Nocera

NCRANASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$1.45
−$0.09 (−5.84%)Today 1M −4.35%
After hours$1.54+6.21%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$1.54
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$1.41–$1.54
Regular-session low and high so far today.
3.1K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$1.29–$39.90
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own NCRA if Nocera is a high-risk turnaround option on making a tiny fish-trading/aquaculture platform economically viable, but the current evidence shows commodity margins, cash burn, and capital-structure risk rather than a proven moat.

NCRA price history

Latest price$1.45Today−$0.09 (-5.84%)
NCRA -13.69%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Fish Trading remains a volume business with limited durable demand pull unless Nocera demonstrates recurring customer demand beyond spot or commodity trading.WeakeningMateriality: High

    FY2025 GAAP annual revenue was $11.0 million, down from $12.1 million in FY2024, suggesting the current demand base is not yet compounding. If demand is not contractually or relationship-driven, revenue can fluctuate without creating durable enterprise value.

    Watch: Disclosure of multi-year customer offtake contracts with minimum purchase commitments.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP annual revenue was $11.0 million, down from $12.1 million in FY2024, suggesting the current demand base is not.

    Open source ↗
  • Suppliers and customers currently appear to capture most of the economics, so scaling Fish Trading will not create much value unless Nocera changes mix or gains pricing power.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    FY2025 GAAP annual gross profit was only $161,245 on $11.0 million of revenue, implying roughly 1.5% gross margin. Gross-profit capture determines whether revenue growth can fund operations, reinvestment, and shareholder value.

    Watch: Exclusive sourcing rights, proprietary aquaculture production, processing, or branding that raises Nocera’s take-rate.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP annual gross profit was only $161,245 on $11.0 million of revenue, implying roughly 1.5% gross margin.

    Open source ↗
  • The larger cash balance gives management a window to improve the business model, but it creates value only if deployed into higher-margin, working-capital-efficient operations rather than funding continuing losses.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Cash rose to $8.0 million at FY2025 year-end from $0.5 million at FY2024 year-end, materially extending available liquidity. Cash can be a bridge to a better model or simply a countdown to dilution and balance-sheet stress.

    Watch: Large acquisitions, inventory commitments, or supplier prepayments that consume cash before margins improve.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash rose to $8.0 million at FY2025 year-end from $0.5 million at FY2024 year-end, materially extending available liquidity.

    Open source ↗
  • Capital structure will drive per-share outcomes unless Nocera restores positive equity through profitable operations or non-punitive financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Stockholders’ equity was negative $0.4 million at FY2025 year-end, down from positive $2.1 million at FY2024 year-end. Even an operating recovery may not benefit common shareholders if liabilities, conversions, or financing terms absorb the value.

    Watch: Favorable settlement, conversion, or refinancing of liabilities without material common-share dilution.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Stockholders’ equity was negative $0.4 million at FY2025 year-end, down from positive $2.1 million at FY2024 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • The business has not yet shown operating leverage because public-company and operating costs overwhelm the gross profit generated by current trading activity.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 GAAP net loss was $2.9 million despite $11.0 million of revenue. Without operating leverage, higher revenue may still leave shareholders funding recurring losses.

    Watch: A structural reduction in corporate overhead or operating expenses not tied to cutting necessary controls.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP net loss was $2.9 million despite $11.0 million of revenue.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Fish Trading remains a volume business with limited durable demand pull unless Nocera demonstrates recurring customer demand beyond spot or commodity trading. If demand is not contractually or relationship-driven, revenue can fluctuate without creating durable enterprise value.

Suppliers and customers currently appear to capture most of the economics, so scaling Fish Trading will not create much value unless Nocera changes mix or gains pricing power. Gross-profit capture determines whether revenue growth can fund operations, reinvestment, and shareholder value.

The larger cash balance gives management a window to improve the business model, but it creates value only if deployed into higher-margin, working-capital-efficient operations rather than funding continuing losses. Cash can be a bridge to a better model or simply a countdown to dilution and balance-sheet stress.

Capital structure will drive per-share outcomes unless Nocera restores positive equity through profitable operations or non-punitive financing. Even an operating recovery may not benefit common shareholders if liabilities, conversions, or financing terms absorb the value.

The business has not yet shown operating leverage because public-company and operating costs overwhelm the gross profit generated by current trading activity. Without operating leverage, higher revenue may still leave shareholders funding recurring losses.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Nocera is a high-risk turnaround option on making a tiny fish-trading/aquaculture platform economically viable, but the current evidence shows commodity margins, cash burn, and capital-structure risk rather than a proven moat.

Evidence assessed Nov 9, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Nocera

Where the evidence on Nocera disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening, 1 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Suppliers and customers currently appear to capture most of the economics, so scaling Fish Trading will not create much value unless Nocera changes mix or gains pricing power.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The larger cash balance gives management a window to improve the business model, but it creates value only if deployed into higher-margin, working-capital-efficient operations rather than funding continuing losses.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Capital structure will drive per-share outcomes unless Nocera restores positive equity through profitable operations or non-punitive financing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The business has not yet shown operating leverage because public-company and operating costs overwhelm the gross profit generated by current trading activity.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Fish Trading remains a volume business with limited durable demand pull unless Nocera demonstrates recurring customer demand beyond spot or commodity trading.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Nocera

Loading the break-condition record for Nocera.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Nocera filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-23: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Nocera filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-19: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Previously issued financials no longer reliable (restatement).

    Nocera filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-17: Previously issued financials no longer reliable (restatement). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Disclosure of multi-year customer offtake contracts with minimum purchase commitments.
  • Exclusive sourcing rights, proprietary aquaculture production, processing, or branding that raises Nocera’s take-rate.
  • Large acquisitions, inventory commitments, or supplier prepayments that consume cash before margins improve.
  • Favorable settlement, conversion, or refinancing of liabilities without material common-share dilution.
  • A structural reduction in corporate overhead or operating expenses not tied to cutting necessary controls.

NCRA news

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Financial statements

NCRA income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

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