ONEOK
OKENYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $87.37 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $87.11–$88.71 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.5M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 22 projected Projected for 2027-02-22 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $68.20–$99.85 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own OKE if you believe ONEOK’s expanded natural-gas transmission/distribution system will keep turning essential throughput into rising cash flow without letting leverage or dilution eat the gains.
OKE price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Customers keep needing ONEOK’s natural-gas transmission and distribution network as physical takeaway capacity, so demand remains attached to its system rather than being bypassed.HoldingMateriality: High
operating_cash_flow continues to hold at or above the 2025 level and grows through quarterly and annual filings despite commodity-price volatility. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
Watch: Large shippers commit volumes to competing routes from Energy Transfer, Williams, Kinder Morgan, or other midstream operators that bypass ONEOK’s network before ONEOK’s reported cash flow rolls over.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow continues to hold at or above the 2025 level and grows through quarterly and annual filings despite commodity-price volatility.
Open source ↗ONEOK’s contract and tariff economics retain enough pricing power that higher network activity converts into operating profit instead of being competed away.HoldingMateriality: High
operating_income keeps rising or at least holds up while revenue fluctuates, showing that volume growth is not being bought with collapsing spread economics. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
Watch: Excess regional pipeline capacity lets producers or utilities renegotiate lower transportation terms, or regulators force tariff reductions that cut the economics of moving gas on ONEOK’s system.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income keeps rising or at least holds up while revenue fluctuates, showing that volume growth is not being bought with.
Open source ↗Management’s asset expansion earns incremental returns because the enlarged network is integrated and utilized, not merely a larger balance sheet financed with debt.HoldingMateriality: Medium
operating_cash_flow and operating_income grow relative to the larger assets base, indicating that added assets are producing cash rather than sitting underutilized. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
Watch: New projects or acquired assets suffer cost overruns, permitting delays, or low utilization, or management announces another large debt-funded deal before existing assets demonstrate adequate returns.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow and operating_income grow relative to the larger assets base, indicating that added assets are producing cash rather than sitting.
Open source ↗The balance sheet remains a funding tool rather than an equity overhang because cash generation covers financing needs and management avoids distress issuance.HoldingMateriality: Medium
liabilities stop outpacing operating_cash_flow and equity, and refinancing disclosures show the company can fund maturities without issuing stock under pressure. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
Watch: Credit markets or rating agencies penalize ONEOK’s leverage, forcing high-cost refinancing, asset sales, or equity issuance before the cash-flow thesis has time to play out.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
liabilities stop outpacing operating_cash_flow and equity, and refinancing disclosures show the company can fund maturities without issuing stock under pressure.
Open source ↗Per-share holders participate in the network’s cash growth because acquisitions, interest cost, and financing choices do not absorb the benefit before it reaches common shareholders.HoldingMateriality: Medium
eps_diluted moves above the 2025 level as operating_cash_flow grows, rather than remaining capped by dilution or higher financing expense. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
Watch: Management announces a large stock-funded acquisition or high-cost debt refinancing whose share count or interest burden consumes the expected operating synergies.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
eps_diluted moves above the 2025 level as operating_cash_flow grows, rather than remaining capped by dilution or higher financing expense.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Customers keep needing ONEOK’s natural-gas transmission and distribution network as physical takeaway capacity, so demand remains attached to its system rather than being bypassed. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
ONEOK’s contract and tariff economics retain enough pricing power that higher network activity converts into operating profit instead of being competed away. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
Management’s asset expansion earns incremental returns because the enlarged network is integrated and utilized, not merely a larger balance sheet financed with debt. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
The balance sheet remains a funding tool rather than an equity overhang because cash generation covers financing needs and management avoids distress issuance. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
Per-share holders participate in the network’s cash growth because acquisitions, interest cost, and financing choices do not absorb the benefit before it reaches common shareholders. This is a load-bearing condition for Oneok's investment case.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
you believe ONEOK’s expanded natural-gas transmission/distribution system will keep turning essential throughput into rising cash flow without letting leverage or dilution eat the gains.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Oneok
Where the evidence on Oneok stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 16, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Customers keep needing ONEOK’s natural-gas transmission and distribution network as physical takeaway capacity, so demand remains attached to its system rather than being bypassed.
ONEOK’s contract and tariff economics retain enough pricing power that higher network activity converts into operating profit instead of being competed away.
Management’s asset expansion earns incremental returns because the enlarged network is integrated and utilized, not merely a larger balance sheet financed with debt.
The balance sheet remains a funding tool rather than an equity overhang because cash generation covers financing needs and management avoids distress issuance.
Per-share holders participate in the network’s cash growth because acquisitions, interest cost, and financing choices do not absorb the benefit before it reaches common shareholders.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large shippers commit volumes to competing routes from Energy Transfer, Williams, Kinder Morgan, or other midstream operators that bypass ONEOK’s network before ONEOK’s reported cash flow rolls over.
Excess regional pipeline capacity lets producers or utilities renegotiate lower transportation terms, or regulators force tariff reductions that cut the economics of moving gas on ONEOK’s system.
New projects or acquired assets suffer cost overruns, permitting delays, or low utilization, or management announces another large debt-funded deal before existing assets demonstrate adequate returns.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Oneok’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Oneok, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Oneok.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Oneok filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-15: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Oneok filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-31: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedCompleted an acquisition or disposition of assets.
Oneok filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-03: Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large shippers commit volumes to competing routes from Energy Transfer, Williams, Kinder Morgan, or other midstream operators that bypass ONEOK’s network before ONEOK’s reported cash flow rolls over.
- Excess regional pipeline capacity lets producers or utilities renegotiate lower transportation terms, or regulators force tariff reductions that cut the economics of moving gas on ONEOK’s system.
- New projects or acquired assets suffer cost overruns, permitting delays, or low utilization, or management announces another large debt-funded deal before existing assets demonstrate adequate returns.
- Credit markets or rating agencies penalize ONEOK’s leverage, forcing high-cost refinancing, asset sales, or equity issuance before the cash-flow thesis has time to play out.
- Management announces a large stock-funded acquisition or high-cost debt refinancing whose share count or interest burden consumes the expected operating synergies.
OKE news
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Financial statements
OKE income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
OKE: quick answers
- When does Oneok (OKE) report earnings next?
- Oneok's next results are projected for February 22, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is OKE's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 27.2M OKE shares were sold short, 4.32% of its shares outstanding, up 15.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 9.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. OKE short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded OKE?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in OKE by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed OKE trade