National HealthCare
NHCNYSE AmericanUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $208.57 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $207.70–$211.35 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 69.9K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 26 projected Projected for 2027-02-26 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $124.26–$248.20 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own NHC if NHC is a regulated, labor-intensive skilled-nursing operator whose value depends on turning essential post-acute and long-term-care demand into cash while reimbursement keeps pace with staffing and care costs.
NHC price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Aging-driven post-acute and long-term-care demand, combined with the need for licensed skilled-nursing capacity, continues to translate into patient volume and payer revenue for NHC rather than shifting materially to lower-acuity home-based alternatives.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased from $1.085738 billion in FY2022 to $1.141544 billion in FY2023, $1.307382 billion in FY2024, and $1.517781 billion in FY2025. If this holds, NHC has a durable demand base; if referrals move away from skilled nursing, revenue growth loses its structural support.
Watch: Medicare Advantage plans and hospital discharge networks increasingly steer post-acute patients to home-health or lower-cost settings instead of skilled-nursing facilities.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased from $1.085738 billion in FY2022 to $1.141544 billion in FY2023, $1.307382 billion in FY2024, and $1.517781.
Open source ↗NHC’s facility-level operating model can absorb staffing and care-cost inflation when utilization and reimbursement improve, allowing incremental revenue to flow through to GAAP operating income rather than being consumed by labor costs.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating income rose from $31.896 million in FY2022 to $57.458 million in FY2023, $89.895 million in FY2024, and $128.352 million in FY2025. This determines whether growth creates owner value or merely funds higher wages, agency labor, and compliance expense.
Watch: A renewed nursing shortage forces NHC to rely heavily on contract labor or agency staffing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income rose from $31.896 million in FY2022 to $57.458 million in FY2023, $89.895 million in FY2024, and.
Open source ↗NHC’s payer contracts and government reimbursement remain collectible enough that reported earnings convert into operating cash flow, rather than being trapped in receivables or reversed by denials and settlements.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $8.742 million in FY2022 to $111.216 million in FY2023, $107.303 million in FY2024, and $185.078 million in FY2025. Cash conversion is what funds facility investment, dividends, debt reduction, and resilience in a regulated care business.
Watch: Medicare Advantage plans increase prior authorization denials, payment delays, or post-payment audits for skilled-nursing stays.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $8.742 million in FY2022 to $111.216 million in FY2023, $107.303 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗NHC’s balance sheet gives it room to invest through regulatory, staffing, and property cycles without relying on forced asset sales or materially higher leverage.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Total liabilities declined from $541.266 million at FY2024 year-end to $451.904 million at FY2025 year-end. A stronger balance sheet lets the company endure reimbursement delays and reinvest in facilities when weaker operators may be constrained.
Watch: NHC funds acquisitions or facility upgrades with substantial new debt at unattractive rates.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Total liabilities declined from $541.266 million at FY2024 year-end to $451.904 million at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗Per-share value creation depends on management sustaining care-quality, reimbursement, and cost execution without dilutive growth or value-destructive acquisitions.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS recovered from $1.45 in FY2022 to $4.34 in FY2023, $6.53 in FY2024, and $7.67 in FY2025. In a low-moat, regulated services business, shareholders benefit only if operating gains accrue per share rather than being diluted or offset by poor capital allocation.
Watch: Management pursues acquisitions of underperforming facilities that require heavy capital spending before producing acceptable returns.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS recovered from $1.45 in FY2022 to $4.34 in FY2023, $6.53 in FY2024, and $7.67 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Aging-driven post-acute and long-term-care demand, combined with the need for licensed skilled-nursing capacity, continues to translate into patient volume and payer revenue for NHC rather than shifting materially to lower-acuity home-based alternatives. If this holds, NHC has a durable demand base; if referrals move away from skilled nursing, revenue growth loses its structural support.
NHC’s facility-level operating model can absorb staffing and care-cost inflation when utilization and reimbursement improve, allowing incremental revenue to flow through to GAAP operating income rather than being consumed by labor costs. This determines whether growth creates owner value or merely funds higher wages, agency labor, and compliance expense.
NHC’s payer contracts and government reimbursement remain collectible enough that reported earnings convert into operating cash flow, rather than being trapped in receivables or reversed by denials and settlements. Cash conversion is what funds facility investment, dividends, debt reduction, and resilience in a regulated care business.
NHC’s balance sheet gives it room to invest through regulatory, staffing, and property cycles without relying on forced asset sales or materially higher leverage. A stronger balance sheet lets the company endure reimbursement delays and reinvest in facilities when weaker operators may be constrained.
Per-share value creation depends on management sustaining care-quality, reimbursement, and cost execution without dilutive growth or value-destructive acquisitions. In a low-moat, regulated services business, shareholders benefit only if operating gains accrue per share rather than being diluted or offset by poor capital allocation.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
NHC is a regulated, labor-intensive skilled-nursing operator whose value depends on turning essential post-acute and long-term-care demand into cash while reimbursement keeps pace with staffing and care costs.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for National Healthcare
Where the evidence on National Healthcare stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Aging-driven post-acute and long-term-care demand, combined with the need for licensed skilled-nursing capacity, continues to translate into patient volume and payer revenue for NHC rather than shifting materially to lower-acuity home-based alternatives.
NHC’s facility-level operating model can absorb staffing and care-cost inflation when utilization and reimbursement improve, allowing incremental revenue to flow through to GAAP operating income rather than being consumed by labor costs.
NHC’s payer contracts and government reimbursement remain collectible enough that reported earnings convert into operating cash flow, rather than being trapped in receivables or reversed by denials and settlements.
NHC’s balance sheet gives it room to invest through regulatory, staffing, and property cycles without relying on forced asset sales or materially higher leverage.
Per-share value creation depends on management sustaining care-quality, reimbursement, and cost execution without dilutive growth or value-destructive acquisitions.
Bear case: what would count against it
Medicare Advantage plans and hospital discharge networks increasingly steer post-acute patients to home-health or lower-cost settings instead of skilled-nursing facilities.
A renewed nursing shortage forces NHC to rely heavily on contract labor or agency staffing.
Medicare Advantage plans increase prior authorization denials, payment delays, or post-payment audits for skilled-nursing stays.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in National Healthcare’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on National Healthcare, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for National Healthcare.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
National Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
National Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-06: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
National Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-11: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Medicare Advantage plans and hospital discharge networks increasingly steer post-acute patients to home-health or lower-cost settings instead of skilled-nursing facilities.
- A renewed nursing shortage forces NHC to rely heavily on contract labor or agency staffing.
- Medicare Advantage plans increase prior authorization denials, payment delays, or post-payment audits for skilled-nursing stays.
- NHC funds acquisitions or facility upgrades with substantial new debt at unattractive rates.
- Management pursues acquisitions of underperforming facilities that require heavy capital spending before producing acceptable returns.
NHC news
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Financial statements
NHC income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
NHC: quick answers
- When does National Healthcare (NHC) report earnings next?
- National Healthcare's next results are projected for February 26, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 6, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is NHC's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 769,712 NHC shares were sold short, 4.91% of its shares outstanding, up 1.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. NHC short interest history