Liberty Latin America

LILAKNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$10.30
+$0.33 (+3.31%)Today 1M +26.85%
After hours$10.300.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$9.97
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$9.87–$10.30
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.4M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 17 projected
Projected for 2027-02-17 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$4.61–$10.30
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own LILAK if Liberty Latin America turns a high-margin, infrastructure-owned subscriber base in the Caribbean & Latin America into durable cash flow, but its equity value hinges on executing debt reduction/ refinancing while avoiding regulatory funding reversals.

LILAK price history

Latest price$10.30Today+$0.33 (+3.31%)
LILAK +25.00%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • LILA's operating cash flow will continue to generate roughly the same mid‑to‑high hundreds of millions annually and remain sufficient to fund recurring capex and interest costs absent a major regulatory or macro shock.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities = 897,000,000 USD (2023). If true, the company can invest in networks and service debt without forced asset sales; if false, covenant breaches or distress refinancing become likely and dilute equity.

    Watch: A material FCC funding reduction or clawback for Puerto Rico/USVI that reduces revenues or triggers unexpected capex.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities = 897,000,000 USD (2023).

    Open source ↗
  • Cash flows and RGUs in Puerto Rico/USVI materially depend on FCC program support and meeting buildout milestones; missed milestones or reductions in transitional support will reduce cash flow and could trigger clawbacks.HoldingMateriality: High

    Business disclosure: reduced Stage 2 mobile support for Liberty Puerto Rico from ~$34M to ~$17M (first year) and to ~$9M (second year). A reduction or clawback of FCC funds is a leading, causal hit to segment cash flow and could force higher leverage or capex reallocation before consolidating results show the revenue decline.

    Watch: FCC implements a 5G fund or extends transitional support in a way that restores prior levels of funding.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Business disclosure: reduced Stage 2 mobile support for Liberty Puerto Rico from ~$34M to ~$17M (first year) and to ~$9M.

    Open source ↗
  • LILA's owned network infrastructure and licensed spectrum create a durable gross‑margin advantage and recurring revenue base that protects cash flow against modest competition.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Derived gross_profit ≈ 3,466,300,000 USD (2025) on revenue 4,442,200,000 USD indicates a high gross margin characteristic of infrastructure ownership. If gross margins stay high, management has room to absorb inflation and fund upgrades from operating cash; if margins compress due to competition or regulation, cash available for debt service falls quickly.

    Watch: Entry or rapid scale‑up of low‑cost fixed wireless or aggressive mobile pricing by large competitors in core markets.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Derived gross_profit ≈ 3,466,300,000 USD (2025) on revenue 4,442,200,000 USD indicates a high gross margin characteristic of infrastructure ownership.

    Open source ↗
  • High consolidated liabilities and restrictive subsidiary credit agreements materially limit LILA's strategic flexibility and create refinancing/covenant risk that can force non‑organic capital actions.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Liabilities = 11,162,400,000 USD (2025) with equity = 555,600,000 USD (2025), showing a highly leveraged balance sheet. If liabilities remain large relative to assets and covenant flexibility is limited, management may be forced to choose asset sales, dividend restrictions or expensive refinancing — all value‑destructive for equity holders.

    Watch: Successful refinancing on materially better terms that extends maturities and eases covenants.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Liabilities = 11,162,400,000 USD (2025) with equity = 555,600,000 USD (2025), showing a highly leveraged balance sheet.

    Open source ↗
  • Sustained recovery and stability in operating income (not just cash flow) is necessary to re‑rate the stock because operating_income volatility signals impairments, restructuring or margin pressure that the market discounts.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    OperatingIncomeLoss = 517,700,000 USD (2023) -> -76,800,000 USD (2024) -> 108,200,000 USD (2025), demonstrating volatility and partial recovery. If operating income stabilizes and grows, EV/EBITDA multiple expansion and deleveraging can create equity upside; if operating income remains volatile or negative, the market will price in higher restructuring risk and a lower multiple.

    Watch: Further one‑off impairments or restructuring charges reducing operating income.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    OperatingIncomeLoss = 517,700,000 USD (2023) -> -76,800,000 USD (2024) -> 108,200,000 USD (2025), demonstrating volatility and partial recovery.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

LILA's operating cash flow will continue to generate roughly the same mid‑to‑high hundreds of millions annually and remain sufficient to fund recurring capex and interest costs absent a major regulatory or macro shock. If true, the company can invest in networks and service debt without forced asset sales; if false, covenant breaches or distress refinancing become likely and dilute equity.

