NBT Bancorp
NBTBNASDAQUSD
- — Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- — Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- — Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $53.64 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $52.82–$53.69 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 173.1K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 25 projected Projected for 2027-01-25 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $39.45–$55.35 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own NBTB if NBT Bancorp leverages a growing regional loan franchise and stable operating cash generation to compound earnings, but its durability depends on deposit/funding stability, credit performance on real-estate‑secured loans, and managing higher compliance costs from.
NBTB price history
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INVESTMENT THESIS
What must happen next
Sustained loan and deposit growth, together with maintained net interest margin, will keep revenue growing and fund earnings expansion.StrengtheningMateriality: High
revenue increased from 478,882,000 (FY 2021) to 697,039,000 (FY 2025), showing conversion of asset growth into top-line. If true, the bank can compound earnings organically and support dividends; if false, growth will be costly or earnings will stall.
Watch: a sustained competitive campaign by larger regional banks or fintechs that forces materially higher deposit rates and raises funding costs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
revenue increased from 478,882,000 (FY 2021) to 697,039,000 (FY 2025), showing conversion of asset growth into top-line.
Open source ↗Equity growth provides a tangible capital buffer to absorb credit losses and support dividends/capital returns without immediate external capital raises.StrengtheningMateriality: High
equity rose from 1,250,453,000 (2021) → 1,426,569,000 (2023) → 1,526,141,000 (2024) → 1,896,216,000 (2025), showing accumulation of capital. A growing equity base reduces the probability that stress or higher provisions will force equity issuance or dividend cuts; loss of this buffer would materially raise dilution risk.
Watch: a concentrated CRE or other sector loan loss cycle that materially increases allowance needs and regulatory capital pressure.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
equity rose from 1,250,453,000 (2021) → 1,426,569,000 (2023) → 1,526,141,000 (2024) → 1,896,216,000 (2025), showing accumulation of capital.
Open source ↗Operating cash flow generation will continue to fund organic growth and shareholder distributions without heavy reliance on costly external financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
operating_cash_flow increased from 157,457,000 (FY 2023) → 188,567,000 (FY 2024) → 235,218,000 (FY 2025), indicating rising cash generation. Strong operating cash flow means less need to pay up for deposits or issue debt/equity; a collapse would force expensive funding and compress returns.
Watch: rapid deposit outflows driven by competition or market panic that force reliance on brokered deposits or wholesale borrowings.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow increased from 157,457,000 (FY 2023) → 188,567,000 (FY 2024) → 235,218,000 (FY 2025), indicating rising cash generation.
Open source ↗Under CECL, allowance volatility tied to macroeconomic forecasts will materially affect provisions and therefore net income from period to period.HoldingMateriality: Medium
MD&A explicitly states CECL may create more volatility in the allowance for credit losses and affect results. If macro forecasts deteriorate, provisions can spike and compress earnings even if loan origination remains steady; investors must therefore watch forward-looking allowance drivers.
Watch: sustained benign macro environment and stable underwriting that prevent allowance build despite CECL.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A explicitly states CECL may create more volatility in the allowance for credit losses and affect results.
Open source ↗Crossing the $10B asset threshold increases regulatory/compliance costs and supervisory burden, which will depress reported operating leverage unless offset by higher revenue.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
business_text states the company is subject to heightened regulatory requirements because it exceeds $10 billion in total consolidated assets. Higher fixed compliance costs reduce operating margin and earnings sensitivity to growth — if revenue doesn't scale, ROE and EPS will suffer.
Watch: management successfully achieves scale economies that offset compliance cost increases via higher fee income or loan yields.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
business_text states the company is subject to heightened regulatory requirements because it exceeds $10 billion in total consolidated assets.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Sustained loan and deposit growth, together with maintained net interest margin, will keep revenue growing and fund earnings expansion. If true, the bank can compound earnings organically and support dividends; if false, growth will be costly or earnings will stall.
Equity growth provides a tangible capital buffer to absorb credit losses and support dividends/capital returns without immediate external capital raises. A growing equity base reduces the probability that stress or higher provisions will force equity issuance or dividend cuts; loss of this buffer would materially raise dilution risk.
Operating cash flow generation will continue to fund organic growth and shareholder distributions without heavy reliance on costly external financing. Strong operating cash flow means less need to pay up for deposits or issue debt/equity; a collapse would force expensive funding and compress returns.
Under CECL, allowance volatility tied to macroeconomic forecasts will materially affect provisions and therefore net income from period to period. If macro forecasts deteriorate, provisions can spike and compress earnings even if loan origination remains steady; investors must therefore watch forward-looking allowance drivers.
Crossing the $10B asset threshold increases regulatory/compliance costs and supervisory burden, which will depress reported operating leverage unless offset by higher revenue. Higher fixed compliance costs reduce operating margin and earnings sensitivity to growth — if revenue doesn't scale, ROE and EPS will suffer.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
NBT Bancorp leverages a growing regional loan franchise and stable operating cash generation to compound earnings, but its durability depends on deposit/funding stability, credit performance on real-estate‑secured loans, and managing higher compliance costs from.
BULL CASE / BEAR CASE
Bull case and bear case for NBT Bancorp
Where the evidence on NBT Bancorp stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Sustained loan and deposit growth, together with maintained net interest margin, will keep revenue growing and fund earnings expansion.
Equity growth provides a tangible capital buffer to absorb credit losses and support dividends/capital returns without immediate external capital raises.
Operating cash flow generation will continue to fund organic growth and shareholder distributions without heavy reliance on costly external financing.
Under CECL, allowance volatility tied to macroeconomic forecasts will materially affect provisions and therefore net income from period to period.
Crossing the $10B asset threshold increases regulatory/compliance costs and supervisory burden, which will depress reported operating leverage unless offset by higher revenue.
Bear case: what would count against it
a sustained competitive campaign by larger regional banks or fintechs that forces materially higher deposit rates and raises funding costs.
a concentrated CRE or other sector loan loss cycle that materially increases allowance needs and regulatory capital pressure.
rapid deposit outflows driven by competition or market panic that force reliance on brokered deposits or wholesale borrowings.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · NBT Bancorp
No break has crossed NBT Bancorp’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MIXEDRegulation FD disclosure.
NBT Bancorp filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDReported results of operations (earnings release).
NBT Bancorp filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDDirector or principal officer change.
NBT Bancorp filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-21: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
RISKS / FALSIFIERS
What could break the thesis
- a sustained competitive campaign by larger regional banks or fintechs that forces materially higher deposit rates and raises funding costs.
- a concentrated CRE or other sector loan loss cycle that materially increases allowance needs and regulatory capital pressure.
- rapid deposit outflows driven by competition or market panic that force reliance on brokered deposits or wholesale borrowings.
- sustained benign macro environment and stable underwriting that prevent allowance build despite CECL.
- management successfully achieves scale economies that offset compliance cost increases via higher fee income or loan yields.
NBTB news
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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
NBTB income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
NBTB: quick answers
- When does NBT Bancorp (NBTB) report earnings next?
- NBT Bancorp's next results are projected for January 25, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is NBTB's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 2.7M NBTB shares were sold short, up 2.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 9.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. NBTB short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded NBTB?
- 2 trades in NBTB have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed NBTB trade