Karman Holdings

KRMNNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$44.69
+$0.78 (+1.78%)Today 1M +34.73%
After hours$43.90−1.77%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$43.91
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$42.83–$44.96
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.1M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 20 projected
Projected for 2027-01-20 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$29.34–$118.38
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own KRMN if Karman is a niche defense-and-space supplier whose value hinges on whether early design-and-test involvement in mission-critical systems becomes recurring program content with high margins and real cash conversion.

KRMN price history

Latest price$44.69Today+$0.78 (+1.78%)
KRMN +40.23%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Karman’s early role in designing, testing and manufacturing mission-critical missile, defense and space systems keeps it embedded as those high-priority programs move from development into production.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Item 1 Business describes Karman as specializing in upfront design, testing, manufacturing and sale of mission-critical systems for existing and emerging high-priority missile and defense, and space programs. If embedded program positions persist, revenue growth can be durable rather than one-time project work; if programs shift away or content is displaced, the growth runway compresses.

    Watch: U.S. defense or space procurement priorities shift away from the missile, defense or space programs where Karman has designed-in content.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Item 1 Business describes Karman as specializing in upfront design, testing, manufacturing and sale of mission-critical systems for existing and.

    Open source ↗
  • Mission-critical qualification and testing requirements allow Karman to earn aerospace-style value-added economics rather than commodity supplier pricing.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Item 1 Business frames Karman’s products as mission-critical systems, implying customers value reliability, qualification and engineering risk reduction. If qualification and reliability protect pricing, growth should carry attractive gross profit; if customers commoditize or rebid the work, incremental revenue will be less valuable.

    Watch: Prime customers force open-book pricing, aggressive rebids or dual-sourcing after Karman completes early design work.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Item 1 Business frames Karman’s products as mission-critical systems, implying customers value reliability, qualification and engineering risk reduction.

    Open source ↗
  • Karman’s integrated design-to-manufacturing model can scale without requiring proportional overhead, so program growth should translate into operating profit rather than being absorbed by engineering and factory complexity.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating income increased from $20.4 million in FY2022 to $72.9 million in FY2025. Operating leverage is what turns niche technical capability into owner earnings; if each program requires bespoke overhead, revenue growth will not compound per-share value.

    Watch: New missile or space awards require Karman to add engineering teams, test capacity or facilities ahead of volume, causing fixed costs to outrun revenue.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income increased from $20.4 million in FY2022 to $72.9 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Karman’s program growth must normalize into positive operating cash generation rather than being persistently consumed by inventory, receivables and milestone timing.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual net income was positive in FY2025 at $17.4 million, showing reported profitability exists. If cash conversion recovers, the company can fund growth internally; if not, shareholders face lower intrinsic value through debt, dilution or constrained program participation.

    Watch: Customer milestone terms push cash receipts later than production spending on missile, defense or space programs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual net income was positive in FY2025 at $17.4 million, showing reported profitability exists.

    Open source ↗
  • Karman’s balance sheet must remain strong enough to absorb defense-and-space program timing, qualification costs and working-capital swings without forcing value-destructive financing.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $196.0 million at FY2024 year-end to $382.7 million at FY2025 year-end. A mission-critical supplier can lose strategic flexibility if leverage or liquidity prevents it from funding long-cycle programs before cash receipts arrive.

    Watch: Debt-funded acquisitions or facility expansions increase fixed obligations before program cash flows arrive.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $196.0 million at FY2024 year-end to $382.7 million at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Karman’s early role in designing, testing and manufacturing mission-critical missile, defense and space systems keeps it embedded as those high-priority programs move from development into production. If embedded program positions persist, revenue growth can be durable rather than one-time project work; if programs shift away or content is displaced, the growth runway compresses.

Mission-critical qualification and testing requirements allow Karman to earn aerospace-style value-added economics rather than commodity supplier pricing. If qualification and reliability protect pricing, growth should carry attractive gross profit; if customers commoditize or rebid the work, incremental revenue will be less valuable.

Karman’s integrated design-to-manufacturing model can scale without requiring proportional overhead, so program growth should translate into operating profit rather than being absorbed by engineering and factory complexity. Operating leverage is what turns niche technical capability into owner earnings; if each program requires bespoke overhead, revenue growth will not compound per-share value.

Karman’s program growth must normalize into positive operating cash generation rather than being persistently consumed by inventory, receivables and milestone timing. If cash conversion recovers, the company can fund growth internally; if not, shareholders face lower intrinsic value through debt, dilution or constrained program participation.

Karman’s balance sheet must remain strong enough to absorb defense-and-space program timing, qualification costs and working-capital swings without forcing value-destructive financing. A mission-critical supplier can lose strategic flexibility if leverage or liquidity prevents it from funding long-cycle programs before cash receipts arrive.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Karman is a niche defense-and-space supplier whose value hinges on whether early design-and-test involvement in mission-critical systems becomes recurring program content with high margins and real cash conversion.

Evidence assessed Nov 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Karman Holdings

Where the evidence on Karman Holdings disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Karman’s early role in designing, testing and manufacturing mission-critical missile, defense and space systems keeps it embedded as those high-priority programs move from development into production.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Mission-critical qualification and testing requirements allow Karman to earn aerospace-style value-added economics rather than commodity supplier pricing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Karman’s integrated design-to-manufacturing model can scale without requiring proportional overhead, so program growth should translate into operating profit rather than being absorbed by engineering and factory complexity.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Karman’s balance sheet must remain strong enough to absorb defense-and-space program timing, qualification costs and working-capital swings without forcing value-destructive financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Karman’s program growth must normalize into positive operating cash generation rather than being persistently consumed by inventory, receivables and milestone timing.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Karman Holdings’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Karman Holdings, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Karman Holdings.

peers+15%-20%-2%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -2% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -20%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Karman Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Karman Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-16: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Karman Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-28: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • U.S. defense or space procurement priorities shift away from the missile, defense or space programs where Karman has designed-in content.
  • Prime customers force open-book pricing, aggressive rebids or dual-sourcing after Karman completes early design work.
  • New missile or space awards require Karman to add engineering teams, test capacity or facilities ahead of volume, causing fixed costs to outrun revenue.
  • Customer milestone terms push cash receipts later than production spending on missile, defense or space programs.
  • Debt-funded acquisitions or facility expansions increase fixed obligations before program cash flows arrive.

KRMN news

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Financial statements

KRMN income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

KRMN: quick answers

When does Karman Holdings (KRMN) report earnings next?
Karman Holdings's next results are projected for January 20, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is KRMN's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 19.4M KRMN shares were sold short, 14.6% of its shares outstanding, up 28.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. KRMN short interest history
Have members of Congress traded KRMN?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 3 trades in KRMN by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed KRMN trade
Which well-known investors own KRMN?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported KRMN shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

KRMN in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported KRMN shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.02%$5.7M+285.4%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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