Cash flows and RGUs in Puerto Rico/USVI materially depend on FCC program support and meeting buildout milestones; missed milestones or reductions in transitional support will reduce cash flow and could trigger clawbacks. A reduction or clawback of FCC funds is a leading, causal hit to segment cash flow and could force higher leverage or capex reallocation before consolidating results show the revenue decline.

LILA's owned network infrastructure and licensed spectrum create a durable gross‑margin advantage and recurring revenue base that protects cash flow against modest competition. If gross margins stay high, management has room to absorb inflation and fund upgrades from operating cash; if margins compress due to competition or regulation, cash available for debt service falls quickly.

High consolidated liabilities and restrictive subsidiary credit agreements materially limit LILA's strategic flexibility and create refinancing/covenant risk that can force non‑organic capital actions. If liabilities remain large relative to assets and covenant flexibility is limited, management may be forced to choose asset sales, dividend restrictions or expensive refinancing — all value‑destructive for equity holders.

Sustained recovery and stability in operating income (not just cash flow) is necessary to re‑rate the stock because operating_income volatility signals impairments, restructuring or margin pressure that the market discounts. If operating income stabilizes and grows, EV/EBITDA multiple expansion and deleveraging can create equity upside; if operating income remains volatile or negative, the market will price in higher restructuring risk and a lower multiple.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Liberty Latin America turns a high-margin, infrastructure-owned subscriber base in the Caribbean & Latin America into durable cash flow, but its equity value hinges on executing debt reduction/ refinancing while avoiding regulatory funding reversals.

Evidence assessed Nov 8, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Liberty Latin America

Where the evidence on Liberty Latin America stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • LILA's operating cash flow will continue to generate roughly the same mid‑to‑high hundreds of millions annually and remain sufficient to fund recurring capex and interest costs absent a major regulatory or macro shock.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Cash flows and RGUs in Puerto Rico/USVI materially depend on FCC program support and meeting buildout milestones; missed milestones or reductions in transitional support will reduce cash flow and could trigger clawbacks.

    sec.gov ↗

  • LILA's owned network infrastructure and licensed spectrum create a durable gross‑margin advantage and recurring revenue base that protects cash flow against modest competition.

    sec.gov ↗

  • High consolidated liabilities and restrictive subsidiary credit agreements materially limit LILA's strategic flexibility and create refinancing/covenant risk that can force non‑organic capital actions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Sustained recovery and stability in operating income (not just cash flow) is necessary to re‑rate the stock because operating_income volatility signals impairments, restructuring or margin pressure that the market discounts.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A material FCC funding reduction or clawback for Puerto Rico/USVI that reduces revenues or triggers unexpected capex.

    sec.gov ↗

  • FCC implements a 5G fund or extends transitional support in a way that restores prior levels of funding.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Entry or rapid scale‑up of low‑cost fixed wireless or aggressive mobile pricing by large competitors in core markets.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Liberty Latin America

Loading the break-condition record for Liberty Latin America.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Liberty Latin America filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Liberty Latin America filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Liberty Latin America filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-15: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A material FCC funding reduction or clawback for Puerto Rico/USVI that reduces revenues or triggers unexpected capex.
  • FCC implements a 5G fund or extends transitional support in a way that restores prior levels of funding.
  • Entry or rapid scale‑up of low‑cost fixed wireless or aggressive mobile pricing by large competitors in core markets.
  • Successful refinancing on materially better terms that extends maturities and eases covenants.
  • Further one‑off impairments or restructuring charges reducing operating income.

LILAK news

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Financial statements

LILAK income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

LILAK: quick answers

When does Liberty Latin America (LILAK) report earnings next?
Liberty Latin America's next results are projected for February 17, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is LILAK's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 8.1M LILAK shares were sold short, up 7.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. LILAK short interest history
Which well-known investors own LILAK?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported LILAK shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks), 0.8%. Fund portfolios

LILAK in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported LILAK shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Howard MarksOaktree Capital Management0.82%$58.9M+31.5%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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