Miami International Holdings

MIAXNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$36.07
−$0.79 (−2.14%)Today 1M +20.03%
After hours$36.070.00%

Updated Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$36.86
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$36.00–$36.94
Regular-session low and high so far today.
824.3K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 24 projected
Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$29.06–$57.14
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own MIAX if its regulated exchange venues keep attracting order flow without buying it away through rebates, letting a mostly fixed technology and compliance platform convert volume into margin and cash.

MIAX price history

Latest price$36.07Today−$0.79 (-2.14%)
MIAX +21.57%S&P 500 -2.67%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • MIAX’s venue technology and exchange access remain compelling enough to attract incremental order flow without relying solely on uneconomic pricing incentives.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $1.041 billion in FY2023 to $1.140 billion in FY2024 and $1.364 billion in FY2025. If this holds, revenue growth reflects share capture and useful network effects; if it breaks, growth becomes expensive and fragile.

    Watch: Cboe, Nasdaq, or NYSE introduces fee schedules, routing economics, or functionality that causes brokers and market makers to shift flow away from MIAX venues.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $1.041 billion in FY2023 to $1.140 billion in FY2024 and $1.364 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • The exchange infrastructure has operating leverage: once MIAX covers fixed technology, regulatory, and surveillance costs, additional activity should convert into materially higher operating profit.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual operating income improved from a loss of $2.9 million in FY2023 and a loss of $2.8 million in FY2024 to positive $92.0 million in FY2025. This is the difference between a growing venue and a valuable exchange platform; loss of operating leverage would make revenue growth much less valuable.

    Watch: MIAX has to raise liquidity-provider rebates or cut access/transaction pricing to defend order flow, transferring scale benefits to customers.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income improved from a loss of $2.9 million in FY2023 and a loss of $2.8 million in.

    Open source ↗
  • MIAX’s exchange model has crossed into cash generation, so continued scale should fund growth internally rather than requiring external capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $49.2 million in FY2023 to positive $111.4 million in FY2024 and positive $167.8 million in FY2025. Self-funded growth improves resilience and reduces the risk that owners are diluted or balance-sheet constrained during market cycles.

    Watch: Working-capital needs tied to customer incentives, clearing, collateral, or regulatory deposits absorb cash as volume grows.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $49.2 million in FY2023 to positive $111.4 million in FY2024 and positive.

    Open source ↗
  • MIAX’s liquidity position gives it room to invest through competitive and regulatory cycles instead of being forced into unfavorable financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash and cash equivalents were $433.6 million at FY2025 year-end, up from $150.3 million at FY2024 year-end and $59.3 million at FY2023 year-end. A strong balance sheet can let MIAX keep spending on matching technology, connectivity, and regulatory capacity when weaker competitors would pull back.

    Watch: Large acquisitions, aggressive capital returns, or new-venue investments materially reduce cash before the acquired or launched assets produce returns.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash and cash equivalents were $433.6 million at FY2025 year-end, up from $150.3 million at FY2024 year-end and $59.3 million.

    Open source ↗
  • Operating gains must flow through to GAAP net income and per-share value; otherwise non-operating costs, taxes, financing structure, or dilution can offset the exchange platform’s progress.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 GAAP operating income was positive $92.0 million, but GAAP net income was a loss of $70.0 million, showing that below-operating-line items currently matter to equity owners. Owners ultimately need earnings and per-share compounding, not just higher venue revenue or positive operating income.

    Watch: Interest expense, preferred or other financing costs, taxes, or one-time IPO-related items persist instead of normalizing.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP operating income was positive $92.0 million, but GAAP net income was a loss of $70.0 million, showing that.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

MIAX’s venue technology and exchange access remain compelling enough to attract incremental order flow without relying solely on uneconomic pricing incentives. If this holds, revenue growth reflects share capture and useful network effects; if it breaks, growth becomes expensive and fragile.

The exchange infrastructure has operating leverage: once MIAX covers fixed technology, regulatory, and surveillance costs, additional activity should convert into materially higher operating profit. This is the difference between a growing venue and a valuable exchange platform; loss of operating leverage would make revenue growth much less valuable.

MIAX’s exchange model has crossed into cash generation, so continued scale should fund growth internally rather than requiring external capital. Self-funded growth improves resilience and reduces the risk that owners are diluted or balance-sheet constrained during market cycles.

MIAX’s liquidity position gives it room to invest through competitive and regulatory cycles instead of being forced into unfavorable financing. A strong balance sheet can let MIAX keep spending on matching technology, connectivity, and regulatory capacity when weaker competitors would pull back.

Operating gains must flow through to GAAP net income and per-share value; otherwise non-operating costs, taxes, financing structure, or dilution can offset the exchange platform’s progress. Owners ultimately need earnings and per-share compounding, not just higher venue revenue or positive operating income.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its regulated exchange venues keep attracting order flow without buying it away through rebates, letting a mostly fixed technology and compliance platform convert volume into margin and cash.

Evidence assessed Oct 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Miami International Holdings

Where the evidence on Miami International Holdings disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • MIAX’s venue technology and exchange access remain compelling enough to attract incremental order flow without relying solely on uneconomic pricing incentives.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The exchange infrastructure has operating leverage: once MIAX covers fixed technology, regulatory, and surveillance costs, additional activity should convert into materially higher operating profit.

    sec.gov ↗

  • MIAX’s exchange model has crossed into cash generation, so continued scale should fund growth internally rather than requiring external capital.

    sec.gov ↗

  • MIAX’s liquidity position gives it room to invest through competitive and regulatory cycles instead of being forced into unfavorable financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Operating gains must flow through to GAAP net income and per-share value; otherwise non-operating costs, taxes, financing structure, or dilution can offset the exchange platform’s progress.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Miami International Holdings’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Miami International Holdings, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Miami International Holdings.

peers+15%-13%+1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical +1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -13%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

Several kinds of break have stacked on Miami International Holdings at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Miami International Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Miami International Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-21: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Unregistered sale of equity securities.

    Miami International Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-22: Unregistered sale of equity securities. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Cboe, Nasdaq, or NYSE introduces fee schedules, routing economics, or functionality that causes brokers and market makers to shift flow away from MIAX venues.
  • MIAX has to raise liquidity-provider rebates or cut access/transaction pricing to defend order flow, transferring scale benefits to customers.
  • Working-capital needs tied to customer incentives, clearing, collateral, or regulatory deposits absorb cash as volume grows.
  • Large acquisitions, aggressive capital returns, or new-venue investments materially reduce cash before the acquired or launched assets produce returns.
  • Interest expense, preferred or other financing costs, taxes, or one-time IPO-related items persist instead of normalizing.

MIAX news

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Financial statements

MIAX income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

MIAX: quick answers

When does Miami International Holdings (MIAX) report earnings next?
Miami International Holdings's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is MIAX's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 7.1M MIAX shares were sold short, 7.10% of its shares outstanding, down 10.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. MIAX short interest history
Have members of Congress traded MIAX?
1 trade in MIAX has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed MIAX trade
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