National Grid
NGGNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $83.62 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $82.49–$83.39 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 775.0K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $73.37–$94.64 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own NGG if National Grid converts a regulated transmission asset base into predictable cash flows and rising per‑share earnings — provided regulators continue to allow cost recovery and returns that cover financing and capex.
NGG price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
The regulated transmission business will keep producing predictable, relatively stable operating income because allowed returns and pass‑through mechanisms let the company convert asset investments into recurring operating profit.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_income increased to 4,934,000,000 GBP in FY2025 from 4,475,000,000 GBP in FY2024 and has been in a ~4.3–4.9bn GBP range across 2022–2025, showing less volatility than revenue. If true, owners get steady operating_income and cash to fund dividends and capex; if false, operating income falls and dividend/valuation are pressured.
Watch: A regulator (e.g., an Ofgem‑style price control) cutting the allowed return on regulated capital or narrowing pass‑through protections so that the company cannot recover financing/capex costs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income increased to 4,934,000,000 GBP in FY2025 from 4,475,000,000 GBP in FY2024 and has been in a ~4.3–4.9bn GBP range.
Open source ↗The balance sheet currently shows capacity to fund ongoing network investment and dividends because assets have grown faster than liabilities and equity has increased, supporting financing flexibility.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Assets rose to 106,742,000,000 GBP in FY2025 while liabilities were 68,916,000,000 GBP in FY2025, and equity increased to 37,826,000,000 GBP (FY2025), indicating strengthening book equity versus liabilities. If leverage remains manageable, the company can finance capex without distress or routine equity issuance; if leverage or refinancing costs rise, cash available for dividends and projects shrinks.
Watch: Sustained higher interest rates or a credit‑rating downgrade that increases financing costs and makes scheduled debt refinancings expensive.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Assets rose to 106,742,000,000 GBP in FY2025 while liabilities were 68,916,000,000 GBP in FY2025, and equity increased to 37,826,000,000 GBP.
Open source ↗Diluted EPS will remain a useful read‑through of the business only if core regulated operating performance (and not transient non‑operating gains) drives net results; sustained EPS gains depend on steady operating income and controlled financing costs.HoldingMateriality: Medium
eps_diluted rose to 0.614 GBP in FY2025 from 0.571 GBP in FY2024 and 0.463 GBP in FY2021, showing positive medium‑term per‑share earnings progression. EPS growth underpins dividend sustainability and total shareholder return; if EPS increases are driven by one‑offs, they can reverse and expose the dividend and valuation.
Watch: Earnings driven by one‑time disposals or accounting items (histor FY2023 net_income spike to 7,797,000,000 GBP suggests sizable non‑recurring items).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
eps_diluted rose to 0.614 GBP in FY2025 from 0.571 GBP in FY2024 and 0.463 GBP in FY2021, showing positive medium‑term.
Open source ↗Revenue will remain more volatile than operating income because commodity/throughput swings and pass‑through tariff mechanics affect top line while regulated allowed returns stabilize operating profit.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Revenue moved from 13,665,000,000 GBP (FY2021) to 21,659,000,000 GBP (FY2023) and then to 18,378,000,000 GBP (FY2025) while operating_income remained in a narrower band (~4.3–4.9bn GBP). If revenue volatility reflects pass‑throughs, investors should focus on operating_income and regulated metrics; if revenue falls and operating income follows, that signals loss of regulatory protection or structural demand decline.
Watch: Regulatory changes that stop pass‑through of major costs, forcing those costs to be absorbed by the company and reducing operating income.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue moved from 13,665,000,000 GBP (FY2021) to 21,659,000,000 GBP (FY2023) and then to 18,378,000,000 GBP (FY2025) while operating_income remained in.
Open source ↗Reported net income is sensitive to one‑off items and non‑operating moves, so net_income spikes or troughs can misstate core cash strength unless reconciled to operating cash flow.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
net_income jumped to 7,797,000,000 GBP in FY2023 then reverted to 2,291,000,000 GBP in FY2024 and 2,905,000,000 GBP in FY2025, indicating significant non‑recurring movement. Relying on net_income alone could mislead about recurring cash available for dividends or capex; identifying one‑offs matters for valuation and dividend forecasting.
