National Presto Industries

NPKNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$145.60
−$0.94 (−0.64%)Today 1M −3.95%

Updated Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

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Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
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Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
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Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$146.54
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$144.25–$148.27
Regular-session low and high so far today.
116.4K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 1 projected
Projected for 2027-02-01 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$91.28–$158.17
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own NPK if National Presto creates value by manufacturing niche, higher-margin products (consumer appliances plus ordnance/industrial items) where scale and an asset-light balance sheet historically delivered steady profits — but recent rapid revenue growth has not yet.

NPK price history

LATEST PRICE$145.60TODAY−$0.94 (-0.64%)
NPK -3.77%S&P 500 -3.68%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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INVESTMENT THESIS

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • The recent large increase in annual revenue (FY2025) can be sustained only if the company converts incremental volume into repeatable orders or long-term contracts rather than one-time project sales or inventory-driven spikes.HoldingMateriality: High

    Annual revenue rose from $321,623,000 (2022) to $340,912,000 (2023) to $388,228,000 (2024) to $503,524,000 (2025) — sustained multi‑year growth with a large step-up in 2025. If growth is durable, organic expansion justifies the current premium; if it’s one-off, future revenue will fall and the valuation will de-rate.

    Watch: Loss or non-renewal of a few large customers or a major program/contract (customer-concentration event) would make the 2025 jump non-repeatable.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual revenue rose from $321,623,000 (2022) to $340,912,000 (2023) to $388,228,000 (2024) to $503,524,000 (2025) — sustained multi‑year growth with.

    Open source ↗
  • Sustained profitability requires gross margin stabilization; the business’s ability to hold pricing or reduce input/production cost pressure is the causal lever that will restore operating margins.WeakeningMateriality: High

    Gross profit increased in absolute dollars to $80,325,000 in FY2025, but as a share of revenue gross margin fell versus FY2024 (gross profit rose only modestly while revenue jumped). Margins determine free cash flow and the sustainable return on invested capital; continued margin compression will invert revenue gains into weak net cash generation.

    Watch: Continued commodity/raw-material cost inflation or unfavorable product mix shifting sales toward lower-margin product lines.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Gross profit increased in absolute dollars to $80,325,000 in FY2025, but as a share of revenue gross margin fell versus.

    Open source ↗
  • The company’s value-creation engine depends on converting reported earnings into positive, stable operating cash flow; persistent working-capital or acquisition-driven cash outflows will prevent compounding regardless of GAAP net income.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    Operating cash flow swung from $45,389,000 (FY2023) to -$53,426,000 (FY2024) to -$9,137,000 (FY2025), showing large volatility and recent negative cash conversion. If operating cash flow stays negative or volatile, management will be forced into either dilution, asset sales, or cutting dividends/capex, destroying expected shareholder returns.

    Watch: Sustained inventory builds, extended receivable terms, or acquisition payments that keep cash conversion negative.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow swung from $45,389,000 (FY2023) to -$53,426,000 (FY2024) to -$9,137,000 (FY2025), showing large volatility and recent negative cash.

    Open source ↗
  • A large equity base and relatively modest liabilities give the company financial flexibility to invest behind growth or absorb short-term cash swings without immediate dilution.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Stockholders' equity increased to $395,135,000 as of FY2025 and liabilities ($105,595,000) remain small relative to assets ($500,730,000). If balance-sheet strength persists, management can fund working-capital cycles, capex, or opportunistic M&A that underpin future scalable revenue and returns.

    Watch: Continued cash depletion could force use of the balance sheet for financing (debt or asset sales) if cash flows do not rebound.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Stockholders' equity increased to $395,135,000 as of FY2025 and liabilities ($105,595,000) remain small relative to assets ($500,730,000).

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

The recent large increase in annual revenue (FY2025) can be sustained only if the company converts incremental volume into repeatable orders or long-term contracts rather than one-time project sales or inventory-driven spikes. If growth is durable, organic expansion justifies the current premium; if it’s one-off, future revenue will fall and the valuation will de-rate.

Sustained profitability requires gross margin stabilization; the business’s ability to hold pricing or reduce input/production cost pressure is the causal lever that will restore operating margins. Margins determine free cash flow and the sustainable return on invested capital; continued margin compression will invert revenue gains into weak net cash generation.

The company’s value-creation engine depends on converting reported earnings into positive, stable operating cash flow; persistent working-capital or acquisition-driven cash outflows will prevent compounding regardless of GAAP net income. If operating cash flow stays negative or volatile, management will be forced into either dilution, asset sales, or cutting dividends/capex, destroying expected shareholder returns.

A large equity base and relatively modest liabilities give the company financial flexibility to invest behind growth or absorb short-term cash swings without immediate dilution. If balance-sheet strength persists, management can fund working-capital cycles, capex, or opportunistic M&A that underpin future scalable revenue and returns.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

National Presto creates value by manufacturing niche, higher-margin products (consumer appliances plus ordnance/industrial items) where scale and an asset-light balance sheet historically delivered steady profits — but recent rapid revenue growth has not yet.

Evidence assessed Nov 10, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

BULL CASE / BEAR CASE

Bull case and bear case for National Presto Industries

Where the evidence on National Presto Industries disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 1 holding and 2 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • The recent large increase in annual revenue (FY2025) can be sustained only if the company converts incremental volume into repeatable orders or long-term contracts rather than one-time project sales or inventory-driven spikes.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A large equity base and relatively modest liabilities give the company financial flexibility to invest behind growth or absorb short-term cash swings without immediate dilution.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Sustained profitability requires gross margin stabilization; the business’s ability to hold pricing or reduce input/production cost pressure is the causal lever that will restore operating margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The company’s value-creation engine depends on converting reported earnings into positive, stable operating cash flow; persistent working-capital or acquisition-driven cash outflows will prevent compounding regardless of GAAP net income.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · National Presto Industries

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed National Presto Industries’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. MIXED
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    National Presto Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-02: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. MIXED
    Other material event.

    National Presto Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-14: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. MIXED
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    National Presto Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-03: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

RISKS / FALSIFIERS

What could break the thesis

  • Loss or non-renewal of a few large customers or a major program/contract (customer-concentration event) would make the 2025 jump non-repeatable.
  • Continued commodity/raw-material cost inflation or unfavorable product mix shifting sales toward lower-margin product lines.
  • Sustained inventory builds, extended receivable terms, or acquisition payments that keep cash conversion negative.
  • Continued cash depletion could force use of the balance sheet for financing (debt or asset sales) if cash flows do not rebound.

NPK news

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

NPK income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

NPK: quick answers

When does National Presto Industries (NPK) report earnings next?
National Presto Industries's next results are projected for February 1, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 2, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is NPK's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 217,431 NPK shares were sold short, up 20.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. NPK short interest history
Have members of Congress traded NPK?
1 trade in NPK has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed NPK trade
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