Blue Owl Capital
OWLNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $10.21 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $10.17–$10.44 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 14.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 4 projected Projected for 2027-02-04 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $7.95–$17.00 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own OWL if Blue Owl converts scale in permanent and long-dated private capital into predictable, cash-generative management and performance economics across Credit, Real Assets and GP Strategic Capital, and that recurring cash flow — not GAAP swings.
OWL price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Blue Owl's Permanent Capital and long-dated vehicles provide a stable, predictable base of management fees and high cash conversion that will keep operating cash flow robust even if GAAP net income swings.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Operating cash flow (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities) has grown: $949,145,000 (2023) → $999,555,000 (2024) → $1,256,032,000 (2025). If true, investors can rely on steady distributable cash and lower downside to GAAP volatility; if false, cash generation and distributions could fall and the premium multiple would be at risk.
Watch: Industry-wide investor flight from non-traded/permanent-structure products or policy/regulatory changes that restrict non-traded BDCs or Permanent Capital structures (demand shift).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities) has grown: $949,145,000 (2023) → $999,555,000 (2024) → $1,256,032,000 (2025).
Open source ↗Monetizing the $28.4 billion of AUM not yet paying fees into fee-paying vehicles will materially increase recurring management fees and drive revenue and FRE growth.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A: $28.4 billion in AUM not yet paying fees would provide approximately $326 million of annualized management fees once deployed (textual). Successful deployment directly enlarges the fee base and cash flows with limited marginal costs; failure or delays mean materially lower near-term revenue upside versus current expectations.
Watch: Market dislocation or credit slowdown that delays deployments (demand-side timing risk) and prevents those assets from becoming fee-paying.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: $28.4 billion in AUM not yet paying fees would provide approximately $326 million of annualized management fees once deployed.
Open source ↗Targeted acquisitions and scaling (digital infrastructure, net lease, insurance-focused offerings) will expand product breadth and distribution, producing higher firm scale (assets) and cross-sell that support revenue growth without proportionate increases in fixed costs.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Item 1: multiple acquisitions since 2021 (Oak Street, Wellfleet, IPI, Prima, KAM, Atalaya, CHI, Par Four) expanded product offerings (textual). If true, revenue and FRE can compound with operating leverage; if acquisitions fail to integrate or are overpriced, returns and margins will suffer and equity value can be impaired.
Watch: Integration failures, impairment charges, or stretched balance-sheet use that lower returns on acquired franchises.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1: multiple acquisitions since 2021 (Oak Street, Wellfleet, IPI, Prima, KAM, Atalaya, CHI, Par Four) expanded product offerings (textual).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Blue Owl's Permanent Capital and long-dated vehicles provide a stable, predictable base of management fees and high cash conversion that will keep operating cash flow robust even if GAAP net income swings. If true, investors can rely on steady distributable cash and lower downside to GAAP volatility; if false, cash generation and distributions could fall and the premium multiple would be at risk.
Monetizing the $28.4 billion of AUM not yet paying fees into fee-paying vehicles will materially increase recurring management fees and drive revenue and FRE growth. Successful deployment directly enlarges the fee base and cash flows with limited marginal costs; failure or delays mean materially lower near-term revenue upside versus current expectations.
Targeted acquisitions and scaling (digital infrastructure, net lease, insurance-focused offerings) will expand product breadth and distribution, producing higher firm scale (assets) and cross-sell that support revenue growth without proportionate increases in fixed costs. If true, revenue and FRE can compound with operating leverage; if acquisitions fail to integrate or are overpriced, returns and margins will suffer and equity value can be impaired.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Blue Owl converts scale in permanent and long-dated private capital into predictable, cash-generative management and performance economics across Credit, Real Assets and GP Strategic Capital, and that recurring cash flow — not GAAP swings.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Blue Owl Capital
Where the evidence on Blue Owl Capital stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 11, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Blue Owl's Permanent Capital and long-dated vehicles provide a stable, predictable base of management fees and high cash conversion that will keep operating cash flow robust even if GAAP net income swings.
Monetizing the $28.4 billion of AUM not yet paying fees into fee-paying vehicles will materially increase recurring management fees and drive revenue and FRE growth.
Targeted acquisitions and scaling (digital infrastructure, net lease, insurance-focused offerings) will expand product breadth and distribution, producing higher firm scale (assets) and cross-sell that support revenue growth without proportionate increases in fixed costs.
Bear case: what would count against it
Industry-wide investor flight from non-traded/permanent-structure products or policy/regulatory changes that restrict non-traded BDCs or Permanent Capital structures (demand shift).
Market dislocation or credit slowdown that delays deployments (demand-side timing risk) and prevents those assets from becoming fee-paying.
Integration failures, impairment charges, or stretched balance-sheet use that lower returns on acquired franchises.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Blue Owl Capital’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Blue Owl Capital, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Blue Owl Capital.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Blue Owl Capital filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Blue Owl Capital filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-15: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Blue Owl Capital filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-18: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Industry-wide investor flight from non-traded/permanent-structure products or policy/regulatory changes that restrict non-traded BDCs or Permanent Capital structures (demand shift).
- Market dislocation or credit slowdown that delays deployments (demand-side timing risk) and prevents those assets from becoming fee-paying.
- Integration failures, impairment charges, or stretched balance-sheet use that lower returns on acquired franchises.
OWL news
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Financial statements
OWL income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
OWL: quick answers
- When does Blue Owl Capital (OWL) report earnings next?
- Blue Owl Capital's next results are projected for February 4, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is OWL's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 98.3M OWL shares were sold short, 14.2% of its shares outstanding, down 8.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. OWL short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded OWL?
- 2 trades in OWL have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed OWL trade
- Which well-known investors own OWL?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported OWL shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
OWL in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported OWL shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.10% | $8.5M | −51.8% | Q2 2026 |