Oklo

OKLONYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$25.86
+$0.77 (+3.07%)Today 1M −25.48%
After hours$25.42−1.70%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$25.09
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$25.68–$26.85
Regular-session low and high so far today.
9.9M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$18.54–$116.98
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own OKLO if Oklo is a high-optionality, pre-commercial nuclear developer whose value depends on converting its advanced-reactor promise into licensed, financed, customer-backed power projects before cash burn and competition erode the option.

OKLO price history

Latest price$25.86Today+$0.77 (+3.07%)
OKLO -20.86%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Oklo’s business value depends on regulatory acceptance and first-plant deployment turning nuclear engineering spend into a repeatable commercial platform; without that unlock, the company remains a cash-consuming development project.HoldingMateriality: High

    Oklo describes its purpose as developing clean, reliable, affordable energy solutions at scale. If licensing and deployment advance, losses can become investment in a platform; if they stall, the equity is mostly a wasting option.

    Watch: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires major redesigns, additional testing, or a licensing timeline materially beyond investor expectations.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Oklo describes its purpose as developing clean, reliable, affordable energy solutions at scale.

    Open source ↗
  • A large cash balance must give Oklo enough runway to reach technical and regulatory milestones without accepting punitive financing; if cash burn accelerates ahead of de-risking, shareholder dilution becomes the dominant risk.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Cash increased from $97.1 million at FY2024 year-end to $788.4 million at FY2025 year-end. Runway determines whether owners keep the upside from commercialization or fund it through repeated dilution.

    Watch: Oklo must commit large upfront capital to long-lead nuclear components, site preparation, or fuel procurement before receiving customer or government funding.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash increased from $97.1 million at FY2024 year-end to $788.4 million at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • Oklo’s low-liability balance sheet must remain a strategic advantage while technology and licensing risk are unresolved; taking on heavy project obligations too early would shift risk from technical execution to financial distress.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 liabilities were $52.2 million against $1.53 billion of assets. A clean balance sheet lets management wait for better milestone-based financing, while premature leverage could cap upside or force restructuring if schedules slip.

    Watch: Oklo signs fixed-price engineering, procurement, or construction commitments before plant cost and licensing risk are proven.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 liabilities were $52.2 million against $1.53 billion of assets.

    Open source ↗
  • Oklo’s customer value proposition must be strong enough that buyers of clean, reliable power commit capital before plants are operating; otherwise the company bears development risk without proof that demand will fund deployment.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    The company’s stated aim is clean, reliable, affordable energy at scale, which targets a real firm-power problem. Customer commitments can validate pricing and reduce financing risk; weak demand would leave Oklo dependent on its own balance sheet and external capital.

    Watch: Large power buyers choose gas generation, grid-scale batteries, renewables plus storage, or conventional nuclear procurement instead of Oklo’s offering.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The company’s stated aim is clean, reliable, affordable energy at scale, which targets a real firm-power problem.

    Open source ↗
  • Oklo must retain and expand scarce nuclear, regulatory, and project-development talent fast enough to execute licensing and deployment; a small team magnifies key-person and hiring risk.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Oklo had 205 full-time employees as of December 31, 2025. Execution quality is the bridge between technology promise and commercial assets; talent gaps would show up first as schedule slippage and then as higher burn.

    Watch: Key founders, nuclear engineers, licensing specialists, or fuel-cycle experts depart before major regulatory milestones.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Oklo had 205 full-time employees as of December 31, 2025.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Oklo’s business value depends on regulatory acceptance and first-plant deployment turning nuclear engineering spend into a repeatable commercial platform; without that unlock, the company remains a cash-consuming development project. If licensing and deployment advance, losses can become investment in a platform; if they stall, the equity is mostly a wasting option.

A large cash balance must give Oklo enough runway to reach technical and regulatory milestones without accepting punitive financing; if cash burn accelerates ahead of de-risking, shareholder dilution becomes the dominant risk. Runway determines whether owners keep the upside from commercialization or fund it through repeated dilution.

Oklo’s low-liability balance sheet must remain a strategic advantage while technology and licensing risk are unresolved; taking on heavy project obligations too early would shift risk from technical execution to financial distress. A clean balance sheet lets management wait for better milestone-based financing, while premature leverage could cap upside or force restructuring if schedules slip.

Oklo’s customer value proposition must be strong enough that buyers of clean, reliable power commit capital before plants are operating; otherwise the company bears development risk without proof that demand will fund deployment. Customer commitments can validate pricing and reduce financing risk; weak demand would leave Oklo dependent on its own balance sheet and external capital.

Oklo must retain and expand scarce nuclear, regulatory, and project-development talent fast enough to execute licensing and deployment; a small team magnifies key-person and hiring risk. Execution quality is the bridge between technology promise and commercial assets; talent gaps would show up first as schedule slippage and then as higher burn.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Oklo is a high-optionality, pre-commercial nuclear developer whose value depends on converting its advanced-reactor promise into licensed, financed, customer-backed power projects before cash burn and competition erode the option.

Evidence assessed Oct 13, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for OKLO

Where the evidence on OKLO stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Oklo’s business value depends on regulatory acceptance and first-plant deployment turning nuclear engineering spend into a repeatable commercial platform; without that unlock, the company remains a cash-consuming development project.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A large cash balance must give Oklo enough runway to reach technical and regulatory milestones without accepting punitive financing; if cash burn accelerates ahead of de-risking, shareholder dilution becomes the dominant risk.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Oklo’s low-liability balance sheet must remain a strategic advantage while technology and licensing risk are unresolved; taking on heavy project obligations too early would shift risk from technical execution to financial distress.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Oklo’s customer value proposition must be strong enough that buyers of clean, reliable power commit capital before plants are operating; otherwise the company bears development risk without proof that demand will fund deployment.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Oklo must retain and expand scarce nuclear, regulatory, and project-development talent fast enough to execute licensing and deployment; a small team magnifies key-person and hiring risk.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires major redesigns, additional testing, or a licensing timeline materially beyond investor expectations.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Oklo must commit large upfront capital to long-lead nuclear components, site preparation, or fuel procurement before receiving customer or government funding.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Oklo signs fixed-price engineering, procurement, or construction commitments before plant cost and licensing risk are proven.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in OKLO’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on OKLO, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for OKLO.

peers+15%-13%+1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical +1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -13%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    OKLO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-11: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    OKLO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-28: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    OKLO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-13: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires major redesigns, additional testing, or a licensing timeline materially beyond investor expectations.
  • Oklo must commit large upfront capital to long-lead nuclear components, site preparation, or fuel procurement before receiving customer or government funding.
  • Oklo signs fixed-price engineering, procurement, or construction commitments before plant cost and licensing risk are proven.
  • Large power buyers choose gas generation, grid-scale batteries, renewables plus storage, or conventional nuclear procurement instead of Oklo’s offering.
  • Key founders, nuclear engineers, licensing specialists, or fuel-cycle experts depart before major regulatory milestones.

OKLO news

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Financial statements

OKLO income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

OKLO: quick answers

What is OKLO's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 37.9M OKLO shares were sold short, 19.4% of its shares outstanding, up 5.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. OKLO short interest history
Have members of Congress traded OKLO?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in OKLO by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 0 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed OKLO trade
Which well-known investors own OKLO?
2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported OKLO shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.1%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

OKLO in well-known investors’ portfolios

2 of 37 funds reported OKLO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Cathie WoodARK Investment Management0.13%$19.5M+6.0%Q2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$2.9M+2.3%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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