Neurocrine Biosciences
NBIXNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $169.14 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $168.10–$174.59 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.1M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 10 projected Projected for 2027-02-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $122.14–$186.12 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own NBIX if Neurocrine converts dominant specialty-market positions in VMAT2 (INGREZZA) and a first-in-class rare-disease launch (CRENESSITY) into recurring, high-margin cash flow that funds pipeline development and shareholder returns — provided commercial execution and late‑stage pipeline progress.
NBIX price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
INGREZZA's entrenched VMAT2 leadership, focused specialty distribution and planned salesforce expansion will continue to drive net sales growth and remain the company's primary cash engine.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Item 1 Business: INGREZZA net product sales were $2.51 billion for 2025 (first source-level filing fact confirming product-level scale). If INGREZZA keeps growing, the company funds R&D and launches internally; if it loses share, the whole growth story and cash generation weakens.
Watch: Approval and commercial success of a rival VMAT2 inhibitor or an alternative TD therapy that meaningfully takes prescribing share.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1 Business: INGREZZA net product sales were $2.51 billion for 2025 (first source-level filing fact confirming product-level scale).
Open source ↗CRENESSITY's first‑in‑class rare‑disease positioning plus single‑specialty pharmacy distribution will allow it to scale into a material second product line that diversifies revenue away from INGREZZA.HoldingMateriality: High
Item 1 Business: CRENESSITY net product sales were $301.2 million for 2025 (first full year), demonstrating an initial commercial ramp. A sustainable CRENESSITY franchise reduces single‑product risk and supports the premium valuation; failure to scale preserves concentration risk.
Watch: Difficulty identifying/diagnosing the patient population leading to low specialty‑pharmacy enrollment and slow uptake.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1 Business: CRENESSITY net product sales were $301.2 million for 2025 (first full year), demonstrating an initial commercial ramp.
Open source ↗Low cost of goods and specialty distribution convert a large share of product revenue into operating cash flow, enabling self‑funding of launches, R&D and shareholder returns.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Fundamentals: gross_profit (derived) for 2025 is $2,808,400,000 on revenue $2,860,500,000 — indicating very high product gross margins. If cash conversion holds, Neurocrine can expand commercial capabilities and fund pipeline without heavy dilution or debt; if margins compress, funding and capital allocation flexibility tightens.
Watch: Manufacturing or quality issues at third‑party suppliers that raise COGS or trigger recalls.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Fundamentals: gross_profit (derived) for 2025 is $2,808,400,000 on revenue $2,860,500,000 — indicating very high product gross margins.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
INGREZZA's entrenched VMAT2 leadership, focused specialty distribution and planned salesforce expansion will continue to drive net sales growth and remain the company's primary cash engine. If INGREZZA keeps growing, the company funds R&D and launches internally; if it loses share, the whole growth story and cash generation weakens.
CRENESSITY's first‑in‑class rare‑disease positioning plus single‑specialty pharmacy distribution will allow it to scale into a material second product line that diversifies revenue away from INGREZZA. A sustainable CRENESSITY franchise reduces single‑product risk and supports the premium valuation; failure to scale preserves concentration risk.
Low cost of goods and specialty distribution convert a large share of product revenue into operating cash flow, enabling self‑funding of launches, R&D and shareholder returns. If cash conversion holds, Neurocrine can expand commercial capabilities and fund pipeline without heavy dilution or debt; if margins compress, funding and capital allocation flexibility tightens.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Neurocrine converts dominant specialty-market positions in VMAT2 (INGREZZA) and a first-in-class rare-disease launch (CRENESSITY) into recurring, high-margin cash flow that funds pipeline development and shareholder returns — provided commercial execution and late‑stage pipeline progress.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Neurocrine Biosciences
Where the evidence on Neurocrine Biosciences stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
INGREZZA's entrenched VMAT2 leadership, focused specialty distribution and planned salesforce expansion will continue to drive net sales growth and remain the company's primary cash engine.
CRENESSITY's first‑in‑class rare‑disease positioning plus single‑specialty pharmacy distribution will allow it to scale into a material second product line that diversifies revenue away from INGREZZA.
Low cost of goods and specialty distribution convert a large share of product revenue into operating cash flow, enabling self‑funding of launches, R&D and shareholder returns.
Bear case: what would count against it
Approval and commercial success of a rival VMAT2 inhibitor or an alternative TD therapy that meaningfully takes prescribing share.
Difficulty identifying/diagnosing the patient population leading to low specialty‑pharmacy enrollment and slow uptake.
Manufacturing or quality issues at third‑party suppliers that raise COGS or trigger recalls.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Neurocrine Biosciences
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MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Neurocrine Biosciences filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-02: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Neurocrine Biosciences filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-28: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Neurocrine Biosciences filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Approval and commercial success of a rival VMAT2 inhibitor or an alternative TD therapy that meaningfully takes prescribing share.
- Difficulty identifying/diagnosing the patient population leading to low specialty‑pharmacy enrollment and slow uptake.
- Manufacturing or quality issues at third‑party suppliers that raise COGS or trigger recalls.
NBIX news
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Financial statements
NBIX income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
NBIX: quick answers
- When does Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) report earnings next?
- Neurocrine Biosciences's next results are projected for February 10, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 2, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is NBIX's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 5.9M NBIX shares were sold short, 5.83% of its shares outstanding, down 8.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. NBIX short interest history
- Which well-known investors own NBIX?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported NBIX shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
NBIX in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported NBIX shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.14% | $34.7M | +38.8% | Q2 2026 |