Liberty Global

LBTYANASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$10.64
+$0.38 (+3.70%)Today 1M +18.48%
After hours$10.640.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$10.26
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$10.03–$10.67
Regular-session low and high so far today.
4.8M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 17 projected
Projected for 2027-02-17 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$7.36–$13.52
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own LBTYA if Liberty Global is a regional broadband/pay-TV operator whose high gross-margin subscription business generates predictable cash flow that can fund fiber upgrades, selective growth investments and balance-sheet repair — provided the 2025 large accounting/impairment items.

LBTYA price history

Latest price$10.64Today+$0.38 (+3.70%)
LBTYA +23.43%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Recurring subscription sales and scale in Liberty’s networked services create predictable operating cash flow that can fund capex and debt paydown if sustained.HoldingMateriality: High

    operating_cash_flow: $2,165,900,000 (2023) -> $2,032,900,000 (2024) -> $1,211,100,000 (2025) — consistently positive cash generation despite decline. If OCF stays positive, Liberty can self-fund fiber/mobile investments and reduce leverage; if OCF erodes, the company will need asset sales, equity or more leverage, compressing returns.

    Watch: Sustained ARPU or subscriber declines driven by OTT competition or fixed-mobile bundles from large telcos (e.g., Vodafone/Orange) that reduce churn-protected revenue.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow: $2,165,900,000 (2023) -> $2,032,900,000 (2024) -> $1,211,100,000 (2025) — consistently positive cash generation despite decline.

    Open source ↗
  • High gross margins reflect capital-light, subscription economics on delivered services, providing scope for operating leverage once SG&A/other items normalize.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    gross_profit: $2,830,300,000 (2023) -> $2,891,200,000 (2024) -> $3,208,000,000 (2025) while revenue rose, implying gross margins ~69% (2023) -> ~67% (2024) -> ~66% (2025). Sustained gross margins create room to expand operating margin via cost discipline or revenue growth, feeding higher free cash flow and valuation re-rating.

    Watch: Increases in cost of goods sold (content, carriage) or network input costs that compress gross margin.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    gross_profit: $2,830,300,000 (2023) -> $2,891,200,000 (2024) -> $3,208,000,000 (2025) while revenue rose, implying gross margins ~69% (2023) -> ~67% (2024).

    Open source ↗
  • The large negative 2025 net income is driven by non‑operational, likely non-cash items (impairments/transaction costs/finance items); the investment case requires these not to become recurring.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    net_income: -$4,051,700,000 (2023) -> $1,588,000,000 (2024) -> -$7,138,100,000 (2025) — large volatility implying discrete items or accounting swings. If the 2025 GAAP loss is transitory, underlying economics still support value creation; if similar losses recur, they indicate structural asset impairment or sustained finance stress that destroys shareholder value.

    Watch: Recurring asset impairments, repeated large non-cash write-downs, or consistent high financing costs that persist across reporting periods.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    net_income: -$4,051,700,000 (2023) -> $1,588,000,000 (2024) -> -$7,138,100,000 (2025) — large volatility implying discrete items or accounting swings.

    Open source ↗
  • The balance sheet has a growing cash buffer that, together with positive operating cash flow, should be sufficient to meet near-term obligations and fund strategic moves provided there are no new large impairments or financing shocks.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    cash: $1,410,100,000 (2023) -> $1,816,300,000 (2024) -> $2,081,400,000 (2025) — steady increase in cash balances. A healthy cash position prevents forced asset sales or distress financing; a deterioration would force value-destructive decisions or dilution.

    Watch: Large near-term debt maturities or covenant breaches requiring refinancing at higher cost.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    cash: $1,410,100,000 (2023) -> $1,816,300,000 (2024) -> $2,081,400,000 (2025) — steady increase in cash balances.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Recurring subscription sales and scale in Liberty’s networked services create predictable operating cash flow that can fund capex and debt paydown if sustained. If OCF stays positive, Liberty can self-fund fiber/mobile investments and reduce leverage; if OCF erodes, the company will need asset sales, equity or more leverage, compressing returns.

High gross margins reflect capital-light, subscription economics on delivered services, providing scope for operating leverage once SG&A/other items normalize. Sustained gross margins create room to expand operating margin via cost discipline or revenue growth, feeding higher free cash flow and valuation re-rating.

The large negative 2025 net income is driven by non‑operational, likely non-cash items (impairments/transaction costs/finance items); the investment case requires these not to become recurring. If the 2025 GAAP loss is transitory, underlying economics still support value creation; if similar losses recur, they indicate structural asset impairment or sustained finance stress that destroys shareholder value.

The balance sheet has a growing cash buffer that, together with positive operating cash flow, should be sufficient to meet near-term obligations and fund strategic moves provided there are no new large impairments or financing shocks. A healthy cash position prevents forced asset sales or distress financing; a deterioration would force value-destructive decisions or dilution.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Liberty Global is a regional broadband/pay-TV operator whose high gross-margin subscription business generates predictable cash flow that can fund fiber upgrades, selective growth investments and balance-sheet repair — provided the 2025 large accounting/impairment items.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Liberty Global

Where the evidence on Liberty Global stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Recurring subscription sales and scale in Liberty’s networked services create predictable operating cash flow that can fund capex and debt paydown if sustained.

    sec.gov ↗

  • High gross margins reflect capital-light, subscription economics on delivered services, providing scope for operating leverage once SG&A/other items normalize.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The large negative 2025 net income is driven by non‑operational, likely non-cash items (impairments/transaction costs/finance items); the investment case requires these not to become recurring.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The balance sheet has a growing cash buffer that, together with positive operating cash flow, should be sufficient to meet near-term obligations and fund strategic moves provided there are no new large impairments or financing shocks.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Sustained ARPU or subscriber declines driven by OTT competition or fixed-mobile bundles from large telcos (e.g., Vodafone/Orange) that reduce churn-protected revenue.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Increases in cost of goods sold (content, carriage) or network input costs that compress gross margin.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Recurring asset impairments, repeated large non-cash write-downs, or consistent high financing costs that persist across reporting periods.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Liberty Global

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Liberty Global’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Liberty Global filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-14: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Liberty Global filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-01: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Liberty Global filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Sustained ARPU or subscriber declines driven by OTT competition or fixed-mobile bundles from large telcos (e.g., Vodafone/Orange) that reduce churn-protected revenue.
  • Increases in cost of goods sold (content, carriage) or network input costs that compress gross margin.
  • Recurring asset impairments, repeated large non-cash write-downs, or consistent high financing costs that persist across reporting periods.
  • Large near-term debt maturities or covenant breaches requiring refinancing at higher cost.

LBTYA news

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Financial statements

LBTYA income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

LBTYA: quick answers

When does Liberty Global (LBTYA) report earnings next?
Liberty Global's next results are projected for February 17, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 3, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is LBTYA's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 13.1M LBTYA shares were sold short, 7.65% of its shares outstanding, down 4.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. LBTYA short interest history
Have members of Congress traded LBTYA?
5 trades in LBTYA have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed LBTYA trade
Which well-known investors own LBTYA?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported LBTYA shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks), 1.4%. Fund portfolios

LBTYA in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported LBTYA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Howard MarksOaktree Capital Management1.4%$97.2MNo changeQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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