The St. Joe Company

JOENYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$71.82
−$1.09 (−1.49%)Today 1M +12.41%
After hours$73.00+1.64%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$72.91
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$71.43–$72.92
Regular-session low and high so far today.
125.6K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 24 projected
Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$55.61–$75.66
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own JOE if St. Joe converts a large, entitled Northwest-Florida land position into high-margin homesites, commercial parcels and hospitality assets while using JV partners and amenity-driven demand to generate recurring cash flow and monetize upside.

JOE price history

Latest price$71.82Today−$1.09 (-1.49%)
JOE +10.40%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

3 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • St. Joe's entitlement + amenity strategy will continue converting owned land into high-margin homesite and commercial sales, sustaining its real-estate gross margins and powering revenue growth.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    MD&A: Real estate gross profit of $118.9M in 2025 with ~50.8% real-estate gross margin (2025 MD&A). If true, development margins keep EBITDA and cash conversion high and justify premium multiples; if false, revenue and margins compress as lots sell at discounts or slow.

    Watch: A sustained regional homebuilder demand slump that reduces lot purchase commitments or triggers cancellations.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    MD&A: Real estate gross profit of $118.9M in 2025 with ~50.8% real-estate gross margin (2025 MD&A).

    Open source ↗
  • Watersound Club memberships, hotel operations and leasing growth will produce steadily rising recurring operating cash that stabilizes earnings and captures more of the development-created value.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Fundamentals: operating_cash_flow rose to $190,696,000 in FY2025 from $107,993,000 in FY2024. Recurring hospitality and leasing cash reduces earnings cyclicality and increases free cash available for development, JV co-investment or buybacks; if it falls, cash conversion and valuation support weaken.

    Watch: A multi-quarter tourism or local membership decline that reduces occupancy, dues and ancillary spending.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Fundamentals: operating_cash_flow rose to $190,696,000 in FY2025 from $107,993,000 in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • A JV-heavy development/monetization strategy lets St. Joe accelerate commercial and hospitality asset sales while limiting on-balance-sheet leverage, preserving flexibility and ROE.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Fundamentals: liabilities declined from $825,040,000 (FY2023) to $742,801,000 (FY2025). If JVs continue to fund and buy down risk, St. Joe can monetize parcel value without significant debt; if JV access tightens, St. Joe may need to fund projects and leverage the balance sheet, reducing returns.

    Watch: JV partners withdrawing or demanding higher equity returns, forcing St. Joe to recapitalize projects.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Fundamentals: liabilities declined from $825,040,000 (FY2023) to $742,801,000 (FY2025).

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

St. Joe's entitlement + amenity strategy will continue converting owned land into high-margin homesite and commercial sales, sustaining its real-estate gross margins and powering revenue growth. If true, development margins keep EBITDA and cash conversion high and justify premium multiples; if false, revenue and margins compress as lots sell at discounts or slow.

Watersound Club memberships, hotel operations and leasing growth will produce steadily rising recurring operating cash that stabilizes earnings and captures more of the development-created value. Recurring hospitality and leasing cash reduces earnings cyclicality and increases free cash available for development, JV co-investment or buybacks; if it falls, cash conversion and valuation support weaken.

A JV-heavy development/monetization strategy lets St. Joe accelerate commercial and hospitality asset sales while limiting on-balance-sheet leverage, preserving flexibility and ROE. If JVs continue to fund and buy down risk, St. Joe can monetize parcel value without significant debt; if JV access tightens, St. Joe may need to fund projects and leverage the balance sheet, reducing returns.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

St. Joe converts a large, entitled Northwest-Florida land position into high-margin homesites, commercial parcels and hospitality assets while using JV partners and amenity-driven demand to generate recurring cash flow and monetize upside.

Evidence assessed Nov 7, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for ST JOE Co

Where the evidence on ST JOE Co stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • St. Joe's entitlement + amenity strategy will continue converting owned land into high-margin homesite and commercial sales, sustaining its real-estate gross margins and powering revenue growth.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Watersound Club memberships, hotel operations and leasing growth will produce steadily rising recurring operating cash that stabilizes earnings and captures more of the development-created value.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A JV-heavy development/monetization strategy lets St. Joe accelerate commercial and hospitality asset sales while limiting on-balance-sheet leverage, preserving flexibility and ROE.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A sustained regional homebuilder demand slump that reduces lot purchase commitments or triggers cancellations.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A multi-quarter tourism or local membership decline that reduces occupancy, dues and ancillary spending.

    sec.gov ↗

  • JV partners withdrawing or demanding higher equity returns, forcing St. Joe to recapitalize projects.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · ST JOE Co

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed ST JOE Co’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    ST JOE Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    ST JOE Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    ST JOE Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-12: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A sustained regional homebuilder demand slump that reduces lot purchase commitments or triggers cancellations.
  • A multi-quarter tourism or local membership decline that reduces occupancy, dues and ancillary spending.
  • JV partners withdrawing or demanding higher equity returns, forcing St. Joe to recapitalize projects.

JOE news

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Financial statements

JOE income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

JOE: quick answers

When does ST JOE Co (JOE) report earnings next?
ST JOE Co's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is JOE's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 846,714 JOE shares were sold short, 1.50% of its shares outstanding, down 17.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. JOE short interest history
Have members of Congress traded JOE?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in JOE by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed JOE trade
Which well-known investors own JOE?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported JOE shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

JOE in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported JOE shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.00%$405KNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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