John B. Sanfilippo & Son
JBSSNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $56.11 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $55.51–$56.99 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 154.6K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 28 projected Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $50.73–$92.08 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own JBSS if JBSS is a cash-generative but commodity-exposed nut platform whose value depends on passing crop-cost volatility through retail and private-label channels while keeping plants full and working capital under control.
JBSS price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
JBSS’s procurement scale and customer relationships allow it to pass a meaningful share of nut-cost volatility through to customers without losing too much shelf space or volume.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit was $211.2 million in FY2026, close to $211.6 million in FY2023 despite materially higher revenue. If this holds, commodity inflation is survivable and profit dollars remain durable; if it breaks, revenue can rise while owner earnings fall.
Watch: Large retailers such as Walmart, Costco, Kroger or other club/grocery customers re-bid nut programs to lower-cost packers and refuse further price increases.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit was $211.2 million in FY2026, close to $211.6 million in FY2023 despite materially higher revenue.
Open source ↗Retail and commercial customers keep using JBSS because outsourced nut sourcing, processing and packaging are operationally complex, supporting recurring demand rather than one-off commodity trading.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue rose each year from $999.7 million in FY2023 to $1.07 billion in FY2024, $1.11 billion in FY2025 and $1.18 billion in FY2026. If recurring demand holds, JBSS can compound slowly through volume, mix and price; if customers view it as interchangeable, bids reset economics downward.
Watch: A major grocery, club or mass-channel customer consolidates nut sourcing with another processor or brings more packaging in-house.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue rose each year from $999.7 million in FY2023 to $1.07 billion in FY2024, $1.11 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗JBSS’s manufacturing and packaging scale should convert stable nut demand into consistent operating profit as long as plant utilization and SG&A discipline offset labor, freight and input-cost pressure.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income has remained in a relatively tight band: $90.2 million in FY2023, $85.2 million in FY2024, $84.7 million in FY2025 and $89.2 million in FY2026. Operating leverage is what turns a low-growth food processor into a value creator; if utilization falls, earnings can decline even with stable sales.
Watch: Loss of a large private-label or commercial ingredient program leaves processing capacity underutilized.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income has remained in a relatively tight band: $90.2 million in FY2023, $85.2 million in FY2024, $84.7.
Open source ↗The business creates owner value only if management navigates nut inventory cycles so accounting earnings convert into operating cash over a full crop cycle.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow rebounded to $123.8 million in FY2026 after falling to $30.5 million in FY2025. This determines whether reported earnings can fund debt reduction, dividends, buybacks or reinvestment rather than being trapped in inventory.
Watch: A sharp rise in almond, peanut or walnut prices forces JBSS to carry higher-cost inventory for longer than customer payment terms allow.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow rebounded to $123.8 million in FY2026 after falling to $30.5 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗JBSS has enough balance-sheet capacity to finance seasonal inventory and commodity swings, but that flexibility would erode if liabilities keep rising faster than durable earnings power.HoldingMateriality: Medium
FY2026 liabilities were $278.6 million versus FY2026 equity of $379.9 million, indicating the company was not funded primarily by liabilities at year-end. A processor with thin margins needs financial flexibility; if leverage rises into a commodity downturn, equity holders bear more downside.
Watch: Sustained commodity inflation forces higher revolver usage or supplier financing before price increases are collected from customers.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2026 liabilities were $278.6 million versus FY2026 equity of $379.9 million, indicating the company was not funded primarily by liabilities.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
JBSS’s procurement scale and customer relationships allow it to pass a meaningful share of nut-cost volatility through to customers without losing too much shelf space or volume. If this holds, commodity inflation is survivable and profit dollars remain durable; if it breaks, revenue can rise while owner earnings fall.
Retail and commercial customers keep using JBSS because outsourced nut sourcing, processing and packaging are operationally complex, supporting recurring demand rather than one-off commodity trading. If recurring demand holds, JBSS can compound slowly through volume, mix and price; if customers view it as interchangeable, bids reset economics downward.
JBSS’s manufacturing and packaging scale should convert stable nut demand into consistent operating profit as long as plant utilization and SG&A discipline offset labor, freight and input-cost pressure. Operating leverage is what turns a low-growth food processor into a value creator; if utilization falls, earnings can decline even with stable sales.
The business creates owner value only if management navigates nut inventory cycles so accounting earnings convert into operating cash over a full crop cycle. This determines whether reported earnings can fund debt reduction, dividends, buybacks or reinvestment rather than being trapped in inventory.
JBSS has enough balance-sheet capacity to finance seasonal inventory and commodity swings, but that flexibility would erode if liabilities keep rising faster than durable earnings power. A processor with thin margins needs financial flexibility; if leverage rises into a commodity downturn, equity holders bear more downside.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
JBSS is a cash-generative but commodity-exposed nut platform whose value depends on passing crop-cost volatility through retail and private-label channels while keeping plants full and working capital under control.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Sanfilippo John B & Son
Where the evidence on Sanfilippo John B & Son stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 16, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 4 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
JBSS’s procurement scale and customer relationships allow it to pass a meaningful share of nut-cost volatility through to customers without losing too much shelf space or volume.
Retail and commercial customers keep using JBSS because outsourced nut sourcing, processing and packaging are operationally complex, supporting recurring demand rather than one-off commodity trading.
JBSS’s manufacturing and packaging scale should convert stable nut demand into consistent operating profit as long as plant utilization and SG&A discipline offset labor, freight and input-cost pressure.
The business creates owner value only if management navigates nut inventory cycles so accounting earnings convert into operating cash over a full crop cycle.
JBSS has enough balance-sheet capacity to finance seasonal inventory and commodity swings, but that flexibility would erode if liabilities keep rising faster than durable earnings power.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large retailers such as Walmart, Costco, Kroger or other club/grocery customers re-bid nut programs to lower-cost packers and refuse further price increases.
A major grocery, club or mass-channel customer consolidates nut sourcing with another processor or brings more packaging in-house.
Loss of a large private-label or commercial ingredient program leaves processing capacity underutilized.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Sanfilippo John B & Son’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Sanfilippo John B & Son, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Sanfilippo John B & Son.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Sanfilippo John B & Son filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-02: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Sanfilippo John B & Son filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-25: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Sanfilippo John B & Son filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-19: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large retailers such as Walmart, Costco, Kroger or other club/grocery customers re-bid nut programs to lower-cost packers and refuse further price increases.
- A major grocery, club or mass-channel customer consolidates nut sourcing with another processor or brings more packaging in-house.
- Loss of a large private-label or commercial ingredient program leaves processing capacity underutilized.
- A sharp rise in almond, peanut or walnut prices forces JBSS to carry higher-cost inventory for longer than customer payment terms allow.
- Sustained commodity inflation forces higher revolver usage or supplier financing before price increases are collected from customers.
JBSS news
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Financial statements
JBSS income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
JBSS: quick answers
- When does Sanfilippo John B & Son (JBSS) report earnings next?
- Sanfilippo John B & Son's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is JBSS's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 583,809 JBSS shares were sold short, up 3.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. JBSS short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded JBSS?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in JBSS by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed JBSS trade