Mattel
MATNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $16.00 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $15.90–$16.28 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 4.0M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 9 projected Projected for 2027-02-09 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $12.40–$22.48 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own MAT if Barbie, Hot Wheels and its broader toy IP can keep shelf relevance while the company turns those brands into higher-margin franchise economics rather than remaining a flat, cyclical toy manufacturer.
MAT price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Mattel’s core brand portfolio must remain culturally relevant enough with children, parents and retailers to hold shelf space in a mature toy market.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue was $5.35 billion in FY2025, still close to $5.38 billion in FY2024 and $5.44 billion in FY2023. If brand relevance holds, Mattel has a demand base to monetize; if it fades, revenue stability and bargaining power with retailers deteriorate.
Watch: Hasbro, LEGO, MGA Entertainment or Spin Master take sustained shelf space at major retailers during key holiday resets.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue was $5.35 billion in FY2025, still close to $5.38 billion in FY2024 and $5.44 billion in FY2023.
Open source ↗Mattel’s brand ownership and IP monetization must support pricing power and a richer mix, rather than requiring discounting to move product.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit was $2.61 billion in FY2025, above FY2023 gross profit of $2.58 billion and FY2022 gross profit of $2.48 billion. Gross-margin resilience is the clearest evidence that brands are creating economic value beyond commodity toy manufacturing.
Watch: Retailers force broader promotional allowances because consumer sell-through weakens.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit was $2.61 billion in FY2025, above FY2023 gross profit of $2.58 billion and FY2022 gross profit.
Open source ↗Mattel’s scale manufacturing, distribution and marketing capabilities must turn brand demand into operating leverage instead of absorbing it through higher promotion, freight, input or content costs.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income was $546.4 million in FY2025, showing the business remains profitable at scale. Without operating leverage, even durable brands may not translate into durable shareholder value.
Watch: Retail-channel competition forces Mattel to spend more on advertising and trade promotion to defend shelf space.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income was $546.4 million in FY2025, showing the business remains profitable at scale.
Open source ↗The seasonal toy model must continue converting earnings into cash so Mattel can fund brand investment, content initiatives and balance-sheet flexibility without relying on financial engineering.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $593.3 million in FY2025. Cash conversion determines whether the IP strategy can be funded internally through cycles.
Watch: Retailers push inventory risk back to Mattel through slower reorders, longer payment terms or higher returns.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $593.3 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Mattel’s liquidity must remain strong enough to protect brand investment and retailer execution through toy cycles, rather than forcing defensive cuts at the wrong time.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Cash and cash equivalents were $1.24 billion at FY2025 year-end. A strong cash position gives management room to invest in franchises when demand is soft; a liquidity squeeze would make the turnaround more fragile.
Watch: A prolonged toy-demand downturn consumes cash through inventory build and retailer concessions.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and cash equivalents were $1.24 billion at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Mattel’s core brand portfolio must remain culturally relevant enough with children, parents and retailers to hold shelf space in a mature toy market. If brand relevance holds, Mattel has a demand base to monetize; if it fades, revenue stability and bargaining power with retailers deteriorate.
Mattel’s brand ownership and IP monetization must support pricing power and a richer mix, rather than requiring discounting to move product. Gross-margin resilience is the clearest evidence that brands are creating economic value beyond commodity toy manufacturing.
Mattel’s scale manufacturing, distribution and marketing capabilities must turn brand demand into operating leverage instead of absorbing it through higher promotion, freight, input or content costs. Without operating leverage, even durable brands may not translate into durable shareholder value.
The seasonal toy model must continue converting earnings into cash so Mattel can fund brand investment, content initiatives and balance-sheet flexibility without relying on financial engineering. Cash conversion determines whether the IP strategy can be funded internally through cycles.
Mattel’s liquidity must remain strong enough to protect brand investment and retailer execution through toy cycles, rather than forcing defensive cuts at the wrong time. A strong cash position gives management room to invest in franchises when demand is soft; a liquidity squeeze would make the turnaround more fragile.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Barbie, Hot Wheels and its broader toy IP can keep shelf relevance while the company turns those brands into higher-margin franchise economics rather than remaining a flat, cyclical toy manufacturer.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Mattel
Where the evidence on Mattel disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 3, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 3 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Mattel’s core brand portfolio must remain culturally relevant enough with children, parents and retailers to hold shelf space in a mature toy market.
Mattel’s brand ownership and IP monetization must support pricing power and a richer mix, rather than requiring discounting to move product.
The seasonal toy model must continue converting earnings into cash so Mattel can fund brand investment, content initiatives and balance-sheet flexibility without relying on financial engineering.
Mattel’s liquidity must remain strong enough to protect brand investment and retailer execution through toy cycles, rather than forcing defensive cuts at the wrong time.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Mattel’s scale manufacturing, distribution and marketing capabilities must turn brand demand into operating leverage instead of absorbing it through higher promotion, freight, input or content costs.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Mattel’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Mattel, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Mattel.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Mattel’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Operating-margin compression, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 2,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 36% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Mattel filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-22: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Mattel filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-19: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Mattel filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-14: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Hasbro, LEGO, MGA Entertainment or Spin Master take sustained shelf space at major retailers during key holiday resets.
- Retailers force broader promotional allowances because consumer sell-through weakens.
- Retail-channel competition forces Mattel to spend more on advertising and trade promotion to defend shelf space.
- Retailers push inventory risk back to Mattel through slower reorders, longer payment terms or higher returns.
- A prolonged toy-demand downturn consumes cash through inventory build and retailer concessions.
MAT news
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Financial statements
MAT income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
MAT: quick answers
- When does Mattel (MAT) report earnings next?
- Mattel's next results are projected for February 9, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is MAT's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 27.9M MAT shares were sold short, 9.77% of its shares outstanding, down 0.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. MAT short interest history
- Which well-known investors own MAT?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported MAT shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
MAT in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported MAT shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $3.1M | +436.8% | Q2 2026 |
