Kemper
KMPRNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $34.39 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $33.48–$34.82 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 3 projected Projected for 2027-02-03 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $22.69–$41.74 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own KMPR if targeted auto underwriting and agent distribution produce durable cash earnings rather than another loss-cost cycle.
KMPR price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Kemper’s targeted auto underwriting reset can keep pricing ahead of loss-cost inflation rather than reverting to underpriced volume growth.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual net_income improved from -$286.6 million in FY2022 and -$272.1 million in FY2023 to +$317.8 million in FY2024 and +$143.3 million in FY2025. If it holds, earnings and book value can compound from a repaired base; if it breaks, Kemper can again report losses despite still writing billions of premiums.
Watch: Auto physical-damage, bodily-injury, or legal/social inflation accelerates faster than Kemper can reprice policies through state rate filings.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual net_income improved from -$286.6 million in FY2022 and -$272.1 million in FY2023 to +$317.8 million in FY2024 and.
Open source ↗Kemper’s agent and broker network continues to provide cost-effective access to targeted insurance customers who are not fully captured by direct-only channels.StrengtheningMateriality: High
The profile says Kemper serves over 4.5 million policies and is represented by more than 24,100 agents and brokers. If this channel remains productive, Kemper can selectively grow profitable policies; if agents shift away, the company may need to spend more on acquisition or accept weaker risks.
Watch: Independent agents place more business with competitors offering higher commissions, faster quoting, or broader underwriting appetite.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The profile says Kemper serves over 4.5 million policies and is represented by more than 24,100 agents and brokers.
Open source ↗The underwriting recovery is converting into real operating cash rather than only accounting earnings.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating_cash_flow improved from -$210.3 million in FY2022 and -$134.2 million in FY2023 to +$382.9 million in FY2024 and +$584.5 million in FY2025. Cash generation gives Kemper flexibility to support policyholder obligations, rebuild capital, and potentially return capital; weak cash conversion would make the turnaround lower quality.
Watch: Claims payments from prior accident years accelerate, revealing that the recent earnings recovery depended on reserve assumptions rather than cash economics.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating_cash_flow improved from -$210.3 million in FY2022 and -$134.2 million in FY2023 to +$382.9 million in FY2024 and.
Open source ↗Kemper maintains enough capital and balance-sheet resilience to keep writing profitable policies through insurance-cycle volatility without dilutive repair capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP stockholders' equity was $2.6814 billion at FY2025 year-end, versus $2.5052 billion at FY2023 year-end and far above $241.1 million at FY2022 year-end. For an insurer, capital adequacy protects franchise value; if capital is impaired, growth and shareholder returns can be constrained even if demand exists.
Watch: Adverse reserve development in auto claims consumes statutory capital and signals prior underwriting years were mispriced.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP stockholders' equity was $2.6814 billion at FY2025 year-end, versus $2.5052 billion at FY2023 year-end and far above $241.1 million.
Open source ↗Management continues prioritizing profitable risk selection over premium volume, so lower or slower revenue growth is acceptable only if margins and cash remain healthy.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual revenue declined from $5.7185 billion in FY2021 to $4.7897 billion in FY2025, yet GAAP net_income improved from -$123.7 million in FY2021 to +$143.3 million in FY2025. This prevents a false bullish read of revenue growth; Kemper creates value by underwriting profitably, not by expanding premiums at inadequate rates.
Watch: Kemper resumes aggressive new-business growth in inadequately priced auto segments to rebuild revenue.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue declined from $5.7185 billion in FY2021 to $4.7897 billion in FY2025, yet GAAP net_income improved from -$123.7.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Kemper’s targeted auto underwriting reset can keep pricing ahead of loss-cost inflation rather than reverting to underpriced volume growth. If it holds, earnings and book value can compound from a repaired base; if it breaks, Kemper can again report losses despite still writing billions of premiums.
Kemper’s agent and broker network continues to provide cost-effective access to targeted insurance customers who are not fully captured by direct-only channels. If this channel remains productive, Kemper can selectively grow profitable policies; if agents shift away, the company may need to spend more on acquisition or accept weaker risks.
The underwriting recovery is converting into real operating cash rather than only accounting earnings. Cash generation gives Kemper flexibility to support policyholder obligations, rebuild capital, and potentially return capital; weak cash conversion would make the turnaround lower quality.
Kemper maintains enough capital and balance-sheet resilience to keep writing profitable policies through insurance-cycle volatility without dilutive repair capital. For an insurer, capital adequacy protects franchise value; if capital is impaired, growth and shareholder returns can be constrained even if demand exists.
Management continues prioritizing profitable risk selection over premium volume, so lower or slower revenue growth is acceptable only if margins and cash remain healthy. This prevents a false bullish read of revenue growth; Kemper creates value by underwriting profitably, not by expanding premiums at inadequate rates.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
targeted auto underwriting and agent distribution produce durable cash earnings rather than another loss-cost cycle.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for KEMPER
Where the evidence on KEMPER stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 5, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Kemper’s targeted auto underwriting reset can keep pricing ahead of loss-cost inflation rather than reverting to underpriced volume growth.
Kemper’s agent and broker network continues to provide cost-effective access to targeted insurance customers who are not fully captured by direct-only channels.
The underwriting recovery is converting into real operating cash rather than only accounting earnings.
Kemper maintains enough capital and balance-sheet resilience to keep writing profitable policies through insurance-cycle volatility without dilutive repair capital.
Management continues prioritizing profitable risk selection over premium volume, so lower or slower revenue growth is acceptable only if margins and cash remain healthy.
Bear case: what would count against it
Auto physical-damage, bodily-injury, or legal/social inflation accelerates faster than Kemper can reprice policies through state rate filings.
Independent agents place more business with competitors offering higher commissions, faster quoting, or broader underwriting appetite.
Claims payments from prior accident years accelerate, revealing that the recent earnings recovery depended on reserve assumptions rather than cash economics.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · KEMPER
OptimistFi is watching KEMPER. No break-condition checks are on record yet — they accumulate as new filings are checked.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
KEMPER filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
KEMPER filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
KEMPER filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-21: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Auto physical-damage, bodily-injury, or legal/social inflation accelerates faster than Kemper can reprice policies through state rate filings.
- Independent agents place more business with competitors offering higher commissions, faster quoting, or broader underwriting appetite.
- Claims payments from prior accident years accelerate, revealing that the recent earnings recovery depended on reserve assumptions rather than cash economics.
- Adverse reserve development in auto claims consumes statutory capital and signals prior underwriting years were mispriced.
- Kemper resumes aggressive new-business growth in inadequately priced auto segments to rebuild revenue.
KMPR news
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Financial statements
KMPR income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
KMPR: quick answers
- When does KEMPER (KMPR) report earnings next?
- KEMPER's next results are projected for February 3, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 9, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is KMPR's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 5.5M KMPR shares were sold short, up 2.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. KMPR short interest history