Watch: If future net income becomes consistently higher without corresponding non‑operating disclosures, that would challenge the one‑off interpretation.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
net_income jumped to 7,797,000,000 GBP in FY2023 then reverted to 2,291,000,000 GBP in FY2024 and 2,905,000,000 GBP in FY2025, indicating.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
The regulated transmission business will keep producing predictable, relatively stable operating income because allowed returns and pass‑through mechanisms let the company convert asset investments into recurring operating profit. If true, owners get steady operating_income and cash to fund dividends and capex; if false, operating income falls and dividend/valuation are pressured.
The balance sheet currently shows capacity to fund ongoing network investment and dividends because assets have grown faster than liabilities and equity has increased, supporting financing flexibility. If leverage remains manageable, the company can finance capex without distress or routine equity issuance; if leverage or refinancing costs rise, cash available for dividends and projects shrinks.
Diluted EPS will remain a useful read‑through of the business only if core regulated operating performance (and not transient non‑operating gains) drives net results; sustained EPS gains depend on steady operating income and controlled financing costs. EPS growth underpins dividend sustainability and total shareholder return; if EPS increases are driven by one‑offs, they can reverse and expose the dividend and valuation.
Revenue will remain more volatile than operating income because commodity/throughput swings and pass‑through tariff mechanics affect top line while regulated allowed returns stabilize operating profit. If revenue volatility reflects pass‑throughs, investors should focus on operating_income and regulated metrics; if revenue falls and operating income follows, that signals loss of regulatory protection or structural demand decline.
Reported net income is sensitive to one‑off items and non‑operating moves, so net_income spikes or troughs can misstate core cash strength unless reconciled to operating cash flow. Relying on net_income alone could mislead about recurring cash available for dividends or capex; identifying one‑offs matters for valuation and dividend forecasting.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
National Grid converts a regulated transmission asset base into predictable cash flows and rising per‑share earnings — provided regulators continue to allow cost recovery and returns that cover financing and capex.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for National Grid
Where the evidence on National Grid stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
The regulated transmission business will keep producing predictable, relatively stable operating income because allowed returns and pass‑through mechanisms let the company convert asset investments into recurring operating profit.
The balance sheet currently shows capacity to fund ongoing network investment and dividends because assets have grown faster than liabilities and equity has increased, supporting financing flexibility.
Diluted EPS will remain a useful read‑through of the business only if core regulated operating performance (and not transient non‑operating gains) drives net results; sustained EPS gains depend on steady operating income and controlled financing costs.
Revenue will remain more volatile than operating income because commodity/throughput swings and pass‑through tariff mechanics affect top line while regulated allowed returns stabilize operating profit.
Reported net income is sensitive to one‑off items and non‑operating moves, so net_income spikes or troughs can misstate core cash strength unless reconciled to operating cash flow.
Bear case: what would count against it
A regulator (e.g., an Ofgem‑style price control) cutting the allowed return on regulated capital or narrowing pass‑through protections so that the company cannot recover financing/capex costs.
Sustained higher interest rates or a credit‑rating downgrade that increases financing costs and makes scheduled debt refinancings expensive.
Earnings driven by one‑time disposals or accounting items (histor FY2023 net_income spike to 7,797,000,000 GBP suggests sizable non‑recurring items).
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · National Grid
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MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedNATIONAL GRID PLC HALF-YEAR RESULTS 2026/27.
National Grid filed an SEC report on 2026-11-05: NATIONAL GRID PLC HALF-YEAR RESULTS 2026/27. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
National Grid filed an SEC report on 2026-11-05: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedBATCH FILING.
National Grid filed an SEC report on 2026-10-30: BATCH FILING. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A regulator (e.g., an Ofgem‑style price control) cutting the allowed return on regulated capital or narrowing pass‑through protections so that the company cannot recover financing/capex costs.
- Sustained higher interest rates or a credit‑rating downgrade that increases financing costs and makes scheduled debt refinancings expensive.
- Earnings driven by one‑time disposals or accounting items (histor FY2023 net_income spike to 7,797,000,000 GBP suggests sizable non‑recurring items).
- Regulatory changes that stop pass‑through of major costs, forcing those costs to be absorbed by the company and reducing operating income.
- If future net income becomes consistently higher without corresponding non‑operating disclosures, that would challenge the one‑off interpretation.
NGG news
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Financial statements
NGG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
