Molina Healthcare
MOHNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $206.35 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $205.32–$209.53 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 553.5K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 4 projected Projected for 2027-02-04 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $121.06–$244.89 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own MOH if Molina converts scale and state contracting expertise into durable, low-cost managed-care margins by winning and retaining Medicaid/Medicare contracts and deploying operating leverage and accretive M&A.
MOH price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Molina’s scale plus its high Medicaid RFP win rates will sustain premium revenue growth toward management’s long‑term 11–13% target over the medium term, driven by renewal wins and selective accretive acquisitions.HoldingMateriality: High
Revenue increased from $40.650B (FY2024) to $45.426B (FY2025) (revenue field values). If true, revenue growth funds margin recovery, supports leverage and justifies a growth multiple; if false, the stock is priced for growth that won’t materialize.
Watch: Legislative/policy impacts such as OBBBA (company cites expected 15–20% reduction for 1.2M expansion members) or state rate actions that materially reduce enrollment or rates.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue increased from $40.650B (FY2024) to $45.426B (FY2025) (revenue field values).
Open source ↗If consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) reverts toward Molina’s long‑term target range and G&A leverage continues, operating income will recover to near pre‑2025 levels; if elevated utilization/acuity persists, operating margins will remain structurally compressed.WeakeningMateriality: High
Operating income dropped from $1,707M (FY2024) to $781M (FY2025) (operating_income field values), showing margin sensitivity to MCR. Operating income/margin recovery is the path to normalized earnings and cash generation; failure means continued depressed profitability and valuation risk.
Watch: Sustained higher utilization and acuity across segments (MD&A cites increased utilization and acuity shifts driving MCR to 91.7%).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income dropped from $1,707M (FY2024) to $781M (FY2025) (operating_income field values), showing margin sensitivity to MCR.
Open source ↗Molina’s operating cash flow will re‑normalize to positive as reserve and claims timing stabilize and integration costs from acquisitions moderate; otherwise, persistent negative OCF would constrain buybacks, M&A and solvency risk.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow swung from positive $644M (FY2024) to negative $-535M (FY2025) (operating_cash_flow field values), showing volatility that could normalize. Cash flow determines the company’s ability to return capital, fund acquisitions, and service debt—critical to realizing the growth thesis.
Watch: Sustained higher claims lag or reserve strengthening that continues to consume cash (driver‑level, not just quarterly results).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow swung from positive $644M (FY2024) to negative $-535M (FY2025) (operating_cash_flow field values), showing volatility that could normalize.
Open source ↗Molina’s stated 90% Medicaid re‑procurement win rate and high new‑contract win rate create a relationship/regulatory moat that preserves pricing power and revenue base in core states.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Company disclosure of a 90% re‑procurement win rate that represented $14B in retained revenue and 80% new contract win rate worth $20B during the cited period (Item 1 / MD&A). A durable procurement moat reduces the risk of revenue loss from competition and makes organic growth and margin recovery realistically obtainable.
Watch: If major competitors win large state procurements (for example in Florida or other high‑premium states), that would demonstrate the moat is porous.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Company disclosure of a 90% re‑procurement win rate that represented $14B in retained revenue and 80% new contract win rate.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Molina’s scale plus its high Medicaid RFP win rates will sustain premium revenue growth toward management’s long‑term 11–13% target over the medium term, driven by renewal wins and selective accretive acquisitions. If true, revenue growth funds margin recovery, supports leverage and justifies a growth multiple; if false, the stock is priced for growth that won’t materialize.
If consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) reverts toward Molina’s long‑term target range and G&A leverage continues, operating income will recover to near pre‑2025 levels; if elevated utilization/acuity persists, operating margins will remain structurally compressed. Operating income/margin recovery is the path to normalized earnings and cash generation; failure means continued depressed profitability and valuation risk.
Molina’s operating cash flow will re‑normalize to positive as reserve and claims timing stabilize and integration costs from acquisitions moderate; otherwise, persistent negative OCF would constrain buybacks, M&A and solvency risk. Cash flow determines the company’s ability to return capital, fund acquisitions, and service debt—critical to realizing the growth thesis.
Molina’s stated 90% Medicaid re‑procurement win rate and high new‑contract win rate create a relationship/regulatory moat that preserves pricing power and revenue base in core states. A durable procurement moat reduces the risk of revenue loss from competition and makes organic growth and margin recovery realistically obtainable.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Molina converts scale and state contracting expertise into durable, low-cost managed-care margins by winning and retaining Medicaid/Medicare contracts and deploying operating leverage and accretive M&A.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Molina Healthcare
Where the evidence on Molina Healthcare disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Molina’s scale plus its high Medicaid RFP win rates will sustain premium revenue growth toward management’s long‑term 11–13% target over the medium term, driven by renewal wins and selective accretive acquisitions.
Molina’s operating cash flow will re‑normalize to positive as reserve and claims timing stabilize and integration costs from acquisitions moderate; otherwise, persistent negative OCF would constrain buybacks, M&A and solvency risk.
Molina’s stated 90% Medicaid re‑procurement win rate and high new‑contract win rate create a relationship/regulatory moat that preserves pricing power and revenue base in core states.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
If consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) reverts toward Molina’s long‑term target range and G&A leverage continues, operating income will recover to near pre‑2025 levels; if elevated utilization/acuity persists, operating margins will remain structurally compressed.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Molina Healthcare’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Molina Healthcare, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Molina Healthcare.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Molina Healthcare’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Operating loss, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 982 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 39% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Molina Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-06: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Molina Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-21: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Molina Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Legislative/policy impacts such as OBBBA (company cites expected 15–20% reduction for 1.2M expansion members) or state rate actions that materially reduce enrollment or rates.
- Sustained higher utilization and acuity across segments (MD&A cites increased utilization and acuity shifts driving MCR to 91.7%).
- Sustained higher claims lag or reserve strengthening that continues to consume cash (driver‑level, not just quarterly results).
- If major competitors win large state procurements (for example in Florida or other high‑premium states), that would demonstrate the moat is porous.
MOH news
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Financial statements
MOH income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
MOH: quick answers
- When does Molina Healthcare (MOH) report earnings next?
- Molina Healthcare's next results are projected for February 4, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 21, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is MOH's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 2.9M MOH shares were sold short, 5.59% of its shares outstanding, down 2.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. MOH short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded MOH?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 3 trades in MOH by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed MOH trade
- Which well-known investors own MOH?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported MOH shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Baupost Group (Seth Klarman), 2.7%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
MOH in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported MOH shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth KlarmanBaupost Group | 2.7% | $145M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $1.9M | +298.9% | Q2 2026 |