Prosperity Bancshares
PBNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $73.15 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $72.27–$73.31 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 694.1K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 27 projected Projected for 2027-01-27 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $63.20–$77.20 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own PB if its local deposit franchise and conservative credit culture keep funding, credit, and capital costs lower than the market expects.
PB price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Prosperity’s local relationship-bank model should keep enough sticky core funding that it can protect spread revenue without needing aggressive balance-sheet growth.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP-derived annual revenue rose from $1.192 billion in FY2024 to $1.250 billion in FY2025 even as annual period-end assets declined from $39.567 billion to $38.463 billion. If funding remains durable, modest asset growth can still support earnings; if deposits reprice or leave, net interest income and valuation power deteriorate quickly.
Watch: Large banks, online banks, and money-market funds pull Texas commercial and consumer deposits away by offering materially higher rates or better digital cash-management products.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP-derived annual revenue rose from $1.192 billion in FY2024 to $1.250 billion in FY2025 even as annual period-end assets declined.
Open source ↗Prosperity’s value creation depends on conservative credit and balance-sheet management preserving capital through the Texas cycle rather than chasing loan growth.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $7.438 billion at FY2024 year-end to $7.616 billion at FY2025 year-end. If credit discipline holds, retained earnings can compound book value; if underwriting cracks, loan losses can erase years of spread income.
Watch: A Texas commercial real estate downturn creates charge-offs and criticized loans before revenue shows the damage.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $7.438 billion at FY2024 year-end to $7.616 billion at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗Prosperity’s branch-and-associate operating model must remain efficient enough that relationship banking converts spread revenue into earnings rather than being consumed by labor, technology, and compliance costs.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual net income rose from $479.386 million in FY2024 to $542.843 million in FY2025, faster than GAAP-derived annual revenue growth over the same period. If the cost base stays controlled, earnings can rise faster than revenue; if the model needs heavy spending to compete, returns fall even with stable customers.
Watch: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and other large banks use technology and treasury platforms to win Prosperity’s commercial relationships, forcing Prosperity to spend more to keep clients.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual net income rose from $479.386 million in FY2024 to $542.843 million in FY2025, faster than GAAP-derived annual revenue.
Open source ↗Per-share value depends on management allocating excess capital through organic growth, buybacks, dividends, or acquisitions without diluting owners for low-return growth.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $5.05 in FY2024 to $5.72 in FY2025. A bank can grow assets and still fail shareholders if acquisitions, capital raises, or retained capital earn weak returns.
Watch: Management uses stock for acquisitions at prices or credit marks that dilute tangible book value and depress future returns.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $5.05 in FY2024 to $5.72 in FY2025.
Open source ↗Prosperity’s earnings must remain cash-generative enough to fund capital growth internally rather than relying on external capital or balance-sheet leverage.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $549.513 million in FY2025. Self-funding protects owners in a banking downturn; weak cash conversion or liquidity stress would make capital returns and growth less dependable.
Watch: Deposit outflows force Prosperity to replace customer funding with higher-cost borrowings before reported earnings fully reflect the pressure.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $549.513 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Prosperity’s local relationship-bank model should keep enough sticky core funding that it can protect spread revenue without needing aggressive balance-sheet growth. If funding remains durable, modest asset growth can still support earnings; if deposits reprice or leave, net interest income and valuation power deteriorate quickly.
Prosperity’s value creation depends on conservative credit and balance-sheet management preserving capital through the Texas cycle rather than chasing loan growth. If credit discipline holds, retained earnings can compound book value; if underwriting cracks, loan losses can erase years of spread income.
Prosperity’s branch-and-associate operating model must remain efficient enough that relationship banking converts spread revenue into earnings rather than being consumed by labor, technology, and compliance costs. If the cost base stays controlled, earnings can rise faster than revenue; if the model needs heavy spending to compete, returns fall even with stable customers.
Per-share value depends on management allocating excess capital through organic growth, buybacks, dividends, or acquisitions without diluting owners for low-return growth. A bank can grow assets and still fail shareholders if acquisitions, capital raises, or retained capital earn weak returns.
Prosperity’s earnings must remain cash-generative enough to fund capital growth internally rather than relying on external capital or balance-sheet leverage. Self-funding protects owners in a banking downturn; weak cash conversion or liquidity stress would make capital returns and growth less dependable.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its local deposit franchise and conservative credit culture keep funding, credit, and capital costs lower than the market expects.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Prosperity Bancshares
Where the evidence on Prosperity Bancshares stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 17, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Prosperity’s local relationship-bank model should keep enough sticky core funding that it can protect spread revenue without needing aggressive balance-sheet growth.
Prosperity’s value creation depends on conservative credit and balance-sheet management preserving capital through the Texas cycle rather than chasing loan growth.
Prosperity’s branch-and-associate operating model must remain efficient enough that relationship banking converts spread revenue into earnings rather than being consumed by labor, technology, and compliance costs.
Per-share value depends on management allocating excess capital through organic growth, buybacks, dividends, or acquisitions without diluting owners for low-return growth.
Prosperity’s earnings must remain cash-generative enough to fund capital growth internally rather than relying on external capital or balance-sheet leverage.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large banks, online banks, and money-market funds pull Texas commercial and consumer deposits away by offering materially higher rates or better digital cash-management products.
A Texas commercial real estate downturn creates charge-offs and criticized loans before revenue shows the damage.
JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and other large banks use technology and treasury platforms to win Prosperity’s commercial relationships, forcing Prosperity to spend more to keep clients.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Prosperity Bancshares’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Prosperity Bancshares, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Prosperity Bancshares.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Prosperity Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedCompleted an acquisition or disposition of assets.
Prosperity Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-01: Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Prosperity Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-04-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large banks, online banks, and money-market funds pull Texas commercial and consumer deposits away by offering materially higher rates or better digital cash-management products.
- A Texas commercial real estate downturn creates charge-offs and criticized loans before revenue shows the damage.
- JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and other large banks use technology and treasury platforms to win Prosperity’s commercial relationships, forcing Prosperity to spend more to keep clients.
- Management uses stock for acquisitions at prices or credit marks that dilute tangible book value and depress future returns.
- Deposit outflows force Prosperity to replace customer funding with higher-cost borrowings before reported earnings fully reflect the pressure.
PB news
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Financial statements
PB income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
PB: quick answers
- When does Prosperity Bancshares (PB) report earnings next?
- Prosperity Bancshares's next results are projected for January 27, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is PB's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.6M PB shares were sold short, 3.86% of its shares outstanding, up 4.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. PB short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded PB?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in PB by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed PB trade
- Which well-known investors own PB?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported PB shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
PB in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported PB shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.04% | $9.1M | +184.2% | Q2 2026 |