Nabors Industries

NBRNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

Email me when the NBR thesis changes

Evidence-based analysis, not personalized investment advice. Every alert email carries an unsubscribe link.

Follow on X
$77.32
+$0.38 (+0.49%)Today 1M −4.15%

Updated Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

—
Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
—
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
—
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$76.94
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$73.65–$77.61
Regular-session low and high so far today.
244.5K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 10 projected
Projected for 2027-02-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$44.04–$112.90
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own NBR if Nabors is a leveraged contract-drilling recovery whose equity value depends on whether 2025’s improved rig demand, pricing and cash generation prove durable enough to strengthen the balance sheet through the cycle.

NBR price history

LATEST PRICE$77.32TODAY+$0.38 (+0.49%)
NBR -3.35%S&P 500 -3.68%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

INVESTMENT THESIS

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Oil-and-gas operators continue to require outsourced drilling capacity from Nabors rather than idling rigs or shifting budgets away from land drilling, so fleet utilization remains economically relevant.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue was $3.185 billion in FY2025, up from $2.930 billion in FY2024. If customer drilling programs stay active, Nabors can keep converting rig capacity into revenue; if operator capex rolls over, the fixed-cost nature of drilling rigs quickly pressures the equity.

    Watch: Upstream customers cut land-drilling budgets after lower oil or gas prices, choosing to complete existing drilled-but-uncompleted wells instead of contracting new drilling work.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue was $3.185 billion in FY2025, up from $2.930 billion in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Nabors’ utilization, dayrate pricing and cost discipline are strong enough that additional drilling work drops through to operating profit instead of being absorbed by labor, maintenance and reactivation costs.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual operating income was $471.1 million in FY2025, up from $416.8 million in FY2024. Revenue growth only creates owner value if it carries attractive margins; otherwise Nabors can grow activity while failing to earn adequate returns on a capital-intensive rig base.

    Watch: Excess land-rig supply causes spot dayrates to fall as Helmerich & Payne, Patterson-UTI or other drillers compete aggressively for the same programs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income was $471.1 million in FY2025, up from $416.8 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • The drilling recovery continues to convert into operating cash flow, giving Nabors internal funding capacity rather than forcing the company to rely primarily on external capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was $693.3 million in FY2025, up from $581.4 million in FY2024. For a cyclical driller, cash conversion determines whether an upturn strengthens the company or is consumed by working capital, maintenance capex and fleet spending.

    Watch: Rig reactivation, maintenance or technology spending rises materially, consuming operating cash before it can reduce debt or build liquidity.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was $693.3 million in FY2025, up from $581.4 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Management uses the cyclical recovery to preserve liquidity and reduce balance-sheet risk rather than pursuing debt-funded growth that would leave common shareholders exposed in the next downturn.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Total liabilities were $3.352 billion at FY2025 year-end, down from $3.997 billion at FY2023 year-end. Because drilling is cyclical and capital intensive, the equity can be impaired even with a sound operating business if liabilities remain too large when the cycle turns.

    Watch: Nabors undertakes a debt-funded acquisition, newbuild program or aggressive fleet expansion before the balance sheet is durably repaired.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Total liabilities were $3.352 billion at FY2025 year-end, down from $3.997 billion at FY2023 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Oil-and-gas operators continue to require outsourced drilling capacity from Nabors rather than idling rigs or shifting budgets away from land drilling, so fleet utilization remains economically relevant. If customer drilling programs stay active, Nabors can keep converting rig capacity into revenue; if operator capex rolls over, the fixed-cost nature of drilling rigs quickly pressures the equity.

Nabors’ utilization, dayrate pricing and cost discipline are strong enough that additional drilling work drops through to operating profit instead of being absorbed by labor, maintenance and reactivation costs. Revenue growth only creates owner value if it carries attractive margins; otherwise Nabors can grow activity while failing to earn adequate returns on a capital-intensive rig base.

The drilling recovery continues to convert into operating cash flow, giving Nabors internal funding capacity rather than forcing the company to rely primarily on external capital. For a cyclical driller, cash conversion determines whether an upturn strengthens the company or is consumed by working capital, maintenance capex and fleet spending.

Management uses the cyclical recovery to preserve liquidity and reduce balance-sheet risk rather than pursuing debt-funded growth that would leave common shareholders exposed in the next downturn. Because drilling is cyclical and capital intensive, the equity can be impaired even with a sound operating business if liabilities remain too large when the cycle turns.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Nabors is a leveraged contract-drilling recovery whose equity value depends on whether 2025’s improved rig demand, pricing and cash generation prove durable enough to strengthen the balance sheet through the cycle.

Evidence assessed Oct 13, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

BULL CASE / BEAR CASE

Bull case and bear case for Nabors Industries

Where the evidence on Nabors Industries stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Oil-and-gas operators continue to require outsourced drilling capacity from Nabors rather than idling rigs or shifting budgets away from land drilling, so fleet utilization remains economically relevant.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Nabors’ utilization, dayrate pricing and cost discipline are strong enough that additional drilling work drops through to operating profit instead of being absorbed by labor, maintenance and reactivation costs.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The drilling recovery continues to convert into operating cash flow, giving Nabors internal funding capacity rather than forcing the company to rely primarily on external capital.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management uses the cyclical recovery to preserve liquidity and reduce balance-sheet risk rather than pursuing debt-funded growth that would leave common shareholders exposed in the next downturn.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Upstream customers cut land-drilling budgets after lower oil or gas prices, choosing to complete existing drilled-but-uncompleted wells instead of contracting new drilling work.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Excess land-rig supply causes spot dayrates to fall as Helmerich & Payne, Patterson-UTI or other drillers compete aggressively for the same programs.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Rig reactivation, maintenance or technology spending rises materially, consuming operating cash before it can reduce debt or build liquidity.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Nabors Industries

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Nabors Industries’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. MIXED
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Nabors Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-08: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. MIXED
    Unregistered sale of equity securities.

    Nabors Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-27: Unregistered sale of equity securities. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. MIXED
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Nabors Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

RISKS / FALSIFIERS

What could break the thesis

  • Upstream customers cut land-drilling budgets after lower oil or gas prices, choosing to complete existing drilled-but-uncompleted wells instead of contracting new drilling work.
  • Excess land-rig supply causes spot dayrates to fall as Helmerich & Payne, Patterson-UTI or other drillers compete aggressively for the same programs.
  • Rig reactivation, maintenance or technology spending rises materially, consuming operating cash before it can reduce debt or build liquidity.
  • Nabors undertakes a debt-funded acquisition, newbuild program or aggressive fleet expansion before the balance sheet is durably repaired.

NBR news

Loading headlines…

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

NBR income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

NBR: quick answers

When does Nabors Industries (NBR) report earnings next?
Nabors Industries's next results are projected for February 10, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is NBR's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 880,257 NBR shares were sold short, down 10.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. NBR short interest history
Have members of Congress traded NBR?
3 trades in NBR have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed NBR trade
Which well-known investors own NBR?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported NBR shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Miller Value Partners (Bill Miller), 8.8%. Fund portfolios

NBR in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported NBR shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Bill MillerMiller Value Partners8.8%$37.4M+0.2%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

ScoutJUST THIS STORY

LET’S MAKE THIS USEFUL · 1 OF 5

How would you like me to explain this?

Tell me what you want from this read. Start with a quick note, then adjust the details. Your other stories stay as they are.

We’ll remember your view of this story. The published article stays unchanged.

THIS STORY’S READING VIEWStandard · The whole picture

Clear explanations with context. Both sides of the evidence.