PBF Energy
PBFNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $65.91 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $67.15–$69.80 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.1M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 11 projected Projected for 2027-02-11 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $25.62–$92.46 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own PBF if scarce U.S. refining capacity again earns healthy product spreads before liquidity and compliance costs absorb the equity upside.
PBF price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Because PBF is an independent supplier of unbranded refined products, its economics will remain dominated by crude-to-product spreads rather than customer lock-in or brand pricing power.StrengtheningMateriality: High
The profile describes PBF as one of the largest independent petroleum refiners and suppliers of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and other petroleum products. Owners should value PBF on normalized cycle earnings, not treat peak profits as durable franchise earnings.
Watch: PBF signs long-term premium offtake or take-or-pay contracts that materially stabilize margins through a weak refining cycle.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The profile describes PBF as one of the largest independent petroleum refiners and suppliers of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil.
Open source ↗PBF’s refinery asset base should regain earnings power if U.S. product markets tighten, because existing refining capacity becomes valuable when demand exceeds available low-cost supply.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating_income was $4.1532 billion in FY2022 and $2.9515 billion in FY2023, showing the asset base can generate large profits in favorable refining markets. If the downturn is cyclical, the equity can re-rate on normalized earnings; if it is structural, book value and peak-cycle history are less useful anchors.
Watch: New or expanded low-cost refining capacity in export markets such as the Middle East or Asia persistently supplies PBF’s product markets at lower delivered cost.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating_income was $4.1532 billion in FY2022 and $2.9515 billion in FY2023, showing the asset base can generate large.
Open source ↗Operational reliability and turnaround execution are the controllable levers that determine whether PBF captures short refining-margin windows or loses them to outages and cost overruns.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating_income moved from negative $699.0 million in FY2024 to negative $54.3 million in FY2025, suggesting some improvement in conversion of revenue into operating results. In a spread business, missing strong margin windows can destroy the year’s profit even if the macro setup improves.
Watch: Unplanned refinery outages, fires, maintenance delays or poor turnaround execution prevent PBF from running at high utilization during favorable crack-spread periods.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating_income moved from negative $699.0 million in FY2024 to negative $54.3 million in FY2025, suggesting some improvement in.
Open source ↗PBF must preserve enough liquidity to wait out weak refining markets without being forced into value-destructive financing or asset sales.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
Cash was $527.9 million at FY2025 year-end, so the company still had a cash buffer. The refining option is only valuable to equity holders if the company survives the trough on acceptable terms.
Watch: A prolonged period of depressed crack spreads and negative working-capital movements consumes cash before margins recover.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash was $527.9 million at FY2025 year-end, so the company still had a cash buffer.
Open source ↗For PBF to create per-share value rather than merely cycle with refining margins, upcycle cash generation must more than offset downcycle losses, working capital and sustaining obligations.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating_cash_flow was $4.7720 billion in FY2022 and $1.3385 billion in FY2023, showing the business can produce substantial cash in strong markets. If cash generated in good years is repeatedly consumed in bad years, the stock may be a trade on spreads rather than a compounding investment.
Watch: Sustaining capital, environmental compliance, RIN costs or turnaround spending absorb most cash generated in the next favorable refining cycle.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating_cash_flow was $4.7720 billion in FY2022 and $1.3385 billion in FY2023, showing the business can produce substantial cash.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Because PBF is an independent supplier of unbranded refined products, its economics will remain dominated by crude-to-product spreads rather than customer lock-in or brand pricing power. Owners should value PBF on normalized cycle earnings, not treat peak profits as durable franchise earnings.
PBF’s refinery asset base should regain earnings power if U.S. product markets tighten, because existing refining capacity becomes valuable when demand exceeds available low-cost supply. If the downturn is cyclical, the equity can re-rate on normalized earnings; if it is structural, book value and peak-cycle history are less useful anchors.
Operational reliability and turnaround execution are the controllable levers that determine whether PBF captures short refining-margin windows or loses them to outages and cost overruns. In a spread business, missing strong margin windows can destroy the year’s profit even if the macro setup improves.
PBF must preserve enough liquidity to wait out weak refining markets without being forced into value-destructive financing or asset sales. The refining option is only valuable to equity holders if the company survives the trough on acceptable terms.
For PBF to create per-share value rather than merely cycle with refining margins, upcycle cash generation must more than offset downcycle losses, working capital and sustaining obligations. If cash generated in good years is repeatedly consumed in bad years, the stock may be a trade on spreads rather than a compounding investment.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
scarce U.S. refining capacity again earns healthy product spreads before liquidity and compliance costs absorb the equity upside.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for PBF Energy
Where the evidence on PBF Energy disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 2 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Because PBF is an independent supplier of unbranded refined products, its economics will remain dominated by crude-to-product spreads rather than customer lock-in or brand pricing power.
PBF’s refinery asset base should regain earnings power if U.S. product markets tighten, because existing refining capacity becomes valuable when demand exceeds available low-cost supply.
Operational reliability and turnaround execution are the controllable levers that determine whether PBF captures short refining-margin windows or loses them to outages and cost overruns.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
PBF must preserve enough liquidity to wait out weak refining markets without being forced into value-destructive financing or asset sales.
For PBF to create per-share value rather than merely cycle with refining margins, upcycle cash generation must more than offset downcycle losses, working capital and sustaining obligations.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in PBF Energy’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on PBF Energy, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for PBF Energy.
- Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on PBF Energy at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedOther material event.
PBF Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-14: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
PBF Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-01: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
PBF Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-17: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- PBF signs long-term premium offtake or take-or-pay contracts that materially stabilize margins through a weak refining cycle.
- New or expanded low-cost refining capacity in export markets such as the Middle East or Asia persistently supplies PBF’s product markets at lower delivered cost.
- Unplanned refinery outages, fires, maintenance delays or poor turnaround execution prevent PBF from running at high utilization during favorable crack-spread periods.
- A prolonged period of depressed crack spreads and negative working-capital movements consumes cash before margins recover.
- Sustaining capital, environmental compliance, RIN costs or turnaround spending absorb most cash generated in the next favorable refining cycle.
PBF news
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Financial statements
PBF income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
PBF: quick answers
- When does PBF Energy (PBF) report earnings next?
- PBF Energy's next results are projected for February 11, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is PBF's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 11.1M PBF shares were sold short, 9.14% of its shares outstanding, down 1.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. PBF short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded PBF?
- 13 trades in PBF have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed PBF trade
- Which well-known investors own PBF?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported PBF shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
PBF in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported PBF shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $1.6M | +273.6% | Q2 2026 |