James Hardie Industries

JHXNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$28.43
−$0.62 (−2.13%)Today 1M +15.64%
After hours$28.47+0.14%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$29.05
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$28.31–$29.25
Regular-session low and high so far today.
11.9M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 28 projected
Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$16.46–$31.43
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own JHX if fiber-cement and durable-exterior adoption plus the enlarged platform restore margins and cash conversion, it compounds; if competition or integration complexity commoditizes the growth, it does not.

JHX price history

Latest price$28.43Today−$0.62 (-2.13%)
JHX +13.88%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Builders, remodelers and homeowners will keep specifying James Hardie’s durable exterior products over vinyl, stucco, wood and engineered-wood substitutes, so housing and repair/remodel demand continues to translate into company sales.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $4.8358 billion in FY2026 from $3.8775 billion in FY2025. If specification pull holds, revenue can grow without relying only on market cyclicality; if it breaks, James Hardie becomes a more ordinary building-products supplier.

    Watch: LP Building Solutions or other engineered-wood competitors win national builder specifications by offering acceptable durability at lower installed cost.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $4.8358 billion in FY2026 from $3.8775 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Product differentiation and manufacturing/process capability will preserve premium pricing through raw-material, labor and freight cycles rather than forcing James Hardie into commodity price competition.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit increased to $1.7296 billion in FY2026 from $1.5050 billion in FY2025. This determines whether growth is valuable: premium demand only creates owner value if gross profit dollars and margins are protected.

    Watch: Cement, pulp, energy or freight inflation accelerates while builders and distributors reject price increases.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit increased to $1.7296 billion in FY2026 from $1.5050 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • The enlarged exterior-products platform will create operating leverage rather than letting integration costs, SG&A and manufacturing complexity absorb the benefits of scale.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    The company remained profitable on a GAAP operating basis, with FY2026 annual operating income of $447.6 million. If scale produces operating leverage, earnings can recover faster than revenue; if not, the company may be bigger but lower quality.

    Watch: Integration of recently added exterior/outdoor-products operations runs behind plan or requires more spending than expected.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The company remained profitable on a GAAP operating basis, with FY2026 annual operating income of $447.6 million.

    Open source ↗
  • James Hardie’s manufacturing model will continue converting earnings into operating cash flow sufficient to fund capacity, integration needs and balance-sheet obligations.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $589.8 million in FY2026. Cash conversion is what turns the business advantage into financial flexibility; if it weakens, growth may require debt, dilution or lower reinvestment.

    Watch: Distributors destock or demand longer payment terms, causing working capital to consume cash.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $589.8 million in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • Capital allocation will create per-share value only if the much larger asset base earns adequate returns, not merely higher sales from acquired or expanded operations.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual diluted EPS remained positive at $0.19 in FY2026. Owners benefit from expansion only if incremental assets earn attractive returns after financing and integration costs.

    Watch: Acquired assets fail to generate expected synergies or cross-selling benefits.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual diluted EPS remained positive at $0.19 in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Builders, remodelers and homeowners will keep specifying James Hardie’s durable exterior products over vinyl, stucco, wood and engineered-wood substitutes, so housing and repair/remodel demand continues to translate into company sales. If specification pull holds, revenue can grow without relying only on market cyclicality; if it breaks, James Hardie becomes a more ordinary building-products supplier.

Product differentiation and manufacturing/process capability will preserve premium pricing through raw-material, labor and freight cycles rather than forcing James Hardie into commodity price competition. This determines whether growth is valuable: premium demand only creates owner value if gross profit dollars and margins are protected.

The enlarged exterior-products platform will create operating leverage rather than letting integration costs, SG&A and manufacturing complexity absorb the benefits of scale. If scale produces operating leverage, earnings can recover faster than revenue; if not, the company may be bigger but lower quality.

James Hardie’s manufacturing model will continue converting earnings into operating cash flow sufficient to fund capacity, integration needs and balance-sheet obligations. Cash conversion is what turns the business advantage into financial flexibility; if it weakens, growth may require debt, dilution or lower reinvestment.

Capital allocation will create per-share value only if the much larger asset base earns adequate returns, not merely higher sales from acquired or expanded operations. Owners benefit from expansion only if incremental assets earn attractive returns after financing and integration costs.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

fiber-cement and durable-exterior adoption plus the enlarged platform restore margins and cash conversion, it compounds; if competition or integration complexity commoditizes the growth, it does not.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for James Hardie Industries

Where the evidence on James Hardie Industries disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 2 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Builders, remodelers and homeowners will keep specifying James Hardie’s durable exterior products over vinyl, stucco, wood and engineered-wood substitutes, so housing and repair/remodel demand continues to translate into company sales.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Product differentiation and manufacturing/process capability will preserve premium pricing through raw-material, labor and freight cycles rather than forcing James Hardie into commodity price competition.

    sec.gov ↗

  • James Hardie’s manufacturing model will continue converting earnings into operating cash flow sufficient to fund capacity, integration needs and balance-sheet obligations.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • The enlarged exterior-products platform will create operating leverage rather than letting integration costs, SG&A and manufacturing complexity absorb the benefits of scale.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Capital allocation will create per-share value only if the much larger asset base earns adequate returns, not merely higher sales from acquired or expanded operations.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in James Hardie Industries’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on James Hardie Industries, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for James Hardie Industries.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    James Hardie Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-01: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Material modification to security holder rights.

    James Hardie Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-21: Material modification to security holder rights. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    James Hardie Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-20: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • LP Building Solutions or other engineered-wood competitors win national builder specifications by offering acceptable durability at lower installed cost.
  • Cement, pulp, energy or freight inflation accelerates while builders and distributors reject price increases.
  • Integration of recently added exterior/outdoor-products operations runs behind plan or requires more spending than expected.
  • Distributors destock or demand longer payment terms, causing working capital to consume cash.
  • Acquired assets fail to generate expected synergies or cross-selling benefits.

JHX news

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Financial statements

JHX income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

JHX: quick answers

When does James Hardie Industries (JHX) report earnings next?
James Hardie Industries's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is JHX's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 22.9M JHX shares were sold short, 3.93% of its shares outstanding, down 11.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. JHX short interest history
Have members of Congress traded JHX?
6 trades in JHX have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed JHX trade
Which well-known investors own JHX?
2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported JHX shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: D1 Capital Partners (Dan Sundheim), 2.1%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

JHX in well-known investors’ portfolios

2 of 37 funds reported JHX shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners2.1%$721M−2.7%Q2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.03%$6.9MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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