LPL Financial Holdings

LPLANASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$301.62
−$6.89 (−2.23%)Today 1M −6.76%
After hours$301.620.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$308.51
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$301.08–$312.40
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.1M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 28 projected
Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$260.15–$400.16
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own LPLA if advisor-asset growth converts into cash and EPS rather than being absorbed by recruiting costs, integration spend, cash-sweep pressure, or leverage.

LPLA price history

Latest price$301.62Today−$6.89 (-2.23%)
LPLA -9.17%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Advisor demand for an independent, advisor-mediated platform remains strong enough for LPL to keep converting recruited practices and client assets into revenue without needing to own the end-client relationship like a wirehouse.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $7.72 billion in FY2021 to $16.99 billion in FY2025. If this holds, LPL remains a structural share gainer in wealth management; if it breaks, the core growth engine becomes just cyclical market beta and deal flow.

    Watch: Charles Schwab or Fidelity improves custody, technology, and economics enough that breakaway advisors bypass LPL and go directly RIA.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $7.72 billion in FY2021 to $16.99 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • LPL’s platform scale must give it enough operating leverage and vendor/service breadth to offset advisor payout competition and integration costs.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual net income was positive in each year from FY2021 through FY2025. If scale economics hold, revenue growth can compound earnings; if not, LPL becomes a low-margin asset aggregator.

    Watch: Advisor recruiting competition forces LPL to pay materially richer transition assistance or ongoing payouts to win and retain advisors.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual net income was positive in each year from FY2021 through FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • The business must convert accounting earnings into operating cash once transition, integration, and client-cash working-capital effects normalize; otherwise growth is costing more than it appears.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in FY2021, FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024. Owner value depends on distributable cash, not just reported revenue or EPS.

    Watch: Advisor transition assistance and acquisition-related payments become a permanent requirement to sustain growth.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in FY2021, FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • LPL can use balance-sheet capacity to support recruiting and consolidation, but the thesis weakens if leverage becomes the main way to sustain growth.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Assets increased from $13.32 billion at FY2024 year-end to $18.49 billion at FY2025 year-end. Debt-funded growth can raise near-term revenue while reducing resilience and per-share value in a downturn.

    Watch: Large acquisitions or recruiting packages require materially more borrowing while cash generation remains weak.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Assets increased from $13.32 billion at FY2024 year-end to $18.49 billion at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • Advisor and asset growth must translate into per-share earnings after integration costs, financing, and any dilution; otherwise scale is not compounding for shareholders.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS increased from $5.63 in FY2021 to $10.92 in FY2025. This separates a growing platform from a value-creating stock.

    Watch: Acquired or recruited advisors require ongoing subsidies that prevent operating leverage.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS increased from $5.63 in FY2021 to $10.92 in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Advisor demand for an independent, advisor-mediated platform remains strong enough for LPL to keep converting recruited practices and client assets into revenue without needing to own the end-client relationship like a wirehouse. If this holds, LPL remains a structural share gainer in wealth management; if it breaks, the core growth engine becomes just cyclical market beta and deal flow.

LPL’s platform scale must give it enough operating leverage and vendor/service breadth to offset advisor payout competition and integration costs. If scale economics hold, revenue growth can compound earnings; if not, LPL becomes a low-margin asset aggregator.

The business must convert accounting earnings into operating cash once transition, integration, and client-cash working-capital effects normalize; otherwise growth is costing more than it appears. Owner value depends on distributable cash, not just reported revenue or EPS.

LPL can use balance-sheet capacity to support recruiting and consolidation, but the thesis weakens if leverage becomes the main way to sustain growth. Debt-funded growth can raise near-term revenue while reducing resilience and per-share value in a downturn.

Advisor and asset growth must translate into per-share earnings after integration costs, financing, and any dilution; otherwise scale is not compounding for shareholders. This separates a growing platform from a value-creating stock.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

advisor-asset growth converts into cash and EPS rather than being absorbed by recruiting costs, integration spend, cash-sweep pressure, or leverage.

Evidence assessed Oct 19, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for LPL Financial Holdings

Where the evidence on LPL Financial Holdings disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 19, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 3 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Advisor demand for an independent, advisor-mediated platform remains strong enough for LPL to keep converting recruited practices and client assets into revenue without needing to own the end-client relationship like a wirehouse.

    sec.gov ↗

  • LPL’s platform scale must give it enough operating leverage and vendor/service breadth to offset advisor payout competition and integration costs.

    sec.gov ↗

  • LPL can use balance-sheet capacity to support recruiting and consolidation, but the thesis weakens if leverage becomes the main way to sustain growth.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Advisor and asset growth must translate into per-share earnings after integration costs, financing, and any dilution; otherwise scale is not compounding for shareholders.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • The business must convert accounting earnings into operating cash once transition, integration, and client-cash working-capital effects normalize; otherwise growth is costing more than it appears.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · LPL Financial Holdings

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed LPL Financial Holdings’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    LPL Financial Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    LPL Financial Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-04-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Charles Schwab or Fidelity improves custody, technology, and economics enough that breakaway advisors bypass LPL and go directly RIA.
  • Advisor recruiting competition forces LPL to pay materially richer transition assistance or ongoing payouts to win and retain advisors.
  • Advisor transition assistance and acquisition-related payments become a permanent requirement to sustain growth.
  • Large acquisitions or recruiting packages require materially more borrowing while cash generation remains weak.
  • Acquired or recruited advisors require ongoing subsidies that prevent operating leverage.

LPLA news

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Financial statements

LPLA income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

LPLA: quick answers

When does LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA) report earnings next?
LPL Financial Holdings's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is LPLA's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 2.4M LPLA shares were sold short, 3.11% of its shares outstanding, up 11.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. LPLA short interest history
Have members of Congress traded LPLA?
41 trades in LPLA have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed LPLA trade
Which well-known investors own LPLA?
3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported LPLA shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel), 2.1%; Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 1.4%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

LPLA in well-known investors’ portfolios

3 of 37 funds reported LPLA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Stephen MandelLone Pine Capital2.1%$343M−40.5%Q2 2026
Tom GaynerMarkel Group1.4%$173M+1.1%Q3 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$1.9MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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