JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$344.10
+$2.03 (+0.59%)Today 1M +3.34%

Updated Nov 11, 3:11 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

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Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
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Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
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Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$342.07
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$340.82–$344.59
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.9M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 3:11 PM ET.
Jan 12 projected
Projected for 2027-01-12 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$279.10–$366.50
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own JPM if that scale keeps producing stable net income, manageable cash-flow volatility, and regulatory capital that permits buybacks/dividends.

JPM price history

Latest price$344.10Today+$2.03 (+0.59%)
JPM +2.96%S&P 500 -2.34%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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INVESTMENT THESIS

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • JPM’s size and diversified business mix will continue to translate balance-sheet growth into steady top-line revenue because revenue has risen alongside assets through recent cycles.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    revenue grew from 128,695,000,000 (2022) to 182,447,000,000 (2025). If true, revenue resilience cushions earnings through cycle swings and justifies premium for scale; if false, cyclicality or concentrated losses will expose earnings and cut capital returns.

    Watch: a prolonged capital-markets downturn that collapses trading and IB fees.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    revenue grew from 128,695,000,000 (2022) to 182,447,000,000 (2025).

    Open source ↗
  • JPM’s large equity capital base gives the firm the buffer to absorb shocks and sustain shareholder returns (buybacks/dividends), enabling EPS compounding over time.HoldingMateriality: High

    stockholders' equity increased from 292,332,000,000 (2022) to 362,438,000,000 (2025). If equity is sufficient and losses manageable, the bank can continue buybacks/dividends that support EPS; if capital is impaired, returns will be cut and EPS arrested.

    Watch: a major credit-cycle shock or large one-off loss that materially reduces regulatory capital.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    stockholders' equity increased from 292,332,000,000 (2022) to 362,438,000,000 (2025).

    Open source ↗
  • JPM’s operating cash flow is highly sensitive to balance‑sheet and market liquidity movements; persistent large negative swings in operating_cash_flow will constrain capital deployment and shareholder returns even if GAAP earnings remain positive.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    operating_cash_flow swung from 107,119,000,000 (2022) to 12,974,000,000 (2023) to -42,012,000,000 (2024) to -147,782,000,000 (2025). If cash-flow volatility normalizes, capital returns and investment are feasible; if volatility persists, the firm may need to hoard liquidity, slow buybacks, or raise capital.

    Watch: systemic deposit outflows or market liquidity shock that force sustained negative cash flow.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow swung from 107,119,000,000 (2022) to 12,974,000,000 (2023) to -42,012,000,000 (2024) to -147,782,000,000 (2025).

    Open source ↗
  • Continued expansion of JPM’s asset base will be the primary lever for future net-interest and fee income growth; as long as asset growth does not come with ROA or margin erosion, top-line expansion should continue.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    assets expanded from 3,665,743,000,000 (2022) to 4,424,900,000,000 (2025) while revenue increased. If assets grow with preserved yields and credit performance, revenue and net income rise; if asset growth happens at lower yields or with poorer credit, margins and earnings will suffer.

    Watch: competition for loans or deposits pushing yields down.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    assets expanded from 3,665,743,000,000 (2022) to 4,424,900,000,000 (2025) while revenue increased.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

JPM’s size and diversified business mix will continue to translate balance-sheet growth into steady top-line revenue because revenue has risen alongside assets through recent cycles. If true, revenue resilience cushions earnings through cycle swings and justifies premium for scale; if false, cyclicality or concentrated losses will expose earnings and cut capital returns.

JPM’s large equity capital base gives the firm the buffer to absorb shocks and sustain shareholder returns (buybacks/dividends), enabling EPS compounding over time. If equity is sufficient and losses manageable, the bank can continue buybacks/dividends that support EPS; if capital is impaired, returns will be cut and EPS arrested.

JPM’s operating cash flow is highly sensitive to balance‑sheet and market liquidity movements; persistent large negative swings in operating_cash_flow will constrain capital deployment and shareholder returns even if GAAP earnings remain positive. If cash-flow volatility normalizes, capital returns and investment are feasible; if volatility persists, the firm may need to hoard liquidity, slow buybacks, or raise capital.

Continued expansion of JPM’s asset base will be the primary lever for future net-interest and fee income growth; as long as asset growth does not come with ROA or margin erosion, top-line expansion should continue. If assets grow with preserved yields and credit performance, revenue and net income rise; if asset growth happens at lower yields or with poorer credit, margins and earnings will suffer.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

that scale keeps producing stable net income, manageable cash-flow volatility, and regulatory capital that permits buybacks/dividends.

Evidence assessed Oct 14, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for JPMorgan Chase & Co

Where the evidence on JPMorgan Chase & Co stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 14, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • JPM’s size and diversified business mix will continue to translate balance-sheet growth into steady top-line revenue because revenue has risen alongside assets through recent cycles.

    sec.gov ↗

  • JPM’s large equity capital base gives the firm the buffer to absorb shocks and sustain shareholder returns (buybacks/dividends), enabling EPS compounding over time.

    sec.gov ↗

  • JPM’s operating cash flow is highly sensitive to balance‑sheet and market liquidity movements; persistent large negative swings in operating_cash_flow will constrain capital deployment and shareholder returns even if GAAP earnings remain positive.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Continued expansion of JPM’s asset base will be the primary lever for future net-interest and fee income growth; as long as asset growth does not come with ROA or margin erosion, top-line expansion should continue.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • a prolonged capital-markets downturn that collapses trading and IB fees.

    sec.gov ↗

  • a major credit-cycle shock or large one-off loss that materially reduces regulatory capital.

    sec.gov ↗

  • systemic deposit outflows or market liquidity shock that force sustained negative cash flow.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · JPMorgan Chase & Co

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed JPMorgan Chase & Co’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. MIXED
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    JPMorgan Chase & Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-13: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. MIXED
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    JPMorgan Chase & Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-13: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. MIXED
    Other material event.

    JPMorgan Chase & Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-23: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

RISKS / FALSIFIERS

What could break the thesis

  • a prolonged capital-markets downturn that collapses trading and IB fees.
  • a major credit-cycle shock or large one-off loss that materially reduces regulatory capital.
  • systemic deposit outflows or market liquidity shock that force sustained negative cash flow.
  • competition for loans or deposits pushing yields down.

JPM news

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

JPM income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

JPM: quick answers

When does JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) report earnings next?
JPMorgan Chase & Co's next results are projected for January 12, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 13, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is JPM's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 23.7M JPM shares were sold short, 0.89% of its shares outstanding, down 7.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. JPM short interest history
Have members of Congress traded JPM?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 8 trades in JPM by 4 filers: 3 purchases and 5 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed JPM trade
Which well-known investors own JPM?
4 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported JPM shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Viking Global Investors (Andreas Halvorsen), 2.7%; Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.7%; Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.5%. Fund portfolios

JPM in well-known investors’ portfolios

4 of 37 funds reported JPM shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors2.7%$949M+7.2%Q2 2026
Tom GaynerMarkel Group0.65%$83.6MNo changeQ3 2026
George SorosSoros Fund Management0.48%$38.7MNo changeQ2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.03%$7.7MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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