Mobileye Global

MBLYNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$5.78
+$0.15 (+2.66%)Today 1M −20.70%
After hours$5.72−1.04%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$5.63
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$5.59–$5.91
Regular-session low and high so far today.
10.0M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$4.89–$14.33
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own MBLY if OEMs keep standardizing on its validated ADAS perception stack and higher-content autonomy products, but the stock only works if that recovery is not already fully priced in.

MBLY price history

Latest price$5.78Today+$0.15 (+2.66%)
MBLY -16.83%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • OEMs continue to rely on Mobileye’s validated ADAS stack for production programs, so normalized vehicle launches and inventory digestion should convert back into revenue growth rather than reveal permanent socket loss.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue recovered to $1.894 billion in FY2025 from $1.654 billion in FY2024. If this holds, FY2024 was a trough-like reset; if it breaks, Mobileye’s core franchise is structurally impaired.

    Watch: Major OEMs shift next-generation ADAS sourcing from Mobileye to in-house perception stacks.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue recovered to $1.894 billion in FY2025 from $1.654 billion in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Mobileye’s safety-critical perception software and purpose-built compute remain differentiated enough that OEM content growth does not require commodity-style pricing concessions.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit increased to $904 million in FY2025 from $741 million in FY2024. Gross-profit durability determines whether revenue recovery creates valuable growth or merely lower-margin volume.

    Watch: OEMs use competitive bids from NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Horizon Robotics, or Chinese ADAS vendors to force lower pricing on Mobileye programs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit increased to $904 million in FY2025 from $741 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Investment in higher-content assisted and autonomous-driving platforms must translate into reusable software leverage across OEM programs, rather than remain an expensive engineering option.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $440 million in FY2025 from $3.225 billion in FY2024. This is the bridge from promising technology to per-share value: without operating leverage, revenue growth can coexist with GAAP losses.

    Watch: OEM launches of higher-autonomy programs are delayed or scaled back because regulatory, cost, or consumer-adoption hurdles persist.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $440 million in FY2025 from $3.225 billion in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Mobileye’s capital-light, software-heavy production model can fund long automotive design cycles internally even while GAAP earnings are negative.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $602 million in FY2025. Positive internal cash generation reduces the need for dilutive financing and gives management time to wait for OEM programs to scale.

    Watch: Customer program delays force Mobileye to sustain elevated engineering support without matching production revenue.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $602 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • A net-cash balance sheet gives Mobileye strategic runway to keep investing through OEM program volatility without being forced into unfavorable financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash and cash equivalents were $1.836 billion at FY2025 year-end. The balance sheet protects the autonomy option and reduces downside from cyclical timing misses.

    Watch: Management commits large cash to acquisitions or programs that do not strengthen Mobileye’s OEM platform position.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash and cash equivalents were $1.836 billion at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

OEMs continue to rely on Mobileye’s validated ADAS stack for production programs, so normalized vehicle launches and inventory digestion should convert back into revenue growth rather than reveal permanent socket loss. If this holds, FY2024 was a trough-like reset; if it breaks, Mobileye’s core franchise is structurally impaired.

Mobileye’s safety-critical perception software and purpose-built compute remain differentiated enough that OEM content growth does not require commodity-style pricing concessions. Gross-profit durability determines whether revenue recovery creates valuable growth or merely lower-margin volume.

Investment in higher-content assisted and autonomous-driving platforms must translate into reusable software leverage across OEM programs, rather than remain an expensive engineering option. This is the bridge from promising technology to per-share value: without operating leverage, revenue growth can coexist with GAAP losses.

Mobileye’s capital-light, software-heavy production model can fund long automotive design cycles internally even while GAAP earnings are negative. Positive internal cash generation reduces the need for dilutive financing and gives management time to wait for OEM programs to scale.

A net-cash balance sheet gives Mobileye strategic runway to keep investing through OEM program volatility without being forced into unfavorable financing. The balance sheet protects the autonomy option and reduces downside from cyclical timing misses.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

OEMs keep standardizing on its validated ADAS perception stack and higher-content autonomy products, but the stock only works if that recovery is not already fully priced in.

Evidence assessed Oct 16, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Mobileye Global

Where the evidence on Mobileye Global stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 16, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • OEMs continue to rely on Mobileye’s validated ADAS stack for production programs, so normalized vehicle launches and inventory digestion should convert back into revenue growth rather than reveal permanent socket loss.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Mobileye’s safety-critical perception software and purpose-built compute remain differentiated enough that OEM content growth does not require commodity-style pricing concessions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Investment in higher-content assisted and autonomous-driving platforms must translate into reusable software leverage across OEM programs, rather than remain an expensive engineering option.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Mobileye’s capital-light, software-heavy production model can fund long automotive design cycles internally even while GAAP earnings are negative.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A net-cash balance sheet gives Mobileye strategic runway to keep investing through OEM program volatility without being forced into unfavorable financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Major OEMs shift next-generation ADAS sourcing from Mobileye to in-house perception stacks.

    sec.gov ↗

  • OEMs use competitive bids from NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Horizon Robotics, or Chinese ADAS vendors to force lower pricing on Mobileye programs.

    sec.gov ↗

  • OEM launches of higher-autonomy programs are delayed or scaled back because regulatory, cost, or consumer-adoption hurdles persist.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Mobileye Global

Loading the break-condition record for Mobileye Global.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Mobileye Global filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-10: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Mobileye Global filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-12: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Mobileye Global filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-23: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Major OEMs shift next-generation ADAS sourcing from Mobileye to in-house perception stacks.
  • OEMs use competitive bids from NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Horizon Robotics, or Chinese ADAS vendors to force lower pricing on Mobileye programs.
  • OEM launches of higher-autonomy programs are delayed or scaled back because regulatory, cost, or consumer-adoption hurdles persist.
  • Customer program delays force Mobileye to sustain elevated engineering support without matching production revenue.
  • Management commits large cash to acquisitions or programs that do not strengthen Mobileye’s OEM platform position.

MBLY news

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Financial statements

MBLY income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

MBLY: quick answers

Which well-known investors own MBLY?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported MBLY shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

MBLY in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported MBLY shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Cathie WoodARK Investment Management0.02%$2.7M+38.9%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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