O'Reilly Automotive
ORLYNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $89.39 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $88.45–$90.59 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 5.8M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 3 projected Projected for 2027-02-03 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $82.59–$102.46 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own ORLY if O'Reilly turns a dense store & hub distribution footprint, a dual-market (DIY + professional) go-to-market and a dedicated professional salesforce into persistent parts availability, higher-margin upsells and share gains that convert into steady cash.
ORLY price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
O'Reilly's dual-market strategy and dedicated professional salesforce will continue to generate above-industry revenue growth by gaining market share with professional service providers, because pro customers value availability, technical support and account relationships that O'Reilly's scale and 825 full-time sales reps.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue rose from $14,409,860,000 (FY 2022) to $17,781,992,000 (FY 2025), showing multi-year top-line expansion. If true, revenue and profit growth come from higher-margin pro volume and enhanced per-store productivity; if false, growth would rely only on slower DIY trends and be more cyclically sensitive.
Watch: A competitor (AutoZone/Advance) materially improving pro programs or pricing and converting large regional pro customers away from O'Reilly.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue rose from $14,409,860,000 (FY 2022) to $17,781,992,000 (FY 2025), showing multi-year top-line expansion.
Open source ↗O'Reilly's distribution/hub network and purchasing scale will preserve its ability to maintain higher gross margins and pass-through commodity cost increases, because the company cites supplier incentives, economies of scale and selective forward buying as margin-protection levers.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Gross profit increased from $7,381,706,000 (FY 2022) to $9,174,141,000 (FY 2025). Gross-margin protection preserves dollar gross profit and underpins operating profit and cash flow; losing it would force either margin-sacrificing price cuts or volume loss.
Watch: Loss of supplier incentives (e.g., vendors shifting terms), broad supplier consolidation or severe supply-chain disruption reducing availability.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit increased from $7,381,706,000 (FY 2022) to $9,174,141,000 (FY 2025).
Open source ↗O'Reilly's store expansion plus omnichannel and distribution efficiency will convert scale into operating leverage, keeping operating income and operating margin stable-to-rising as revenue grows, because expansion increases sales density per distribution hub and the company emphasizes expense control and service-driven.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating income increased from $2,954,491,000 (FY 2022) to $3,460,612,000 (FY 2025), demonstrating rising operating profit in absolute terms as revenue grew. Sustained operating-leverage prevents revenue growth from being margin-neutral and allows incremental sales to flow to operating income and free cash flow; loss of leverage would reduce returns and pressure the valuation.
Watch: Rising SG&A per store or materially lower per-store productivity from store saturation or weaker comps.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income increased from $2,954,491,000 (FY 2022) to $3,460,612,000 (FY 2025), demonstrating rising operating profit in absolute terms as revenue.
Open source ↗O'Reilly will continue to generate operating cash flow adequate to fund new stores and investor returns (capital allocation), because the business is cash-generative and management highlights converting sales into operating cash.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow has been large and positive: $3,148,250,000 (FY 2022), $3,034,084,000 (FY 2023), $3,049,576,000 (FY 2024), and $2,761,993,000 (FY 2025), showing continued multi-billion-dollar cash generation. Adequate OCF funds growth, strengthens the balance sheet and supports buybacks/dividends; if OCF falls materially, growth or returns must be cut or financed externally.
Watch: Sustained working capital build (inventory or receivables) or material increases in capex reducing FCF.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow has been large and positive: $3,148,250,000 (FY 2022), $3,034,084,000 (FY 2023), $3,049,576,000 (FY 2024), and $2,761,993,000 (FY.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
O'Reilly's dual-market strategy and dedicated professional salesforce will continue to generate above-industry revenue growth by gaining market share with professional service providers, because pro customers value availability, technical support and account relationships that O'Reilly's scale and 825 full-time sales reps. If true, revenue and profit growth come from higher-margin pro volume and enhanced per-store productivity; if false, growth would rely only on slower DIY trends and be more cyclically sensitive.
