Mueller Water Products
MWANYSEUSD
- — Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- — Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- — Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $24.46 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $23.99–$24.47 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 3 projected Projected for 2027-02-03 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $20.90–$31.00 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own MWA if Mueller Water Products turns its scale, branded installed base and municipal specification positions into recurring, higher-margin aftermarket and new-build water-infrastructure revenue, producing steady free cash and optionality for returns or M&A.
MWA price history
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INVESTMENT THESIS
What must happen next
Mueller's large installed base and specification presence with municipalities and major distributors will keep replacement and recurring aftermarket demand growing and limit revenue cyclicality.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Business text: Company states it has one of the largest installed bases of iron gate valves and fire hydrants and products are specified for the largest 100 metropolitan areas (Item 1. BUSINESS). If recurring installed-base demand holds, revenue is steadier and more margin-accretive (aftermarket sales), supporting valuation; if municipalities shift specs or consolidate suppliers, top-line durability weakens.
Watch: A shift in municipal procurement away from Mueller's brands (e.g., specifications awarded to lower-cost competitors or alternative-material suppliers) that reduces specification-based wins.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business text: Company states it has one of the largest installed bases of iron gate valves and fire hydrants and.
Open source ↗Recent margin gains reflect sustainable pricing, mix and scale rather than temporary cost tailwinds, and can be maintained or improved through continued mix shift to higher-margin aftermarket and operational leverage.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_income rose from 181,700,000 USD (FY2024 'operating_income') to 260,600,000 USD (FY2025 'operating_income'), a materially larger increase than revenue growth over the same period. If margin improvement is durable, operating income and free cash flow will compound, justifying the current multiple; if margins revert, EPS and FCF will disappoint and the stock multiple will compress.
Watch: Sustained escalation in raw material, energy or labor costs (MD&A warns plants use significant electricity generated by burning fossil fuels and that energy/compliance costs may increase).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income rose from 181,700,000 USD (FY2024 'operating_income') to 260,600,000 USD (FY2025 'operating_income'), a materially larger increase than revenue growth over.
Open source ↗Aftermarket and replacement parts tied to the installed base create higher-margin, recurring revenue that protects results during new-build downturns.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Business text: Company highlights a large installed base, long-standing relationships with distributors and specification in major metro areas (Item 1. BUSINESS), which typically produce aftermarket demand. A larger recurring aftermarket stream smooths revenue and supports higher gross margins and cash conversion; loss of aftermarket share would make results more cyclical and margin-sensitive.
Watch: A structural shift to alternative products/materials (e.g., non-metallic hydrants/valves) that reduce demand for traditional replacement parts.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business text: Company highlights a large installed base, long-standing relationships with distributors and specification in major metro areas (Item 1.
Open source ↗The company's large cash balance and improved operating income provide optionality (share buybacks, dividends, or accretive M&A) that can amplify per-share returns.HoldingMateriality: Medium
cash increased to 431,500,000 USD (instant 2025-09-30 'cash') from 309,900,000 USD (instant 2024-09-30 'cash') and 160,300,000 USD (instant 2023-09-30 'cash'). If cash is deployed to buy back undervalued shares or make accretive acquisitions, EPS and shareholder value rise; if cash is consumed by indemnities, pensions, or poor deals, per-share value may decline.
Watch: Realization of contingent liabilities if Tyco indemnitors become unable to perform (MD&A warns of reliance on Tyco indemnities and risk if they become financially unable).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
cash increased to 431,500,000 USD (instant 2025-09-30 'cash') from 309,900,000 USD (instant 2024-09-30 'cash') and 160,300,000 USD (instant 2023-09-30 'cash').
Open source ↗Labor relations (collective bargaining) and pension obligations are a material operational risk that could quickly erode margins and cash flow if negotiations fail or pension costs rise.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Item 7 MD&A warns many manufacturing employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements and that strikes/work stoppages could impair supply and increase expenses. A strike or sudden pension charge would reduce operating_cash_flow and operating_income, forcing expensive remediation or cash use that undermines the investment case.
Watch: Successful renegotiation of multiple CBAs on favorable terms, or automation reducing labor exposure.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 7 MD&A warns many manufacturing employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements and that strikes/work stoppages could impair supply.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Mueller's large installed base and specification presence with municipalities and major distributors will keep replacement and recurring aftermarket demand growing and limit revenue cyclicality. If recurring installed-base demand holds, revenue is steadier and more margin-accretive (aftermarket sales), supporting valuation; if municipalities shift specs or consolidate suppliers, top-line durability weakens.
