Lowe's Companies

LOWNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$231.60
−$0.27 (−0.12%)Today 1M +24.66%
After hours$229.88−0.74%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$231.87
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$227.33–$231.66
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.7M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Nov 18 projected
Projected for 2026-11-18 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$178.45–$293.06
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own LOW if Lowe's sustains margin advantage and pro share against Home Depot and online rivals.

LOW price history

Latest price$231.60Today−$0.27 (-0.12%)
LOW +24.46%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Lowe's scale, category assortment and supplier purchasing power will keep product economics stable so gross margin (and therefore gross_profit as reported) does not deteriorate materially despite modest top‑line cycles.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    gross_profit = 28,885,000,000 USD (annual, period_end 2026-01-30) — roughly stable vs 27,877,000,000 USD in FY2025 despite a revenue trough and recovery. If gross margins hold, Lowe's converts sales into healthy gross_profit and operating income, underwriting cash returns to shareholders and supporting the valuation; if margins erode, cash flow and EPS growth will be at risk.

    Watch: The Home Depot aggressively expanding pro pricing/promotions (competitor taking pro share) that forces Lowe's to match prices and compress margins.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    gross_profit = 28,885,000,000 USD (annual, period_end 2026-01-30) — roughly stable vs 27,877,000,000 USD in FY2025 despite a revenue trough and.

    Open source ↗
  • Growth and revenue quality depend on holding or expanding Lowe's professional/contractor share and service/installation revenues — that mix raises ticket size and repeatability, thereby supporting stable top‑line and margins.HoldingMateriality: High

    revenue recovered to 86,286,000,000 USD in FY2026 from 83,674,000,000 USD in FY2025, indicating ability to regain sales after a dip. If pro and services mix grows, revenue is stickier and margins improve; if pro share slips to Home Depot or specialists, revenue growth will stall and margins will come under pressure.

    Watch: Home Depot expands pro services or better pro loyalty programs, winning contractor relationships.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    revenue recovered to 86,286,000,000 USD in FY2026 from 83,674,000,000 USD in FY2025, indicating ability to regain sales after a dip.

    Open source ↗
  • Lowe's consistently high operating cash flow is the engine that funds buybacks/dividends and supports EPS per share growth even when revenue growth is modest.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    operating_cash_flow = 9,864,000,000 USD (annual, period_end 2026-01-30), up from 9,625,000,000 USD in FY2025 and from 8,140,000,000 USD in FY2024 — consistent strong conversion to cash. If operating cash flow remains robust, the company can sustain shareholder returns and drive per‑share value; if cash flow weakens, continued buybacks will either stop or force balance‑sheet stress.

    Watch: A meaningful rise in capex or working capital (inventory builds) that consumes cash and limits buybacks.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow = 9,864,000,000 USD (annual, period_end 2026-01-30), up from 9,625,000,000 USD in FY2025 and from 8,140,000,000 USD in FY2024 —.

    Open source ↗
  • Lowe's negative stockholders' equity reflects aggressive capital returns and does not by itself impair operations so long as operating cash flow and liquidity remain strong; however, persistent negative equity combined with falling cash flow would constrain capital allocation and risk.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    equity = -9,917,000,000 USD (instant, period_end 2026-01-30) while operating_cash_flow = 9,864,000,000 USD (annual), showing cash generation remains strong despite negative equity. If negative equity remains a bookkeeping effect backed by strong cash generation, shareholders still benefit from returns; if it presages weakening cash flow or covenant risk, buybacks/dividends and strategic flexibility will be curtailed.

    Watch: A material reduction in operating cash flow (due to margin erosion or sales loss) that forces spending cuts or halts buybacks.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    equity = -9,917,000,000 USD (instant, period_end 2026-01-30) while operating_cash_flow = 9,864,000,000 USD (annual), showing cash generation remains strong despite negative.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Lowe's scale, category assortment and supplier purchasing power will keep product economics stable so gross margin (and therefore gross_profit as reported) does not deteriorate materially despite modest top‑line cycles. If gross margins hold, Lowe's converts sales into healthy gross_profit and operating income, underwriting cash returns to shareholders and supporting the valuation; if margins erode, cash flow and EPS growth will be at risk.

Growth and revenue quality depend on holding or expanding Lowe's professional/contractor share and service/installation revenues — that mix raises ticket size and repeatability, thereby supporting stable top‑line and margins. If pro and services mix grows, revenue is stickier and margins improve; if pro share slips to Home Depot or specialists, revenue growth will stall and margins will come under pressure.

Lowe's consistently high operating cash flow is the engine that funds buybacks/dividends and supports EPS per share growth even when revenue growth is modest. If operating cash flow remains robust, the company can sustain shareholder returns and drive per‑share value; if cash flow weakens, continued buybacks will either stop or force balance‑sheet stress.

Lowe's negative stockholders' equity reflects aggressive capital returns and does not by itself impair operations so long as operating cash flow and liquidity remain strong; however, persistent negative equity combined with falling cash flow would constrain capital allocation and risk. If negative equity remains a bookkeeping effect backed by strong cash generation, shareholders still benefit from returns; if it presages weakening cash flow or covenant risk, buybacks/dividends and strategic flexibility will be curtailed.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Lowe's sustains margin advantage and pro share against Home Depot and online rivals.

Evidence assessed Oct 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Lowes Companies

Where the evidence on Lowes Companies stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Lowe's scale, category assortment and supplier purchasing power will keep product economics stable so gross margin (and therefore gross_profit as reported) does not deteriorate materially despite modest top‑line cycles.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Growth and revenue quality depend on holding or expanding Lowe's professional/contractor share and service/installation revenues — that mix raises ticket size and repeatability, thereby supporting stable top‑line and margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Lowe's consistently high operating cash flow is the engine that funds buybacks/dividends and supports EPS per share growth even when revenue growth is modest.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Lowe's negative stockholders' equity reflects aggressive capital returns and does not by itself impair operations so long as operating cash flow and liquidity remain strong; however, persistent negative equity combined with falling cash flow would constrain capital allocation and risk.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • The Home Depot aggressively expanding pro pricing/promotions (competitor taking pro share) that forces Lowe's to match prices and compress margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Home Depot expands pro services or better pro loyalty programs, winning contractor relationships.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A meaningful rise in capex or working capital (inventory builds) that consumes cash and limits buybacks.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Lowes Companies’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Lowes Companies, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Lowes Companies.

peers+15%-20%-2%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -2% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -20%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Lowes Companies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-02: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Lowes Companies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-19: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Lowes Companies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-20: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • The Home Depot aggressively expanding pro pricing/promotions (competitor taking pro share) that forces Lowe's to match prices and compress margins.
  • Home Depot expands pro services or better pro loyalty programs, winning contractor relationships.
  • A meaningful rise in capex or working capital (inventory builds) that consumes cash and limits buybacks.
  • A material reduction in operating cash flow (due to margin erosion or sales loss) that forces spending cuts or halts buybacks.

LOW news

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Financial statements

LOW income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

LOW: quick answers

When does Lowes Companies (LOW) report earnings next?
Lowes Companies's next results are projected for November 18, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 19, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is LOW's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 11.1M LOW shares were sold short, 1.99% of its shares outstanding, up 2.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. LOW short interest history
Have members of Congress traded LOW?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 14 trades in LOW by 3 filers: 6 purchases and 8 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed LOW trade
Which well-known investors own LOW?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported LOW shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 1.1%. Fund portfolios

LOW in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported LOW shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Tom GaynerMarkel Group1.1%$140M+1.3%Q3 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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