O'Reilly's distribution/hub network and purchasing scale will preserve its ability to maintain higher gross margins and pass-through commodity cost increases, because the company cites supplier incentives, economies of scale and selective forward buying as margin-protection levers. Gross-margin protection preserves dollar gross profit and underpins operating profit and cash flow; losing it would force either margin-sacrificing price cuts or volume loss.
O'Reilly's store expansion plus omnichannel and distribution efficiency will convert scale into operating leverage, keeping operating income and operating margin stable-to-rising as revenue grows, because expansion increases sales density per distribution hub and the company emphasizes expense control and service-driven. Sustained operating-leverage prevents revenue growth from being margin-neutral and allows incremental sales to flow to operating income and free cash flow; loss of leverage would reduce returns and pressure the valuation.
O'Reilly will continue to generate operating cash flow adequate to fund new stores and investor returns (capital allocation), because the business is cash-generative and management highlights converting sales into operating cash. Adequate OCF funds growth, strengthens the balance sheet and supports buybacks/dividends; if OCF falls materially, growth or returns must be cut or financed externally.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
O'Reilly turns a dense store & hub distribution footprint, a dual-market (DIY + professional) go-to-market and a dedicated professional salesforce into persistent parts availability, higher-margin upsells and share gains that convert into steady cash.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for O Reilly Automotive
Where the evidence on O Reilly Automotive stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
O'Reilly's dual-market strategy and dedicated professional salesforce will continue to generate above-industry revenue growth by gaining market share with professional service providers, because pro customers value availability, technical support and account relationships that O'Reilly's scale and 825 full-time sales reps.
O'Reilly's distribution/hub network and purchasing scale will preserve its ability to maintain higher gross margins and pass-through commodity cost increases, because the company cites supplier incentives, economies of scale and selective forward buying as margin-protection levers.
O'Reilly's store expansion plus omnichannel and distribution efficiency will convert scale into operating leverage, keeping operating income and operating margin stable-to-rising as revenue grows, because expansion increases sales density per distribution hub and the company emphasizes expense control and service-driven.
O'Reilly will continue to generate operating cash flow adequate to fund new stores and investor returns (capital allocation), because the business is cash-generative and management highlights converting sales into operating cash.
Bear case: what would count against it
A competitor (AutoZone/Advance) materially improving pro programs or pricing and converting large regional pro customers away from O'Reilly.
Loss of supplier incentives (e.g., vendors shifting terms), broad supplier consolidation or severe supply-chain disruption reducing availability.
Rising SG&A per store or materially lower per-store productivity from store saturation or weaker comps.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in O Reilly Automotive’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on O Reilly Automotive, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for O Reilly Automotive.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
O Reilly Automotive filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
O Reilly Automotive filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-01: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
O Reilly Automotive filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-14: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A competitor (AutoZone/Advance) materially improving pro programs or pricing and converting large regional pro customers away from O'Reilly.
- Loss of supplier incentives (e.g., vendors shifting terms), broad supplier consolidation or severe supply-chain disruption reducing availability.
- Rising SG&A per store or materially lower per-store productivity from store saturation or weaker comps.
- Sustained working capital build (inventory or receivables) or material increases in capex reducing FCF.
ORLY news
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Financial statements
ORLY income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
ORLY: quick answers
- When does O Reilly Automotive (ORLY) report earnings next?
- O Reilly Automotive's next results are projected for February 3, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is ORLY's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 23.2M ORLY shares were sold short, 2.90% of its shares outstanding, up 4.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ORLY short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded ORLY?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 10 trades in ORLY by 3 filers: 1 purchase and 9 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed ORLY trade
- Which well-known investors own ORLY?
- 3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ORLY shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Akre Capital Management (Chuck Akre), 3.9%; Fundsmith (Terry Smith), 0.1%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
ORLY in well-known investors’ portfolios
3 of 37 funds reported ORLY shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck AkreAkre Capital Management | 3.9% | $199M | −44.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Terry SmithFundsmith | 0.11% | $15.0M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $1.9M | −69.2% | Q2 2026 |