NMI Holdings
NMIHNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $38.73 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $38.30–$39.13 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 495.8K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $35.12–$46.74 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own NMIH if NMIH is a focused private mortgage-insurance compounder whose value depends on converting lender-approved low-down-payment mortgage demand into profitable insurance-in-force while credit losses stay disciplined.
NMIH price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
NMIH remains a lender-accepted private mortgage-insurance counterparty, so low-down-payment conventional mortgage demand continues to convert into new written premiums rather than shifting to FHA or rival MIs.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased from $485.1 million in FY2021 to $706.4 million in FY2025. If this holds, NMIH can keep replenishing insurance-in-force; if it breaks, revenue growth fades before losses need to rise.
Watch: FHA pricing or eligibility changes make government mortgage insurance more attractive for borrowers who would otherwise use private MI.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased from $485.1 million in FY2021 to $706.4 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗NMIH’s underwriting discipline keeps mortgage-credit losses from overwhelming premium economics, allowing a large share of premiums to become earnings instead of claim payments.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual net income rose from $231.1 million in FY2021 to $388.9 million in FY2025. This is the core margin and capital-protection claim: if credit quality deteriorates, reported profitability and book value can fall quickly even if revenue remains visible.
Watch: A labor-market downturn raises borrower defaults before home-price appreciation can protect insured mortgages.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual net income rose from $231.1 million in FY2021 to $388.9 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗NMIH’s growing equity base gives it capacity to write new mortgage insurance and absorb credit volatility without relying on dilutive external capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $1.566 billion at FY2021 year-end to $2.592 billion at FY2025 year-end. Mortgage insurance is capital-constrained; if capital becomes inadequate, growth, dividends/buybacks, and valuation all become hostage to regulators, GSE rules, or capital markets.
Watch: GSE PMIERs or other capital requirements tighten, reducing effective writing capacity even if GAAP equity grows.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $1.566 billion at FY2021 year-end to $2.592 billion at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗NMIH’s specialized, lean operating platform lets underwriting profits convert into cash rather than being consumed by a large branch or servicing cost base.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was $419.3 million in FY2025 versus GAAP net income of $388.9 million. Cash conversion determines whether accounting earnings can fund growth, capital buffers, and per-share value creation without balance-sheet strain.
Watch: Mortgage-lender integration, compliance, or claims-management requirements force a step-change in staffing and technology spending.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was $419.3 million in FY2025 versus GAAP net income of $388.9 million.
Open source ↗NMIH’s capital deployment remains accretive to owners because retained earnings and any capital return translate into higher per-share earnings rather than dilution or trapped surplus.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $2.65 in FY2021 to $4.92 in FY2025. For shareholders, the business must compound per share, not just grow the insurance balance sheet; poor capital allocation can erase good underwriting economics.
Watch: A capital raise is needed to satisfy GSE or rating-agency capital expectations after credit losses or rule changes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $2.65 in FY2021 to $4.92 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
NMIH remains a lender-accepted private mortgage-insurance counterparty, so low-down-payment conventional mortgage demand continues to convert into new written premiums rather than shifting to FHA or rival MIs. If this holds, NMIH can keep replenishing insurance-in-force; if it breaks, revenue growth fades before losses need to rise.
NMIH’s underwriting discipline keeps mortgage-credit losses from overwhelming premium economics, allowing a large share of premiums to become earnings instead of claim payments. This is the core margin and capital-protection claim: if credit quality deteriorates, reported profitability and book value can fall quickly even if revenue remains visible.
NMIH’s growing equity base gives it capacity to write new mortgage insurance and absorb credit volatility without relying on dilutive external capital. Mortgage insurance is capital-constrained; if capital becomes inadequate, growth, dividends/buybacks, and valuation all become hostage to regulators, GSE rules, or capital markets.
NMIH’s specialized, lean operating platform lets underwriting profits convert into cash rather than being consumed by a large branch or servicing cost base. Cash conversion determines whether accounting earnings can fund growth, capital buffers, and per-share value creation without balance-sheet strain.
NMIH’s capital deployment remains accretive to owners because retained earnings and any capital return translate into higher per-share earnings rather than dilution or trapped surplus. For shareholders, the business must compound per share, not just grow the insurance balance sheet; poor capital allocation can erase good underwriting economics.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
NMIH is a focused private mortgage-insurance compounder whose value depends on converting lender-approved low-down-payment mortgage demand into profitable insurance-in-force while credit losses stay disciplined.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for NMI Holdings
Where the evidence on NMI Holdings stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
NMIH remains a lender-accepted private mortgage-insurance counterparty, so low-down-payment conventional mortgage demand continues to convert into new written premiums rather than shifting to FHA or rival MIs.
NMIH’s underwriting discipline keeps mortgage-credit losses from overwhelming premium economics, allowing a large share of premiums to become earnings instead of claim payments.
NMIH’s growing equity base gives it capacity to write new mortgage insurance and absorb credit volatility without relying on dilutive external capital.
NMIH’s specialized, lean operating platform lets underwriting profits convert into cash rather than being consumed by a large branch or servicing cost base.
NMIH’s capital deployment remains accretive to owners because retained earnings and any capital return translate into higher per-share earnings rather than dilution or trapped surplus.
Bear case: what would count against it
FHA pricing or eligibility changes make government mortgage insurance more attractive for borrowers who would otherwise use private MI.
A labor-market downturn raises borrower defaults before home-price appreciation can protect insured mortgages.
GSE PMIERs or other capital requirements tighten, reducing effective writing capacity even if GAAP equity grows.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · NMI Holdings
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MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
NMI Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
NMI Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
NMI Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-04-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- FHA pricing or eligibility changes make government mortgage insurance more attractive for borrowers who would otherwise use private MI.
- A labor-market downturn raises borrower defaults before home-price appreciation can protect insured mortgages.
- GSE PMIERs or other capital requirements tighten, reducing effective writing capacity even if GAAP equity grows.
- Mortgage-lender integration, compliance, or claims-management requirements force a step-change in staffing and technology spending.
- A capital raise is needed to satisfy GSE or rating-agency capital expectations after credit losses or rule changes.
NMIH news
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Financial statements
NMIH income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
NMIH: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded NMIH?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in NMIH by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed NMIH trade