Oshkosh
OSKNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $140.10 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $137.71–$142.60 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 449.1K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 28 projected Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $116.77–$180.49 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own OSK if Oshkosh turns multi-year defense and delivery programs plus vocational pricing/throughput into predictable volume, cash and returns, while Access remains cyclical — the stock depends on execution against program ramps and tariff/market headwinds.
OSK price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Multi-year defense contracts and the NGDV USPS program provide high-visibility demand that can sustain revenue growth and convert into predictable operating cash flow, supporting reinvestment and distributions.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Business text: approximately 20% of net sales in 2025 and 2024 came from U.S. government multi-year defense contracts. If true, revenue and cash become predictable and fund buybacks/dividends and selective M&A; if false, earnings and FCF will be lumpy and the multiple should compress.
Watch: USPS delays, cancellation or major deferral of NGDV follow-on orders (removes expected Transport ramp).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business text: approximately 20% of net sales in 2025 and 2024 came from U.S. government multi-year defense contracts.
Open source ↗Improved pricing and production throughput in Vocational will sustain higher segment margins and materially lift consolidated operating income.StrengtheningMateriality: High
MD&A: Vocational sales increased 12.6% in 2025 and operating margin rose to 14.7% (up 270 bps versus 2024). Sustained Vocational margin expansion would convert sales growth into disproportionate operating income and FCF, justifying a higher multiple.
Watch: Municipal budget constraints or tender/competitive price pressure on fire apparatus and refuse vehicles that force discounting.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: Vocational sales increased 12.6% in 2025 and operating margin rose to 14.7% (up 270 bps versus 2024).
Open source ↗The Access business is cyclical and sensitive to non-residential construction spending; falling Access volumes quickly compress its margins because of fixed-cost absorption effects.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
MD&A: Access sales were down 13.0% in 2025 while Access operating income margin was 11.2%. If Access remains weak, even solid Vocational/Transport results may not prevent consolidated margin pressure; conversely, a construction rebound would restore consolidated leverage.
Watch: A sustained rebound in non-residential construction or rental demand that restores Access volumes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: Access sales were down 13.0% in 2025 while Access operating income margin was 11.2%.
Open source ↗Tariff exposure can materially reduce net income and EPS unless Oshkosh successfully offsets it with pricing, sourcing changes, or program repricing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
MD&A: tariffs cost the Company $35 million in 2025 (about $0.42 per share) and management estimates tariffs of approximately $200 million in 2026. Large unexpected tariff increases could erase margin gains and force either price increases (risking demand) or margin compression.
Watch: New or higher tariffs enacted by U.S. or trading partners beyond the company’s assumptions (raises cost).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: tariffs cost the Company $35 million in 2025 (about $0.42 per share) and management estimates tariffs of approximately $200.
Open source ↗Oshkosh’s operating cash flow, if sustained at recent levels, can fund dividends, share repurchases and small-to-medium strategic acquisitions that enhance per-share value.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Fundamentals: operating_cash_flow was $783.4 million in 2025 (up from $550.1M in 2024). Reliable FCF funds capital returns and creates optionality; a drop in cash conversion would force slower buybacks/dividend growth or riskier M&A.
Watch: Major unforeseen cash needs (large acquisition, warranty/recall, or program disruption) or sustained margin erosion reducing cash conversion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Fundamentals: operating_cash_flow was $783.4 million in 2025 (up from $550.1M in 2024).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Multi-year defense contracts and the NGDV USPS program provide high-visibility demand that can sustain revenue growth and convert into predictable operating cash flow, supporting reinvestment and distributions. If true, revenue and cash become predictable and fund buybacks/dividends and selective M&A; if false, earnings and FCF will be lumpy and the multiple should compress.
Improved pricing and production throughput in Vocational will sustain higher segment margins and materially lift consolidated operating income. Sustained Vocational margin expansion would convert sales growth into disproportionate operating income and FCF, justifying a higher multiple.
The Access business is cyclical and sensitive to non-residential construction spending; falling Access volumes quickly compress its margins because of fixed-cost absorption effects. If Access remains weak, even solid Vocational/Transport results may not prevent consolidated margin pressure; conversely, a construction rebound would restore consolidated leverage.
Tariff exposure can materially reduce net income and EPS unless Oshkosh successfully offsets it with pricing, sourcing changes, or program repricing. Large unexpected tariff increases could erase margin gains and force either price increases (risking demand) or margin compression.
Oshkosh’s operating cash flow, if sustained at recent levels, can fund dividends, share repurchases and small-to-medium strategic acquisitions that enhance per-share value. Reliable FCF funds capital returns and creates optionality; a drop in cash conversion would force slower buybacks/dividend growth or riskier M&A.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Oshkosh turns multi-year defense and delivery programs plus vocational pricing/throughput into predictable volume, cash and returns, while Access remains cyclical — the stock depends on execution against program ramps and tariff/market headwinds.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Oshkosh
Where the evidence on Oshkosh stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Multi-year defense contracts and the NGDV USPS program provide high-visibility demand that can sustain revenue growth and convert into predictable operating cash flow, supporting reinvestment and distributions.
Improved pricing and production throughput in Vocational will sustain higher segment margins and materially lift consolidated operating income.
The Access business is cyclical and sensitive to non-residential construction spending; falling Access volumes quickly compress its margins because of fixed-cost absorption effects.
Tariff exposure can materially reduce net income and EPS unless Oshkosh successfully offsets it with pricing, sourcing changes, or program repricing.
Oshkosh’s operating cash flow, if sustained at recent levels, can fund dividends, share repurchases and small-to-medium strategic acquisitions that enhance per-share value.
Bear case: what would count against it
USPS delays, cancellation or major deferral of NGDV follow-on orders (removes expected Transport ramp).
Municipal budget constraints or tender/competitive price pressure on fire apparatus and refuse vehicles that force discounting.
A sustained rebound in non-residential construction or rental demand that restores Access volumes.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Oshkosh
No break has crossed Oshkosh’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Oshkosh filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Oshkosh filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Oshkosh filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-08: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- USPS delays, cancellation or major deferral of NGDV follow-on orders (removes expected Transport ramp).
- Municipal budget constraints or tender/competitive price pressure on fire apparatus and refuse vehicles that force discounting.
- A sustained rebound in non-residential construction or rental demand that restores Access volumes.
- New or higher tariffs enacted by U.S. or trading partners beyond the company’s assumptions (raises cost).
- Major unforeseen cash needs (large acquisition, warranty/recall, or program disruption) or sustained margin erosion reducing cash conversion.
OSK news
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Financial statements
OSK income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
OSK: quick answers
- When does Oshkosh (OSK) report earnings next?
- Oshkosh's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is OSK's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 2.2M OSK shares were sold short, 3.59% of its shares outstanding, down 12.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. OSK short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded OSK?
- 26 trades in OSK have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed OSK trade
- Which well-known investors own OSK?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported OSK shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
OSK in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported OSK shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $2.0M | −35.1% | Q2 2026 |