Recent margin gains reflect sustainable pricing, mix and scale rather than temporary cost tailwinds, and can be maintained or improved through continued mix shift to higher-margin aftermarket and operational leverage. If margin improvement is durable, operating income and free cash flow will compound, justifying the current multiple; if margins revert, EPS and FCF will disappoint and the stock multiple will compress.
Aftermarket and replacement parts tied to the installed base create higher-margin, recurring revenue that protects results during new-build downturns. A larger recurring aftermarket stream smooths revenue and supports higher gross margins and cash conversion; loss of aftermarket share would make results more cyclical and margin-sensitive.
The company's large cash balance and improved operating income provide optionality (share buybacks, dividends, or accretive M&A) that can amplify per-share returns. If cash is deployed to buy back undervalued shares or make accretive acquisitions, EPS and shareholder value rise; if cash is consumed by indemnities, pensions, or poor deals, per-share value may decline.
Labor relations (collective bargaining) and pension obligations are a material operational risk that could quickly erode margins and cash flow if negotiations fail or pension costs rise. A strike or sudden pension charge would reduce operating_cash_flow and operating_income, forcing expensive remediation or cash use that undermines the investment case.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Mueller Water Products turns its scale, branded installed base and municipal specification positions into recurring, higher-margin aftermarket and new-build water-infrastructure revenue, producing steady free cash and optionality for returns or M&A.
BULL CASE / BEAR CASE
Bull case and bear case for Mueller Water Products
Where the evidence on Mueller Water Products stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 11, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Mueller's large installed base and specification presence with municipalities and major distributors will keep replacement and recurring aftermarket demand growing and limit revenue cyclicality.
Recent margin gains reflect sustainable pricing, mix and scale rather than temporary cost tailwinds, and can be maintained or improved through continued mix shift to higher-margin aftermarket and operational leverage.
Aftermarket and replacement parts tied to the installed base create higher-margin, recurring revenue that protects results during new-build downturns.
The company's large cash balance and improved operating income provide optionality (share buybacks, dividends, or accretive M&A) that can amplify per-share returns.
Labor relations (collective bargaining) and pension obligations are a material operational risk that could quickly erode margins and cash flow if negotiations fail or pension costs rise.
Bear case: what would count against it
A shift in municipal procurement away from Mueller's brands (e.g., specifications awarded to lower-cost competitors or alternative-material suppliers) that reduces specification-based wins.
Sustained escalation in raw material, energy or labor costs (MD&A warns plants use significant electricity generated by burning fossil fuels and that energy/compliance costs may increase).
A structural shift to alternative products/materials (e.g., non-metallic hydrants/valves) that reduce demand for traditional replacement parts.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Mueller Water Products’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Mueller Water Products, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Mueller Water Products.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Mueller Water Products at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MIXEDRegulation FD disclosure.
Mueller Water Products filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-09: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDReported results of operations (earnings release).
Mueller Water Products filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDOther material event.
Mueller Water Products filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-22: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
RISKS / FALSIFIERS
What could break the thesis
- A shift in municipal procurement away from Mueller's brands (e.g., specifications awarded to lower-cost competitors or alternative-material suppliers) that reduces specification-based wins.
- Sustained escalation in raw material, energy or labor costs (MD&A warns plants use significant electricity generated by burning fossil fuels and that energy/compliance costs may increase).
- A structural shift to alternative products/materials (e.g., non-metallic hydrants/valves) that reduce demand for traditional replacement parts.
- Realization of contingent liabilities if Tyco indemnitors become unable to perform (MD&A warns of reliance on Tyco indemnities and risk if they become financially unable).
- Successful renegotiation of multiple CBAs on favorable terms, or automation reducing labor exposure.
MWA news
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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
MWA income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
MWA: quick answers
- When does Mueller Water Products (MWA) report earnings next?
- Mueller Water Products's next results are projected for February 3, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is MWA's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 6.8M MWA shares were sold short, up 12.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. MWA short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded MWA?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in MWA by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed MWA trade
- Which well-known investors own MWA?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported MWA shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
MWA in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported MWA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $1.2M | −5.5% | Q2 2026 |