Pan American Silver
PAASNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $39.89 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $39.32–$39.99 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.7M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $35.82–$69.99 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own PAAS if Pan American Silver can compound per-share value when commodity-driven revenue spikes convert to durable free cash flow that management uses to de-risk the balance sheet, return capital, and fund accretive mine growth or M&A.
PAAS price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Pan American’s operating profits are highly levered to realized metal prices and therefore large swings in silver/gold prices produce outsized changes in operating income and cash flow.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_income rose from 38,100,000 (FY2023) to 531,000,000 (FY2024) to 1,233,000,000 (FY2025). If true, high metal prices will keep producing large free cash flow and optionality; if false (prices drop or leverage is weaker), profits and cash will shrink quickly and the equity multiple will re-rate down.
Watch: A sustained multi-year decline in realized silver/gold prices (or loss of favorable hedges) that removes the price tailwind before cost/volume improvements arrive.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income rose from 38,100,000 (FY2023) to 531,000,000 (FY2024) to 1,233,000,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗The company’s recent step-up in operating cash flow provides real optionality: with sustained cash generation management can pay dividends/buybacks, reduce debt, or fund accretive mine expansions and M&A — converting cycles into permanent per-share gains.HoldingMateriality: High
operating_cash_flow rose from 450,200,000 (FY2023) to 724,000,000 (FY2024) to 1,333,000,000 (FY2025). Durable high cash conversion funds shareholder returns and growth without destructive dilution; if cash proves transient or is consumed by capex/M&A that destroys value, per-share returns will underperform.
Watch: Large, poorly disciplined acquisitions or sustained high sustaining/expansion capex that convert operating cash flow into negative free cash flow.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow rose from 450,200,000 (FY2023) to 724,000,000 (FY2024) to 1,333,000,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗Reported net income and EPS will remain volatile because one-off items, impairments and mark-to-market effects (and commodity swings) materially affect GAAP earnings even when underlying mining cash flow is healthy.HoldingMateriality: Medium
net_income swung from -104,900,000 (FY2023) to 113,000,000 (FY2024) to 980,000,000 (FY2025). Investors focusing on GAAP EPS may misread the business; durable shareholder returns depend more on sustained cash generation than on volatile net-income prints.
Watch: Recurring large impairment charges, unfavorable derivative valuations, or substantial one-time losses that recur and depress GAAP earnings despite cash flow.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
net_income swung from -104,900,000 (FY2023) to 113,000,000 (FY2024) to 980,000,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗The recent gross- and operating-margin expansion appears largely price-driven rather than solely from structural cost or volume improvements; if prices reverse, margins will compress quickly.HoldingMateriality: Medium
revenue rose from 2,316,100,000 (FY2023) to 2,819,000,000 (FY2024) to 3,619,000,000 (FY2025) while gross_profit rose from 296,800,000 to 549,000,000 to 1,405,000,000 — gross margin expanded from ~12.8% (FY2023) to ~19.5% (FY2024) to ~38.8% (FY2025), consistent with a price effect. If margins are cyclical the company’s high 2025 profitability won’t be repeatable and the valuation will suffer; if margins prove structural (lower AISC, higher-grade ore, successful ramps), the valuation is justified.
Watch: Public disclosure of sustained AISC reductions, successful new-mine ramps that materially increase low-cost production, or long-term forward sales/hedges that lock in favorable realized prices.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
revenue rose from 2,316,100,000 (FY2023) to 2,819,000,000 (FY2024) to 3,619,000,000 (FY2025) while gross_profit rose from 296,800,000 to 549,000,000 to 1,405,000,000.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Pan American’s operating profits are highly levered to realized metal prices and therefore large swings in silver/gold prices produce outsized changes in operating income and cash flow. If true, high metal prices will keep producing large free cash flow and optionality; if false (prices drop or leverage is weaker), profits and cash will shrink quickly and the equity multiple will re-rate down.
The company’s recent step-up in operating cash flow provides real optionality: with sustained cash generation management can pay dividends/buybacks, reduce debt, or fund accretive mine expansions and M&A — converting cycles into permanent per-share gains. Durable high cash conversion funds shareholder returns and growth without destructive dilution; if cash proves transient or is consumed by capex/M&A that destroys value, per-share returns will underperform.
Reported net income and EPS will remain volatile because one-off items, impairments and mark-to-market effects (and commodity swings) materially affect GAAP earnings even when underlying mining cash flow is healthy. Investors focusing on GAAP EPS may misread the business; durable shareholder returns depend more on sustained cash generation than on volatile net-income prints.
The recent gross- and operating-margin expansion appears largely price-driven rather than solely from structural cost or volume improvements; if prices reverse, margins will compress quickly. If margins are cyclical the company’s high 2025 profitability won’t be repeatable and the valuation will suffer; if margins prove structural (lower AISC, higher-grade ore, successful ramps), the valuation is justified.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Pan American Silver can compound per-share value when commodity-driven revenue spikes convert to durable free cash flow that management uses to de-risk the balance sheet, return capital, and fund accretive mine growth or M&A.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Pan American Silver
Where the evidence on Pan American Silver stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 31, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Pan American’s operating profits are highly levered to realized metal prices and therefore large swings in silver/gold prices produce outsized changes in operating income and cash flow.
The company’s recent step-up in operating cash flow provides real optionality: with sustained cash generation management can pay dividends/buybacks, reduce debt, or fund accretive mine expansions and M&A — converting cycles into permanent per-share gains.
Reported net income and EPS will remain volatile because one-off items, impairments and mark-to-market effects (and commodity swings) materially affect GAAP earnings even when underlying mining cash flow is healthy.
The recent gross- and operating-margin expansion appears largely price-driven rather than solely from structural cost or volume improvements; if prices reverse, margins will compress quickly.
Bear case: what would count against it
A sustained multi-year decline in realized silver/gold prices (or loss of favorable hedges) that removes the price tailwind before cost/volume improvements arrive.
Large, poorly disciplined acquisitions or sustained high sustaining/expansion capex that convert operating cash flow into negative free cash flow.
Recurring large impairment charges, unfavorable derivative valuations, or substantial one-time losses that recur and depress GAAP earnings despite cash flow.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Pan American Silver
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MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Pan American Silver filed an SEC report on 2026-10-07: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Pan American Silver filed an SEC report on 2026-09-17: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Pan American Silver filed an SEC report on 2026-08-13: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A sustained multi-year decline in realized silver/gold prices (or loss of favorable hedges) that removes the price tailwind before cost/volume improvements arrive.
- Large, poorly disciplined acquisitions or sustained high sustaining/expansion capex that convert operating cash flow into negative free cash flow.
- Recurring large impairment charges, unfavorable derivative valuations, or substantial one-time losses that recur and depress GAAP earnings despite cash flow.
- Public disclosure of sustained AISC reductions, successful new-mine ramps that materially increase low-cost production, or long-term forward sales/hedges that lock in favorable realized prices.
PAAS news
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Financial statements
PAAS income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
PAAS: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded PAAS?
- 5 trades in PAAS have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed PAAS trade
- Which well-known investors own PAAS?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported PAAS shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%; Maverick Capital, 0.0%. Fund portfolios
PAAS in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported PAAS shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.05% | $12.4M | +83.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 0.01% | $818K | −44.5% | Q2 2026 |