 from $23.7 million in FY2022 while GAAP revenue was essentially flat.
Open source ↗Commercial cash generation is sufficient to delever and fund optionality without relying on equity markets, provided development ambitions stay sized to the cash-harvest franchise.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP operating cash flow was positive in FY2023, FY2024, and FY2025 after being negative in FY2022. Self-funding protects per-share value; if cash needs outrun the franchise, dilution or financial risk becomes the central issue.
Watch: A pivotal trial or business-development deal requires upfront spending that exceeds internally generated cash.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP operating cash flow was positive in FY2023, FY2024, and FY2025 after being negative in FY2022.
Open source ↗Because the core product appears mature, meaningful per-share upside needs either successful pipeline or business-development execution, or unusually disciplined cash return; the existing franchise alone is unlikely to create a growth story.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual revenue was $235.6 million in FY2023, $230.5 million in FY2024, and $228.4 million in FY2025, showing no sustained top-line growth. This separates a profitable company from an attractive stock: without a next leg, valuation may remain anchored to a declining-annuity view.
Watch: A new clinical indication, guideline expansion, or materially improved commercial positioning restarts organic growth in the existing product.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue was $235.6 million in FY2023, $230.5 million in FY2024, and $228.4 million in FY2025, showing no sustained.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Nerlynx’s role in HER2-positive breast cancer remains clinically defensible enough that prescriptions erode slowly rather than disappear as newer HER2 agents expand. If this holds, Puma has time to harvest cash; if it breaks, the company loses the revenue base that funds everything else.
The franchise retains specialty-oncology pricing and access, so stable demand converts into high gross profit rather than being absorbed by rebates, royalties, or manufacturing cost inflation. High gross profit is what makes a flat revenue base economically valuable; margin compression would turn stability into a poor cash engine.
Puma can be run as a lean commercial oncology platform because a focused sales effort and selective development spending are sufficient to support the mature franchise. Cost discipline determines whether Puma’s revenue base becomes owner earnings or is consumed by overhead and R&D.
Commercial cash generation is sufficient to delever and fund optionality without relying on equity markets, provided development ambitions stay sized to the cash-harvest franchise. Self-funding protects per-share value; if cash needs outrun the franchise, dilution or financial risk becomes the central issue.
Because the core product appears mature, meaningful per-share upside needs either successful pipeline or business-development execution, or unusually disciplined cash return; the existing franchise alone is unlikely to create a growth story. This separates a profitable company from an attractive stock: without a next leg, valuation may remain anchored to a declining-annuity view.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Nerlynx remains clinically relevant long enough for high gross margins and lean spending to fund pipeline optionality without dilution.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Puma Biotechnology
Where the evidence on Puma Biotechnology stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Nerlynx’s role in HER2-positive breast cancer remains clinically defensible enough that prescriptions erode slowly rather than disappear as newer HER2 agents expand.
The franchise retains specialty-oncology pricing and access, so stable demand converts into high gross profit rather than being absorbed by rebates, royalties, or manufacturing cost inflation.
Puma can be run as a lean commercial oncology platform because a focused sales effort and selective development spending are sufficient to support the mature franchise.
Commercial cash generation is sufficient to delever and fund optionality without relying on equity markets, provided development ambitions stay sized to the cash-harvest franchise.
Because the core product appears mature, meaningful per-share upside needs either successful pipeline or business-development execution, or unusually disciplined cash return; the existing franchise alone is unlikely to create a growth story.
Bear case: what would count against it
NCCN or major oncology guidelines shift patient flow toward competing HER2 regimens such as Enhertu or Tukysa and away from neratinib-based treatment.
Payers impose tougher prior authorization, step edits, or rebate demands because competing HER2 therapies gain preference.
Management commits to a large late-stage development program that materially expands R&D spend before a clear financing path exists.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Puma Biotechnology
No break has crossed Puma Biotechnology’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Puma Biotechnology’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Operating-margin compression, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 2,641 times before. Those stocks trailed the market by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 36% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Puma Biotechnology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Puma Biotechnology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Puma Biotechnology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-07: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- NCCN or major oncology guidelines shift patient flow toward competing HER2 regimens such as Enhertu or Tukysa and away from neratinib-based treatment.
- Payers impose tougher prior authorization, step edits, or rebate demands because competing HER2 therapies gain preference.
- Management commits to a large late-stage development program that materially expands R&D spend before a clear financing path exists.
- A pivotal trial or business-development deal requires upfront spending that exceeds internally generated cash.
- A new clinical indication, guideline expansion, or materially improved commercial positioning restarts organic growth in the existing product.
PBYI news
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Financial statements
PBYI income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
PBYI: quick answers
- When does Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) report earnings next?
- Puma Biotechnology's next results are projected for February 25, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is PBYI's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.3M PBYI shares were sold short, 8.31% of its shares outstanding, down 5.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 12 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. PBYI short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded PBYI?
- 2 trades in PBYI have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed PBYI trade